Another week in the books and another week of blowout wins. 6 games were won by 20 points or more and 9 decided by double digits. Even with all the big points scored by the good teams in the league it still leads to another week where the Overs underachieved again with another losing week at 5-8 and 47-58-2 overall. The lack of scoring was extremely evident this week as 4 teams failed to score a touchdown. The October trend continues as the Favorites get a third straight winning week with a 9-4 record straight up and 7-6 against the spread which brings the overall record to 49-57 ATS. For the first time this season, the Home teams finally have a winning week going 9-4 straight up and 8-5 against the spread, and 46-58. The biggest upset of the week was Cincinnati (+6) (+235 ML) over Baltimore winning by 24 points. The biggest Against the Spread cover margin was New England (-7) winning by 41 points over New York. The Bad Beat of the week was the Falcons (-2.5) missing the cover by just a point as they won by just 2 points with a winning field goal in the final seconds of the game. The Falcons could have covered if Matt Ryan doesn’t fumble midway through the 4th quarter and gave the Dolphins a short field to score a touchdown to take the lead.
I have never been hotter right now as I finally get the perfect 5-0 week. This is the first one of the season but it will not be the last. That is now 4 straight winning weeks in a row and 5 overall. This brings my overall record to 22-11-2 which gives me a great 62.8 winning percentage. My best pick of the week was the previously mentioned Bengals over Ravens pick. I had no worst pick this week as I did not lose any this week but I consider many options for the final 5 and one of the options I was considering was Panthers (-3) @ Giants and they lost by 22 points so I am very glad I that pick did not make the cut. For this upcoming week, I think the home team winning week is not just a fluke but will continue this week as well. Also, I will keep with the favorites winning trend of the past 3 weeks to finish out the month of October with the favorites dominating the month.
Cincinnati Bengals (-10) @ New York Jets
How can I not go with the Bengals yet again this week with them being my best bet of the week I am very confident in their ability to cover the spread in most games as they are 4-2-1 this season and would be 5-2 if their damn kicker could make a freaking field goal in the Green Bay. The Jets are coming off a complete ass-kicking to the Patriots losing by 41 to rookie quarterback Mac Jones. They are a complete disaster after their number 2 overall pick Zach Wilson is hurt and will not play in this game which led them to trade for their former quarterback Joe Flacco. Whether the backup Mike White or Joe Flacco starts it won’t matter much as they will continue to struggle on offense. Also, if they can give up 54 to the Patriots, I don’t see Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase having any issues running up the score on them as well. Another fact going in the Bengals’ favor is that Favorites of 7 points or more are 14-8 ATS.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks
Now I hate betting on bad teams but it has worked out for me earlier this season when I picked the Jets against the Titans. I think the Jaguars have a few advantages this week as I think they have gained some confidence after getting their first win and they are coming off a bye which gives them more time to prep and more time to get healthy. The Seahawks are just not a good football team without Russell Wilson and they weren’t that good with him. Geno Smith struggled to do anything on Monday night as they scored just 10 points and turned the ball over in their final drives in each of the two previous games. The Seahawks have been awful at home this season as they are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS. I think the Jaguars can keep it close enough to cover if not win outright.
Dallas Cowboys (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings
Everybody knows Kirk Cousins’s bad record in primetime but that’s not the only reason why I am picking my Cowboys to crush the Vikings on Halloween night. 2 points is nothing for this Cowboys team to cover the spread. Even with some self-inflicted wounds that cause their opponents to come back in games, the Cowboys have still managed to be a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season. Dak is playing the best football of his career right now but he is dealing with a calf injury he suffered in the last play of the game against the Patriots so I can see why the oddsmakers have this game so close with Dak’s status up in the air. I believe 100% he will play in this game as he had the bye week to get right. The Cowboys will also have some reinforcements coming back such as Lael Collins off his suspension and Michael Gallup coming off a calf injury he suffered in week 1. Even if Dak is not at 100% he will be good enough to take care of a Vikings who barely won against the Lions and Panthers in their past two matchups.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (+3)
I will reiterate the fact that I hate betting on bad teams and the 0-7 Lions are a pretty bad team but a team that has fought hard in most of their games. They pulled out all their tricks in the playbook to try to get a win over the heavily favored Rams but it wasn’t enough. I think they can give another tough effort in this game considering they are going against Jalen Hurts who has been incredibly inaccurate as he had a 52.9 completion percentage last week against the Raiders. Though Detroit is winless they are 4-3 against the spread. I definitely believe the Lions can keep it close enough to cover if not outright win. I am also picking the Lions because I just love a home underdog and I think this is the best one of the week.
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
These two teams are coming off two completely different games as the Patriots are coming off a blowout victory and the Chargers coming off a blowout loss. But even after the oddsmakers still have the Chargers as a bigger favorite. Good teams coming off an embarrassing loss usually play well the next game to prove just how good they are and shake off the loss. The Chargers are coming off a bye as well so they have been stewing on that loss for two weeks going into Sunday and are ready to take it out on the Patriots. Justin Herbert will have a bounce-back game as the Patriots gave up over 400 yards to the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. The Chargers have a good record against the spread at 4-2. This pick also plays into the home teams starting to turn it around this season and favorites being dominant in the month of October so I think those trends continue this week.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
