WEEK 18 RECAP
Week 18 Record: 3-2
Overall Record: 41-47-2
MY BEST PICK
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+2)
I correctly predicted how much Aaron Rodgers would play as they took him out some time in the first half. I also was right about the Lions playing well after they get badly beaten. Finally, I was correct about picking the outright upset on this game mostly due to knowing that Jordan Love couldn’t beat this 3-win Lions team. Even when Rodgers was playing the Lions were still able to go toe to toe with the Packers. This was my best pick due to the margin of victory but in my other two wins I also picked the outright upsets correctly as well.
MY WORST PICK
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) @ Denver Broncos
The Chiefs looked like they were going to lose this game before they got a scoop and score fumble when the Broncos were in the Red Zone just about to score, which would have put them up by two scores. I thought they would dominate the Broncos and Drew Lock would be a disaster but I should have listened to what I have been saying all season long in me not trusting this Chiefs team.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 18: 9-7
- Overall: 170-101-1
- Against The Spread
- Week 18: 6-10
- Overall: 131-138-3
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 18: 8-8
- Overall: 139-132-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 18: 9-7
- Overall: 127-142-3
OVER/UNDER
- Week 18: 11-5
- Overall: 127-142-3
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) (ML +650)
All the Colts needed to do to get a wildcard spot in the playoffs was to beat a 2-win Jaguars team but the Jags put out a great defensive performance which propelled them to the biggest upset of the week. The Jags held Jonathan Taylor to 77 yards, sacked Wentz 6 times, and got an interception. This is why I have never believed in Wentz in big spots which as this was essentially a playoff game. I am glad I stayed away from betting this game because I was kind of leaning towards taking the Colts but my doubt in Wentz saved me from picking them. Final score: 26-11
LARGEST COVER ATS
Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles
This was probably an easy bet to hit when the news came out about how many Eagles would not play in this game especially not starting Jalen Hurts. The only question was how long the Cowboys starters would play and they ended up playing 3 quarters which was enough to put up major points on the Eagles and even the Cowboys backups were able to score a couple of times to break the record for most players to score a touchdown in a season. Final score: 51-26
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
As the game got closer and closer, more money was being placed on the game ending in a tie due to the unique scenario that if that happened, they would both teams would get into the playoffs. Usually, the odds for a tie are +6000 but the sportsbooks adjusted the odds +1400 because of how many bets were coming in on a tie. Those who bet on the game ending in a tie would have gotten a big payout and the sportsbooks would have been at risk of losing a lot of money. This scenario was about to happen if the Raiders would’ve let the time run out but instead, they kick the winning field goal, saving the sportsbooks asses.
WILD CARD WEEKEND PICKS
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
Raiders are on a short week playing on Sunday Night Football and played every second of overtime. Also, they will have to travel to the east coast time zone. They put all they had in just trying to get in the playoffs even though they really didn’t need to and could have just tied. The Raiders defense especially their secondary can’t handle the Bengals explosive offense that has been on fire with the play of Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase. Not only do they have them they also have Higgins, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals have even more rest if you consider they rested everyone in week 18. The Raiders will not be able to compete with the Bengals’ aggressive offense which will give them the advantage in covering the 6-point spread. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 6-2 in their last 8 games. Las Vegas has a losing record ATS at 8-9.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-4)
In the 1st game, the Bills played terribly and lost due to the bad weather. The 2nd game is what I think this game will look like. Josh Allen was able to play like himself and win the game by double digits. The Bills have the more talented team with the better weapons. Mac Jones didn’t play well in either of the first two matchups as he only threw 3 times the first time and only threw for under 200 yards and 2 picks in the second. The Pats don’t have the offensive firepower to cover the 4-point spread.
Philadelphia Eagles (+8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As a 7-point underdog in Week 6, the Eagles hit the backdoor cover in a 22-28 loss to the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. The Bucs have injuries in their offensive weapons including the departure of Antonio Brown. Though the Eagles are limited through the air, their college-style run offense will be hard to prepare for and deal with because it is not the typical offense you see all the time. I think this game might look like last year’s wildcard matchup of Bucs and Washington where the Bucs had a tough close game against Heinicke. I believe it will be the same in this game a much closer game than many people think it will be and the Eagles will cover the spread but still probably lose because it is still Tom Brady we’re talking about.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Cowboys beat up on teams that are less talented than they are. I feel like this is the case here. Jimmy G is inferior to Dak as their defense and offensive weapons do not compare to the Cowboys. The only advantage the 49ers will have is their run game but can be minimized if the Cowboys take an early lead on them which will make Jimmy G throw the ball more against the best turnover team in the league. Jimmy G is prone to making mistakes and I am betting he will do just that in this game. Don’t forget that the Cowboys are still at the top of the league when it comes to covering against the spread as they are 13-4 and 5-1 in their last 6 games.
Arizona Cardinals (+4) @ Los Angeles Rams
In both regular-season matchups, the underdog outright won. The 1st game had a 4-point spread and the second one was a 3-point spread. This one falls right in line with those 2 games. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS on the road this season. Stafford has given me no reason to trust him as he has never won a playoff game continues to fail in big spots and throws a lot of picks this season. I feel like Stafford will make the big mistake to lose the game and Chandler Jones will get after him. As long as Kyler Murray can avoid Aaron Donald, he can take over this game and beat the Rams outright.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
Rothlisberger will be playing his last game as a Steeler because Pittsburgh has no chance in this one even covering this big spread. Most of the Steeler’s wins have been ugly and sloppy. Rothlisberger doesn’t have an arm anymore as most of his throws are 10 yards or less as he has no deep ball. Chiefs have too many weapons on offense for the Steelers offense to try to keep up with especially at Arrowhead. Chiefs will cover this big spread because the Chiefs won the 1st matchup 36-10 as a 10-point favorite. Kansas City has been pretty good against the spread lately going 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
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Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
