What a week for upsets as we had 3 of the biggest upsets of the year so far. Jacksonville’s win over Buffalo was the largest upset of 2021 by money line odds (+755), while Denver over Dallas (+365) and Tennessee over the LA Rams (+290) were the 3rd and 4th largest. Superbowl contenders lost to inferior opponents. Week 9 was a perfect example of why to keep an eye on moving lines as 7 different games had at least 1.5 points of line movement. Teams with the line movement in their favor went 1-6 against the opening lines 0-7 against the closing lines. Offenses have been struggling all season and this has been most evident this past week as 5 teams had fewer than 250 total yards. 4 of those teams have their game including Jacksonville, Kansas City, New York, and Tennessee. This is also reflected in the Unders not having a losing week going 7-7-7 and 61-73-2 overall. We had another week where road teams won more than half of the games, we’ve had only one week so far where home teams won the majority of the games. Home teams went 7-7 straight up and 4-10 ATS which brings them to 55-77-1 ATS overall. Favorites had another disappointing week going 6-7 straight up and 3-10 ATS bringing the overall to 56-77-1 ATS. The Biggest Upset of the week was Jacksonville over Buffalo (-14.5) which saw a defensive struggle with the Jags winning 9-6. The biggest ATS cover margin was Cleveland over Cincinnati (-2.5) as the Browns torched the Bengals and won by 25 points. The Bad Beat of the Week came in the Minnesota @ Baltimore game as the Ravens were up 7 with 3:29 left in the as a 5.5-point favorite but let the Vikings drive down the field and score a touchdown to tie the game. The Ravens still could have covered in overtime as they received the ball first to score a touchdown to win the game but they threw an interception. They ended up getting the ball back but only needed a field goal to win which is what they did but did not cover the spread. There are a couple of things to look out for going into week 10. One is that half the games on the NFL week 10 schedule feature a betting line of more than 7 points. The other is 3 underdogs are getting at least nine points at home and 5 teams are road favorites.
I had another bad week of picking putting me in a bit of a slump right now but I had back-to-back losing weeks earlier in year weeks 2-3 and I bounced back with 4 straight winning weeks including a perfect 5-0 week. I went 2-3 last week bringing me to 25-18-2 with a winning percentage of 57.78%. My worst Pick of the Week was Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-10). I believed my Cowboys were unstoppable and I guess so did the Cowboys as they were completely overconfident and were getting blown out as they were losing 30-0 at one point until they got a couple of garbage-time touchdowns. I didn’t think that after Denver traded their best defensive player Von Miller that they would not be as formidable as they were. My best pick was the previously mentioned Minnesota (+5.5) @ Baltimore as I correctly predicted that the Ravens would win but not cover and said that it would come down to a winning field goal. After a couple of bad weeks, I’m bound to have a winning week and get back on track.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) @ Washington Football Team
The Bucs have been sitting on the bad upset from the rival Saints and backup Trevor Siemian for a couple of weeks going into this week’s game due to them having a bye last week. I think Tom Brady is ready to take the embarrassing loss out on a bad Washington team who is also coming off a bye. The big reason why I think the Bucs will cover this big spread is that Washington has lost its matchups with Buffalo, New Orleans, Kansas City, and Green Bay all by 11 points or more. Washington has had very little offense in recent weeks as they have scored less than 14 points in their last 3 games and scored just 10 in the last 2. In 3 of the 4 games that the Bucs have played against sub .500 games, they have won by 23 or more points and think they will have no problem doing that to Washington this week. Washington has been terrible against the spread this season as they 1-7 in their last 8 games.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Green Bay Packers
Russell Wilson is cleared to return to the Seahawks this week and I will assume he plays in this game against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers will also be coming back after being on the covid list and missing last week’s game as the Jordan Love-led Packers lost 13-6 against the Chiefs. I think Rodgers is has been way too distracted with all the drama this past week of him lying, his fines, and his comments afterward to be focused on this game. I relate to the drama-filled offseason he had and coming off that he had a terrible game in week 1 as the Packers got blown out by the Saints 38-3. The same can happen here I don’t think the Packers will get blown out but I think Aaron Rodgers will have an off game. In Wilson’s absence, the Seahawks have actually improved as they have held 3 opponents to an average of 14.3 points per game. If they can continue to play well, I believe they will be able to cover this 3-point spread. They have also been good against the spread this season as they are 5-3 ATS and 4-1 in their last 5 games. A big reason why I am picking the Seahawks is that the Favorites playing outside the division but in the same conference are just 19-38 ATS.
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
The Titans are coming off a very impressive upset win on one of the NFC’s best teams the LA Rams without their best player Derrick Henry while the Saints are coming off a bad upset loss to the rival 4-4 Atlanta Falcons. The Titans’ defense had been mediocre throughout the season but finally stepped-up last week picking off Stafford twice and holding a very explosive offense to just 16 points. I definitely think they can have a repeat performance against backup quarterback Trevor Siemian and a Saints offense that is based on the run game but couldn’t get going against a bad Falcons defense. The Titans are getting the regular 3-point home-field advantage that even teams would get. I think the AFC’s top team is playing well enough to cover a field goal spread as they are 7-2 ATS and 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)
Kansas City is still overrated and overvalued as they have been all season long. They should not be nearly a field goal favorite on the road in Vegas against a winning team. The Chiefs haven’t had a quality win since week 1 against the Browns. Patrick Mahomes is still playing badly as he only completed just 54% of his passes and was only able to score 13 points against a Packers team who was playing without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs have failed to score more than 20 points in their last 3 matchups against winning teams. The Raiders are coming off a bad upset loss on the road going across the country in New York. The Raiders are a different team at home as they have scored more than 30 points in 3 of their 4 home games this season. The Chiefs have been pretty bad against the spread proving how much the oddsmakers overvalue them as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos
The Broncos aren’t as good as they looked this past week against the Cowboys. They mostly won through their run game as they gashed Dallas on the ground. It will be a different story this week as the Eagles defense ranks 6th in opponents’ yards per carry and are in the top half of the league in yards per play and per play allowed. The Eagles kept in close throughout the game against a good Chargers team as they were tied until the Chargers kicked a game-winning field goal with 2 seconds left in the game. I think the Broncos could have some trouble stopping the Eagles as they have only failed to score more than 20 points just once this season. Denver is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and Favorites of 6.5 points or less are just 45-48 straight up and 37-56 ATS. Small favorites aren’t covering as much as small underdogs and I think that will be the case here.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
