Now that a third of the season has passed, there seems to be a lot of good teams emerging in the NFL which is making it tougher for handicappers but it is also easier to see who the worst teams are as well. There were a lot of blowout victories in week 6 especially in the early window of games as 3 out of 4 teams favored by more than 6 points covered the spread by double digits, only Tampa Bay failing to cover. Even though there were many blowouts, there were also 3 games that went to overtime in which the underdog lost all 3. This all led to another good week for favorites after struggling the first month of the season the last two weeks have turned the trend around as they went 10-4 straight up and 8-6 against the spread. This brings the overall record for favorites to 42-51. Home teams continued to falter in 2021 going 4-9 straight up and 4-9 against the spread in week 6 and yet to have a winning week this season. The overall record for road teams this season is 50-41 straight up and 54-37 against the spread. Another trend that continued this past week was the overs continuing to struggle as they went 5-7-2 this week and are 42-50 overall. The biggest upset this week was Buffalo @ Tennessee (+6) (+215 ML) as the Titans won by 3 even if the Bills had converted on 4th down and scored a touchdown, they still would not have covered and at most they could have kicked the field goal and won by 6 in overtime which would lead to a push. The biggest against the spread cover margin was Arizona (+2.5) @ Cleveland as the Cardinals blew out the Browns by 23 points. It will be interesting to see which trends continue going into week 7 as there are 6 teams on a bye which means there are just 13 games to bet on, fewer games mean less opportunity.
I would say I am on fire right now as I had my third winning week in a row going 3-2 in week 6 and I am now 17-11-2. I feel I did alright this week even with the 2 losses but considering the other two picks I was going to go with also lost this was the best result possible. My best pick was Arizona (+2.5) @ Cleveland because I said last week with the utmost confidence that this was the same bet as the previous week of Bills over Chiefs and I was absolutely correct as the Cardinals blew out the Browns. My worst play was picking Los Angeles (+3) @ Baltimore as the Chargers got mud-stomped by the Ravens losing by 28 points. Considering how good Justin Herbert was playing and how the Ravens defense was playing I could never have foreseen that they would be held to just 6 points. The Bad Beat of the week came in my own picks in the Kansas City @ Washington (+7) game. It was looking like this was going to be an easy cover for me at the end of the first half as Mahomes was continuing to struggle and Washington was up 13-10. Even going into the 4th quarter, I was feeling comfortable with Chiefs just up by 4 but then they had a dominant 4th quarter and blew out Washington 31-13. I am going to continue to strive for perfection as I am still looking for my first 5 for 5 week of the season.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) @ Baltimore Ravens
Yes, I am picking the Bengals again as I have quite often this season, but with the way they are playing why would I not. Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase have been cooking this season. Yes, I picked against the Ravens last week against another good team in the Chargers and got burned, but I feel this is different because 6 points is too much for a divisional game. The Bengals have had close games all season and have only lost by a field goal in each of their two losses. So even if they don’t win this game there is no way the Ravens win by more than 6 points as these two teams know each other too well and take into account how well both these teams are playing.
Washington Football Team @ Green Bay Packers (-9)
After last week’s debacle trusting that the Football Team would be able to keep it would close against a good team I am learning from my mistake and going the other way in this pick. Taylor Heinicke is 0-3 against playoff teams and has lost by double digits in those games. On the other side, the Packers have won both of their home games by double digits and I think it will happen again this week. Considering how bad Washington’s defense has been all season after being so good last season I can’t see how Aaron Rodgers won’t kill them. On top of that Washington is 1-5 against the spread this season and the Packers are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games after the fluky week 1 game against the Saints.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans (+5.5)
Recency bias may be in effect in this pick as I was really impressed with the Titans’ performance on Monday Night. They pulled a pretty big upset as I thought the Bills would win comfortably as I feel they are one of the best teams in the league. I’m picking the Titans this week for one major reason and that is Derrick Henry. He is the league-leading rusher and has been the major factor in the Titans’ success not just this season but the last few seasons. The Chiefs have a bad defense and are not helped when Patrick Mahomes makes mistakes as he has been doing all season so I don’t think it is very likely that their defense will be able to even slow down King Henry. The Chiefs 2-4 against the spread and conversely the Titans are 4-2 against the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
The Raiders are coming off a big win against the rival Broncos after the chaotic week in wake of the Jon Gruden firing due to his horrible emails. I wasn’t sure how the Raiders would play as it could have gone two ways either they would rally around their new head coach and play well or totally collapse as a team which led to staying away from betting that game altogether. I am picking the Raiders this week because I think they are actually a better team without Gruden. I will lay the 3 points because Jalen Hurts is continuing to struggle to throw the ball as just one of his touchdowns was a pass. The Raiders will have the great home-field advantage that the city of Las Vegas provides and I think the only reason they lost the previous home game was due to the Gruden news.
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
The Colts have put two good performances in a row after a rough start to the season even though they did lose to the Ravens, they had outplayed them for most of the game and just barely lost in overtime. The 49ers will be without Kittle and Mostert as well as Trey Lance nursing a knee injury and Garoppolo dealing with his calf injury that has put him out for a few games. No matter which of these quarterbacks start this week I do not think they will be at 100 percent. I will gladly take the 3.5 points on the road as the trend continues of home teams struggling this season. Also, the Colts are 4-2 against the spread coming off their blowout win over the Texans and the 49ers are just 1-4 against the spread. I don’t see how the 49ers are favored by this much as I would also take the Colts outright in this game and I just think the Colts are playing better football right now.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
