WEEK 15 RECAP
Week 15 Record: 2-3
Overall Record: 35-38-2
MY BEST PICK
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)
This was a pick I was debating with myself hard on but I trusted that Mike Tomlin would not let his team be a losing team and would be able to pull out this upset. I couldn’t see Tannehill who seems to be regressing each week since Derrick Henry went out even though they still have a pretty good running game. Tannehill continued to play bad as they got upset on the road in Pittsburgh. Final score: 19-13.
MY WORST PICK
New England Patriots (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts
I was way off on this game I thought that the Pats should have been favorited because I thought that they were that much better than the Colts. I was proven wrong in a pretty big way as the Pats got completely dominated for about 3 quarters of this game and were able to get some garbage time points in the 4th quarter. Wentz didn’t have to do much in this game and wasn’t vulnerable to make the mistakes he was prone to making as they let J.Taylor take over the game and run all over the Pats defense. Final score: 27-17.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 15: 12-4
- Overall: 138-85-1
- Against The Spread
- Week 15: 10-6
- Overall: 108-114-2
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 15: 7-9
- Overall: 110-113-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 15: 8-8
- Overall: 97-125-2
OVER/UNDER
- Week 15: 6-10
- Overall: 100-121-3
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions +13 (ML +550) @ Arizona Cardinals
Once again Kyler Murray was running for his life and was missing on multiple passes. Arizona seemed to overlook this terrible Lions team that does put up fight. The Lions blew out an unprepared Cardinals team up 17-0 at half and in the 2nd half the Cardinals were only able to score one touchdown. Final score: 30-12.
LARGEST COVER ATS
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
The 49ers were able to cover this large spread by 9 points as they continue to roll with a great run game. Garoppolo also had a pretty decent game as he and 49ers get a hold on a wildcard spot in the playoffs. Final score: 31-13.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
You would think with Lamar Jackson out for this game and most of the Ravens team banged up that this would be an easy cover. That is what I thought and I was wrong. The Packers were up 31-17 with 9:26 left in the game as they let Tyler Huntley drive down the field, cutting it to 31-24 with 4:47 left but the Packers Defense let Huntley score once again where they failed to get the 2-point conversion and lost the game but covered the spread.
WEEK 16 PICKS
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
The biggest thing to keep an eye out this week is the most obvious thing which is the Covid list. Covid had a massive effect on the week 15 games from who was starting to when the games were played. Depending on who was on the Covid list it had a big impact on the lines such as the Browns game going from a favorite to an underdog. Linemakers are moving their NFL betting odds more often and to higher degrees as they react to the latest breaking news. The most important thing is to be aware of those surprise line changes.
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
After winning 3 straight games and a 3-touchdown game against the Ravens Rodgers seems to be playing like the favorite to win MVP. The Browns are coming off a bad loss to the Raiders after being hit by Covid leaving Nick Mullens as their starter. I don’t care who is starting at quarterback for the Browns in this game I think they are all kind of similar anyways including Baker who has been pretty mediocre this season. The Packers are too good and just a way better team especially at home. I’m going to lay the points here as the Browns are just 1-4 ATS in last 5 games and the Packers continue to be at the top when it comes to the spread as they are 11-3 ATS.
Indianapolis Colts (ML -110) @ Arizona Cardinals
Different sportsbooks will have either team with plus or minus a point but Caesars has this at a pick ’em so I will take the Colts on the Moneyline. The Colts have won 5 of their last 6 games. They seem like the much hotter team at this point after getting the big win against the Pats. Arizona seems to be trending downward as they have each year with Kliff Kingsbury towards the end of the season. They have lost 2 straight most recently to the terrible Lions. The Colts are 5-1 in the last 6 games Straight Up. They are 4-2 SU in the last 6 games against the Cardinals. The Colt’s defense is playing really well as they have held 4 of their 5 opponents under 20 points and seeing how Kyler and the Cardinals’ offense has been struggling of late, I feel the Colts will win this game.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) @ Houston Texans
The Chargers will look to rebound after a tough loss against the Chiefs which they should’ve won. The Texans are really bad when they don’t play the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have been outscored by an average score of 28-12 in 12 games. The Chargers are averaging 32 points in the last 5 games and the Texans’ defense will not be able to stop them. Houston is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games and the Chargers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups against the Texans.
Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota Vikings (+3)
The Vikings are on a 2-game win streak. They have done this on the back of Dalvin Cook riding him to victories over the Steelers and Bears. I do not trust the Rams after they struggled for most of the game against a bad Seahawks team last week. The Vikings keep it close with all of their opponents no matter who they play. The Vikings are the most capable home dog this week and that is what I try to target each week. The Vikings have been pretty good against the spread with an 8-6 spread and the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Minnesota. The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games this season.
Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys (-11)
The Cowboys covered the spread in their last meeting and would have been worse without the bad pick 6 by Dak late in the game. I think it will be a similar result as the last time they played Washington but Dak won’t make that dumb mistake as he played better last week and I feel like he will be getting out of the slump. The Cowboys’ defense has been playing amazingly in recent weeks carrying the team as the offense has had some trouble. Washington was one of the teams that were hit hard by Covid as they were left with Garrett Gilbert starting for them against the Eagles. Does not matter who is starting for Washington because the Dallas defense is playing too well right now. The Cowboys are tied for the top spot ATS as they are 11-3. They are also 9-0 against NFC teams as most of their struggles have come from playing AFC teams.
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Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
