WEEK 9 RECAP
Week 9 Record: 3-1-1
Overall Record: 24-20-1
MY BEST PICK
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Final Score: Detroit 15-9
There was very little scoring in this one even with the Lions having the worst defense Aaron Rodgers still ended up throwing 3 picks in the Redzone scoring just 9 points. Though the Packers have 2 good running backs, they decide not to use them as Rodgers was their leading rusher for the Packers. It was just another bad game for the Packers whether it was the Packers’ ineffectiveness in the passing game or the Lions’ defense actually showing up for once. I knew Aaron Rodgers would be bad and the Lions now are 9-2 ATS against the Packers.
MY WORST PICK
Mentioned in Bad Beat of the Week.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 9: 9-4
- Overall: 82-53-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 9: 4-7-2
- Overall: 57-75-4
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 9: 7-6
- Overall: 71-58-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 9: 7-4-2
- Overall: 66-66-4
OVER/UNDER
- Week 9: 4-9
- Overall: 53-81-2
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (+10.5, ML +420)
Final Score: New York 20-17
Just another example of the Buffalo Bills losing in close games. They’re great at blowing out teams but when it gets close, they fail to get the job done. The Jets’ defense has impressed all season and they showed u and shut down Josh Allen in the passing game. Though he was the leading rusher for the Bills throwing the ball he was just 18/34 205 yards and 2 interceptions. Zach Wilson did just enough as he led a 13-play 86-yard game-winning drive. The Jets overcame a huge point spread against a division rival always got to be careful with these types of spreads in a divisional matchup.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-5)
Final Score: New England 26-3
This loss was so bad for the Colts that it got head coach Frank Reich fired and Jeff Saturday hired. This was an offensive disaster for the Colts. Ehlinger starting in his 2nd career game only throws for 113 yards and got sacked 9 times. That is what Bill Belichick does against young inexperienced quarterbacks. He wasn’t helped with no run game as Johnathan Taylor was out once again for the game. The Patriots had 2 guys with 3 sacks as their defense dominated along with a defensive touchdown. Mac Jones and the Pats’ offense didn’t do much as they mostly kicked field goals with the defense putting them in good positions. The Colts have lost 3 straight and with Jeff Saturday coming in I would suggest that they are a really bad bet going forward. This seems like a full-on tank job for the Colts organization. With this win for the Pats, all teams in the AFC East have a winning record.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins (-5) @ Chicago Bears
Final Score: Miami 35-32
This bad beat is very personal to me as this was the lone game to ruin my 5 game ties win parlay. All the Dolphins had to do is kick the field goal up 35-32 which would have put them up 6 points and covered the spread. They stupidly decide to go for it on 4th and 1 and Tua throws to the open TE in the flat and the guy can’t catch it. This was very agonizing to watch. The Dolphins got the ball back with 3 minutes but still did not score which led to them failing to cover the spread by just points. I felt pretty secure when the Dolphins were up 10 but they just let the Bears go right down the field, but in the end, did not think the Bears would score as much as they did. I was right about the Dolphins’ offense being too much for the Bears to overcome.
WEEK 10 BETS
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yet another week that the Seahawks get disrespected by the oddsmakers. For whatever reason, they don’t believe in this team as they are underdogs in a game where the Bucs are not even the home team as this is a neutral site game in Germany. It’s baffling to me knowing how bad this Bucs team has been with a losing record and Tom Brady not playing like we are used to seeing him play. The Bucs have failed to score 20 points 5 times this season. They are the worst rushing team in the NFL which puts all the pressure on Tom to make all the plays himself. Their offensive line had a lot of problems with key pieces missing. The Seahawks just keep on winning and Geno Smith keeps on putting up great numbers. The Seahawks put up 31 points on the Cardinals last week. Kenneth Walker has been a big part of the success and will be this week as he goes up against the 24th-ranked rushing defense. The Bucs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and the Seahawks are 5-1 in their last 6 ATS.
Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders (-6)
In a lot of games this season, the Raiders have found themselves up in the game but then proceed to blow the big leads that they have. They seem to fall apart in the second half in games both offensively and defensively. But this week I don’t think they have to worry about any of that because they are playing the clown show that is going on in Indianapolis right now. Jeff Saturday with no coaching experience I feel is there to tank. They have Sam Ehilinger once again starting at quarterback which has not been good so far. In the Colts’ last 3 games they have scored a combined 29 points. Their offensive line can’t protect which will be in the Raiders’ defense as they have had problems on that side of the ball. The Raiders play much better at home than they do on the road. The Colts are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Los Angeles Rams
Both teams have been disappointments this season but I think the Rams have been bigger disappointments since they are the defending Super Bowl champs. The Rams have been bad on offense with basically no run game as they are the 2nd worst rushing team in the league. Stafford hasn’t looked good at all he has as many touchdowns as interceptions. They have lost 4 out of their last 5 games. The Cardinals may allow a lot of points but the Rams don’t have the offense to take advantage of that especially when they just scored 13 points last week and are 28th in scoring. The Cardinals are able to put up some points themselves they are in the top half of the league. The Cardinals are a much better road team they are at home as they are 10-4 ATS on the road. The Rams are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
Dallas Cowboys (-5) @ Green Bay Packers
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a bye week well rested and healed up, getting back some key pieces to the team including Zeke and Malik Hooker. Green Bay on the other hand has a bunch of injuries with Rashan Gary out for the season, Eric Stokes looks to be out, and Romeo Doubs is doubtful as well. The Packers just lost to a terrible Lions team and they are on a 5-game losing streak. The Cowboys are having a lot of their success through the running game with Zeke and Pollard. The Packers are 29th-ranked in rushing defense. The Cowboys’ defense and Micah Parsons will put constant pressure on Rodgers as he has to throw to receivers he doesn’t trust and has no chemistry with. The Packers seem not to use their backs which would concern me as that is one way to exploit the Cowboys’ defense. Since week 14 of 2020, the Cowboys are the best in the NFL covering the spread 75.9% of the time. The Packers are just 1-5 in their last 6 games.
New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
I don’t have many supportive details to give for this pick. This is mostly a gut-feeling pick for me after what I saw from the Saints on Monday night against the Ravens. I’m definitely going the other way against the Saints this week. I’m not high on the Steelers either but they are getting points at home against a team with Andy Dalton as their quarterback so I’ll take them. The Saints are just 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
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