WEEK 17 RECAP
Week 17 Record: 1-4
Overall Record: 38-45-2
MY BEST PICK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5)
My only win of the week was a great pick because I also predicted the outright upset in this one. I stated before that I do not trust the Chiefs and the result of this game is why they can be beaten. Ya, their defense was looking better but did not hold up in this one as Joe burrow threw for over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns.
MY WORST PICK
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Green Bay Packers
Even though I had a pretty terrible week overall I don’t necessarily feel I had a worst pick because all my picks were close or a had a shot at covering besides this one but only because I made this pick before the news came out that Kirk Cousins would be out due to Covid. When you have Sean Manion starting at quarterback you expect it to be a blowout and I definitely would have bet the other had I known that.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 17: 13-3
- Overall: 161-94-1
- Against The Spread
- Week 17: 9-6-1
- Overall: 125-128-3
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 17: 11-5
- Overall: 131-124-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 17: 13-2-1
- Overall: 118-135-3
OVER/UNDER
- Week 17: 7-9
- Overall: 116-137-3
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) (ML +320) @ Indianapolis Colts
Despite Derek Carr not looking great for most of this game throwing 2 picks and trying to give the game away. Carson Wentz on the other side did not want to take advantage of having a completion percentage under 60%. Johnathan Taylor was still able to run for over 100 yards but it wasn’t enough as the Raiders stepped up and kept them from scoring after both interceptions. A lot of the money was put on the Colts to win big in this one considering how they been playing and the number jumped up a point when it was confirmed that Carson Wentz would indeed play but the Raiders came out and shocked the bettors as one of the only 2 underdogs to win this week. Final score: 23-20
LARGEST COVER ATS
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots (-17)
Even with a huge point spread like this, the Pats were still able to put it heavily on the Jags with a 50 burger. This was a big bounce-back performance for the Pats coming off of Last week failing to win the division in the bad loss to the division rival Bills. This 23-point cover ATS just adds to Bill Belichick’s amazing record he has against rookie quarterbacks. Final score: 50-10
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets (ML +650)
For anyone who had the Jets on the Money Line at +650, you were 39 seconds away from a pretty nice payout. That is when Tom Brady hit Cyril Grayson for a 33-yard touchdown to take the lead with 15 seconds left. This is a guy in his 3rd season who doesn’t have any stats and nobody has ever heard of and is only playing because Antonio Brown threw a fit and left in the middle of the game. It seemed like the Jets had this one in the bag as they led for the entire game except for the last 15 seconds. This was a crushing blow for those who took a chance on this to be an upset, just makes you sick to your stomach thinking about it.
WEEK 18 PICKS
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
Make sure you get your bets in before the Saturday game as this will be the first week where there will be games played on Saturday in the final week usually all the games are played on Sunday in the final week. This is always the hardest week to bet as many teams have nothing to play for so you never know how motivated the players will be or how they will be in the game for. There are 4 games that have double-digit point spreads so the oddsmakers definitely expect a few blowouts this week.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) @ Denver Broncos
This is one of the very few times I have bet the Chiefs because I just have not liked or trusted them all season. But the Chiefs are still playing for the number one seed in the conference despite losing to the Bengals last week. They will not rest anyone this week and will have plenty of motivation this week. Mahomes is 8-0 against the Denver Broncos in his career and the last 5 wins have been by 13 points or more. In 4 of the last 5 games, Denver has scored 13 points or fewer. I have no problem laying the 10 points considering the Chiefs are able to put up a lot of points and the Broncos can barely put up any.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+2)
It is not likely we will see much of Aaron Rodgers as they locked up the number 1 seed in the NFC last week with their win over the Vikings. The Lions play hard in most of their games, especially ones where they get embarrassed the week before like they did against the Seahawks this past Sunday losing 51-29. With the Jaguars playing the Colts who are fighting to get in the playoffs it seems like they will wrap up the number 1 pick in the draft so the Lions don’t have any motivation to throw this game. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 matchups with the Lions and 2-7 in the past 9. The home team in these matchups between the two teams is 4-0 ATS in the past 4 meetings. Detroit has been good ATS in recent weeks going 6-2 in the last 8 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
I see this game being similar to the 1st matchup this season as the Ravens lost by 1 on a failed 2-point conversion attempt. I think it will be a close game no matter who wins but I don’t know how much fight the Ravens have left in them after being decimated with injuries and losing 5 straight games. 4.5 points is too many points for a tough divisional matchup like this one especially when both teams have something to play for even though both teams would need a lot of help, the Ravens more than the Steelers.
Tennessee Titans (-10.5) @ Houston Texans
The Titans also have a chance at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with the number one seed in the AFC. I am going to lay the points here even though it is a big spread but I am confident that the Titans will want to grab that top seed and really embarrass their rival. 8 of the Texans’ 12 losses this season have come by more than 10 points. Besides their games against the terrible Jets and Jaguars, the Texans are scoring an average of 13.4 points per game while the Titans have given up just 9.8 points per game in their last 4 games. The Titans have been really good ATS this season as they 10-5 in their last 15 games while Houston has been pretty bad ATS recently as they have gone 2-4 in their last 6 games.
San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
Kyle Shanahan has Sean McVay’s number after beating him 5 straight times. I like the 49ers in this one for that reason and because they are holding teams to just 15.8 points over the last 8 games and held the Rams to just 10 points the last time they played. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the past 8 games and 4-1 in the last 5 games as an underdog. The Rams on the other hand are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games against the 49ers. I think the 49ers will not just cover the spread but outright win this game.
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Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
