At the halfway point of the season, the injuries are starting to pile up and at major positions. In week 8 the big story was how backup quarterbacks were winning in a very surprising fashion. Mike White of the New York Jets step in for 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson and upset the number one team in the AFC the Cincinnati Bengals as he threw for over 400 yds 3 touchdowns. Trevor Siemian took over in the 2nd half for Jameis Winston who tore his ACL and beat Tom Brady and the Bucs. Then as the week went on it was looking more like Cooper Rush was going to start for the Dallas Cowboys and on Sunday Night Football went into Minnesota and threw for over 300 yds 2 touchdowns to beat the Vikings. After a few weeks of a lot of blowouts, there were much more competitive games and fewer lopsided scores in week 8. The Biggest upset of the week was the Jets (+10) over the Bengals. The Biggest ATS cover margin was Philadelphia over Detroit as a 3-point favorite and winning by 38 points. The Bad Beat of the Week was Houston (+16.5) pulling off the backdoor cover of the year after trailing the Rams 38-0 with less than 10 minutes left in the game and then the Texans scored 22 points and covered by half a point. After posting their 1st winning week of the season in week 7, home teams again struggled in week 8. They’ve won only 46.6% of games in 2021 as their record in week 8 was 6-9 straight up and 5-9-1 ATS with an overall record of 51-67-1. The Favorites could not finish the month of October out as their dominance of the month came to an end as they finished 7-8 straight up and 4-10-1 ATS which brings their overall to 53-67-1. Low point totals continue to win every week of the season as the Overs had another losing week at 7-8 and 54-66-2 overall. 8 of the 14 matchups this week are AFC vs NFC so it will be interesting how that will affect these trends.
It was a really awful week for me with my picks after being so good for the last 4 weeks my hot streak ended. I knew it was inevitable but I didn’t think it would be with such a bad week as I went 1-4. This brings my overall record to 23-15-2 but I still have a positive winning percentage at 57.5%. My worst pick was the Lions (+3) as I thought they still had some fight left in them and they clearly do not as they got mud-stomped by the crappy Eagles. My best pick was my only win of the week but not the way I expected because I expected Dak Prescott to play and win easily against the Vikings but to my surprise, Cooper Rush took over and cover the spread with a game-winning touchdown drive. It wasn’t all bad though as I always hedge my bets by picking the complete opposite of what I think will happen on a 10-team parlay just in case of this exact scenario and won some money. In sports gambling even if you’re truly awful in your picks you can still win money.
Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys (-10)
There is still some question on the status of Dak Prescott and I know I believed that he would play last week and was wrong I really do think he will this week but keep eye on the line as it shifted a lot as it looked more and more like Cooper Rush was going to start. The Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season and I will ride that wave until it ends. The Broncos have failed to score 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games with that offense I don’t see them keeping it close with a high-power Cowboys offense who is clicking on all cylinders even with a backup quarterback.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
I know I just got burned by the Bengals last week with an embarrassing upset to Mike White and the Jets but I am going to go with them again laying the 3 points mostly because of what I think of the Browns. Baker Mayfield is banged up and it definitely showed as they only managed to score 10 points against the rival Steelers. Honestly, I think they would be better off with Case Keenum starting but since they want to continue with Baker then they will continue to not beat good teams. The Browns have failed to score more than 17 points in 4 of the last 5 games. I think last week was a wake-up call for the Bengals as they might have been overlooking a very bad Jets team but I think they will bounce back because their offense still scored over 30 points, they just need the defense to show up and they should cover easily.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Again, I am not impressed with the Eagles blowout victory against a terrible team just like I wasn’t impressed when they did it in week 1 then proceeded to lose the next week. The Eagles are still a bad team despite their dominant week last week. The Chargers are coming off 2 straight losses as Justin Herbert has been struggling a little bit in those games. I think this is the team to get right against as the Eagles have given up 30 or more points in 4 games this season. The Chargers are much better than a 1-point favorite even on the road in Philly. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and the Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against an AFC opponent.
Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are coming off a bye after getting blown out in week 7 by the Bengals. Their defense is very inconsistent this season and it has been the same way with their offense. A lot of pressure has been put on Lamar to bail them out of games especially when he is both their run game and pass game due to their injuries at the running back position. The Vikings keep games close against good teams as they just did against the Cowboys last week losing by just 4. Their 4 losses have come by a total of 15 points. I don’t think the Vikings win this but 5.5 points is too big of a point spread not to take and I believe that this might be a similar game to Ravens vs Lions game earlier this season as they just won by 2 points on a game-winning field goal.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (ML –110)
Due to Kyler Murray’s status being up in the air because of an ankle injury he is suffering from, this game is at even money. The odds are equal but in some places, you can get the Cardinals as a 1- or 2-point favorite, but I think that will change later in the week as Kyler’s status becomes clearer. I will take the 49ers on the money line because I am assuming he will not play in this game. Even if he does play this is still a tough divisional game on the road for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are coming off getting upset by the Packers at home when Aaron Rodgers was playing without his top weapon. In the last meeting a few weeks ago with a fully healthy Kyler Murray, the game was a one-score game as they 17-10. The 49ers are coming off a good win over the Bears getting the run game going on a pretty good Bears defense. I think the 49ers are a little better than their record because they have had a pretty tough schedule so far this season and due to the injury to Garoppolo and Trey Lance being a rookie in his first couple of starts. I may be taking a leap of faith on this one but as bad as a week I had last week I think I can take a little more risk on this one.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
