WEEK 16 RECAP
Week 16 Record: 2-3
Overall Record: 37-41-2
MY BEST PICK
Indianapolis Colts (ML -110) @ Arizona Cardinals
This was my best pick considering it was a game that could have gone either way hence the money line bet. I did think the Cards would continue on their downslide as they were unable to produce much offense against a Colts defense who were missing Darius Leonard. I trusted that Jonathan Taylor would continue the dominant season he has been having and hoped that Wentz wouldn’t make the mistakes he is prone to making that ultimately lose games and thankfully he did not. Final score: 22-16
MY WORST PICK
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) @ Houston Texans
My worst pick was the big upset of the week as I was just as surprised as anybody else who bet this game with the utmost confidence. I didn’t think the Texans even had a chance to cover the spread, to be honest. I’m still dumbfounded by what happened here. Final score: 41-29
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 16: 9-6
- Overall: 147-91-1
- Against The Spread
- Week 16: 7-8
- Overall: 115-122-2
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 16: 10-5
- Overall: 120-118-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 16: 8-7
- Overall: 105-132-2
OVER/UNDER
- Week 16: 9-6
- Overall: 109-127-3
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans (+13) (ML +525)
Even though both teams were dealing with players out due to covid, I don’t know how the Chargers lost this game. The Chargers are a much better team than the Texans missing 16 players and with a healthy Herbert, they still were not able to beat them. Rex Burkhead and Davis Mills could not be stopped by the Chargers’ defense. This beatdown was largely due to the miscues by the Chargers as they turned the over 3 times including a pick 6. Final score: 41-29
LARGEST COVER ATS
Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys (-10)
As a Cowboys fan, this was the best outcome I could have hoped for as my Cowboys kicked the Washington no-names ass, it was against a team I hate, and this was one of my picks of the week. The Cowboys completely decimated Washington from their first offensive play when Taylor Heinicke threw an interception to Trevon Diggs for his 11th interception of the season something that hasn’t been done for 40 years. It was 42-7 at halftime and even the backups scored a touchdown in the 2nd half as Dallas got an easy cover by 32 points. Final score: 56-14
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Denver Broncos (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
This was the pick that pissed me off the most as I lost my 6-team parlay. I was feeling pretty good at halftime when the Broncos were up 13-7. Even when the Raiders took the lead it was only by one point and the Broncos were still covering at the point. That is when the Broncos kicker missed a field goal that would have given them the lead and ultimately gave them the cover if everything else stayed the same. The Broncos could not get any run game going which is key to their offense especially when you have Drew Lock at quarterback but even despite that they still had a chance to win the game. Final score: 17-13
WEEK 17 PICKS
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
The oddsmakers expect some big one-sided matchups this week as there are no games that have a point spread that is less than a field goal. 8 games have a betting line of more than 6 points. So far this season this will be the most games played on Sunday so you don’t have to worry about getting your bets in before the Thursday night or Saturday games.
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
Dak is back. After having some struggles after his calf injury that caused him to miss a game, he put up 330 yards and 4 touchdowns in last week’s decimation of Washington. The offense looked back to form which is averaging 38.4 points per game at home along with a defense that leads the league in turnovers. The Cards on the other have continued to struggle for the last 3 weeks as they have 0-3 as their offense can’t seem to get going averaging just 15.3 points per game in the last 4 games without DeAndre Hopkins. Along with their struggles on offense, their defense hasn’t shown up in recent weeks either as they have given up 30 points 2 out of the last 3 games. Cowboys still have the top record ATS at 12-3 and 4-1 in their last 5 games. Arizona has not been good in their last 6 games going just 2-4 ATS.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5)
Another team that kicked ass in week 16 was the Cincinnati Bengals as they stomped the Ravens 41-21. Joe Burrow was on fire and threw for 4 touchdowns and over 500 yards. I am still not buying into the Chiefs beating mediocre teams such as the Raiders twice, Broncos, Steelers and barely beating the Chargers in overtime in a game they should have lost. I’ll let everybody drool over these wins but I just don’t see it and it is why I will gladly take the points here with a very capable home dog Bengals team that seems to be on track after back-to-back wins. Another thing that gives me a little more confidence is that they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC teams.
Houston Texans (+12.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo might be out this week and Trey Lance will start who has a 52% completion percentage. In his first and only start this season he was only able to score just 10 points. Even if Garoppolo does play he did not have a good game last week as he threw 2 picks in a loss to the Titans. I don’t have confidence in either of the quarterbacks and that is why I will take Texans getting a whole ton of points here. I know they are a bad team but they are a bad team that has been playing well in the last 2 weeks putting up 41 points against the Chargers and 30 against the Jaguars. A team with nothing to play for can be dangerous if they haven’t completely given up on the season and seeing how the Texans have played recently, they look like a team that is still fighting.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
Despite Matt Stafford playing like crap throwing 3 picks the Rams were still able to put up 30 points on the Vikings mostly due to Sony Michel running for 131 yards and a touchdown. If Stafford can play well along with a good run game the Rams can definitely put it on the Ravens. I don’t think Stafford will have as bad of a game mostly because the Ravens’ secondary like most of their teams is completely decimated with injury. It is still unsure at the time I am writing this who will start for the Ravens and I don’t think it will matter all that much as the Ravens offense struggles even when Lamar does play. The Rams have covered 4 of their last 5 games and have a winning record ATS and the Ravens have a losing one.
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Green Bay Packers
The Packers have not played all that well the last couple of games even though they did win those games but that’s the thing the Vikings do not have to win this one I believe they will still cover. The Packers should have blown out the Browns after Baker threw 4 interceptions in the game and the Browns were still able to make it a 2-point game. Last week’s game has led them to fail to cover the spread in the last 2 weeks. The Vikings won the last meeting earlier this season and I think they are at least capable of doing that again even though it is in Green Bay this time around. Yes, Kirk Cousins has his struggles in primetime but I am betting on Dalvin Cook and the rest of the team to pick up the slack. The Vikings have held a 6-point lead in 14 of their 15 games this season. If they are able to do that again in this game I believe the +6.5 points will be enough to win this bet.
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Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
