We are back to Blowout City in week 10 of the NFL season as 8 of the 14 matchups were won by 17 points or more and 6 were won by 21 points or more. Along with those blowouts were a few big upsets the biggest one coming in Washington (+9.5) over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers winning by 10 points which is two straight upset losses for the Bucs this one coming after a bye week. Home teams continue to disappoint against the spread going just 6-8 but did go 8-5-1 straight up this past week. This puts the overall record for home teams against the spread at 64-85-1 (43%) and 74-75-1 straight up. The trend for favorites continues as they go 6-8 ATS and 7-5-1 SU with an overall record of 63-86-1 (42.3%) ATS and 86-59-1 SU. The Unders dominate once again with a 10-4 record this week and 83-66 overall. The reason I think this trend happens every week is that there are so many blowouts in which only one team is scoring a lot and the other doesn’t score very much which brings the point total down with more competitive games the over would hit more often. The biggest cover against the spread was the Patriots (-2) winning by 38 covering the spread by 36 points as they crushed the Browns. All together week 10 was more of the same we have seen with all the trends staying the same and a lot of dominant victories.
My bad streak continues for the third straight week I have a losing record for the week going a terrible 1-4. This brings down my overall record to 26-22-2 with a 54% winning percentage. My worst pick was picking the Bucs on the road at Washington favored by 10 points and lost by 10. I really did not think Tom Brady coming off a bye and an embarrassing loss to a rival that they would look that poor against a bad Washington Football Team that doesn’t score a lot of points. The Bad Beat of the Week was also one of my picks which was the Saints @ Titans (-3). The Titans took an 11-point lead with 10:06 left in the game and the Saints cut to an 8-point deficit with 5:35 to go. The Saints got the ball back and Trevor Siemian threw a 15-yard strike to Calloway to get the late cover by 1 point. My Best Pick of the Week was my only win of the week which was Philadelphia (+2.5) @ Denver. The Eagles won by 17 points and I knew that the Broncos’ blowout win against my Cowboys was just a fluke and they were not that good. The Cowboys were just too overconfident and didn’t show up. I correctly predicted that the Broncos would not be able to run as well against the Eagles as they rushed for less than 100 yards as a team. Bridgewater is not a quarterback that will just take over the game and the Broncos did not play as well not getting as much pressure and no run defense. Eventually, I will get back on track hopefully that will be this week as I expect to go perfect every week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears (+6)
The Ravens have not looked good as an overall team this season. A lot has been put on Lamar Jackson to drag this team to wins and for the most part, he has been successful but in the losses, especially in the embarrassing loss to the Dolphins last week, he was not able to overcome the bad offensive line and the lack of weapons at the running back and receiver positions. The Bears are coming off a bye after playing tough against the Steelers and might have had the win over them if it wasn’t for the refs. I feel like this game will be a repeat of the Ravens’ previous two matchups to lesser NFC North teams where they were barely able to edge out those teams and did not cover the spread which was similar to this one. Baltimore is 3-6 against the spread this season which is one of the worst records ATS in the league. I think the Ravens win but again they will not cover the spread. I also just love taking home dogs as they are 30-29 this year but it has worked for me more times than not.
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns (-10)
After the Browns getting their ass kicked last week, I think they bounce back and cover this big 10-point spread. It seems like every time the Lions have a tough close game, they come out the next week and have a stinker which is what I am banking on happening. Also, the Browns do tend to play really well against the bad teams in the league. The Browns have wins against both the other two NFC North opponents the Bears and Vikings and covered the spread in both those games. It might be better if Baker didn’t play this week against the Lions as he is questionable to play in the game. If the Browns can get their running game going, I think they can run away with this game easily as the Lions allow 135.7 rushing yards per game.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
I’m not going to be like all the analysts saying that the Chiefs are back. They got a big win over the Raiders on the road in Vegas but that doesn’t mean they all of sudden fixed all their problems that have been frequent this season. I still think that Patrick Mahomes is very susceptible to having the bad turnover, inaccurate games that he has had all season. I still feel the Chiefs are overvalued and overrated in this game as the Cowboys did get back on track with a 40-point win over the Falcons. The Broncos game was not indicative of what they are it was a complete fluke and they won’t have a performance like that for the rest of the season. The Cowboys are still great against the spread with an 8-1 record. There is no doubt in my mind the Cowboys won’t cover this small 2.5 point spread as small underdogs have been the way to go all season long.
New Orleans Saints (+1.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Every time the Eagles get a dominant victory the next week they get beat and do not cover the spread as they don’t seem to know how to handle the little success they get nor able to keep that momentum going week to week. After their big win in week 1, they lost in week 2 and they beat down the Lions in week 8 and lose against the Chargers the next. This far into the season teams have told you what they are so believe them and if the Eagles have done this multiple times this season, I bet that it will happen again. I am not necessarily high on the Saints with a backup quarterback starting for them but they do seem a very capable team as they beat the Bucs 2 weeks ago and lose by just 2 to the top seed in the AFC last week. I believe the Saints will this game as road dogs have been really good this year as they are 56-34-1 ATS this season as well the Saints having a winning record ATS with a record of 5-4.
Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Buffalo Bills
This seems like a bit of overreaction to the Bills blowing out the Jets last week and scoring 45. The Bills have shown they can lose to bad teams like the Jaguars and have big victories as well but 7 points seem too much in this matchup. The Colts have played really well recently even in their losses they seem to play well and keep the game close. I am going to keep with the trend of underdogs playing against a team in the same conference but outside the division being really successful this season. The Colts also have been good against the spread this season as they are 6-4. I think the Bills win this game but it will be a closer game this point spread suggests which is why I will take the Colts to cover as I think they will play tough and keep it close.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
