Going into week 6 of the NFL season there are some key factors and changes to take note of. This is the first week of teams with byes which include Falcons, Jets, Saints, and 49ers. This means that there will be 2 fewer games to bet which means fewer opportunities to make money not that you should bet every game but that it will be more difficult to find favorable matchups and lines. One of the biggest changes was that the dominance of underdogs this season has come to end in week 5. I had said last week that I had a strong feeling that this trend would change and the favorites would have a good week which is why I picked more favorites than underdogs and it paid off. The favorites went 12-4 straight up and 9-7 against the spread in week 5. The trend that did not change was home teams continuing to struggle, having an overall losing week 7-8 and 6-10, the one game missing is the Falcons winning on a neutral field in London. Home teams are 33-45 against the spread and the favorites are 34-45 against the spread. The overs had good as there were big high scoring especially the game in Los Angeles between the Browns and the Chargers had the highest-scoring game of the year 47-42. Even with the good week for overs the unders still have the edge overall with 37 overs and 43 unders. The biggest upset of the week was Chicago Bears (+5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders as the Raiders got beatdown 20-9. The cover against the spread was Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs in which the Bills blowout the Chiefs by 18 points. The Bad Beat of the week came in Packers @ Bengals (+3) as both teams missed 5 field goals which would have the game then finally the Packers kick the game-winner which led to the Push.
I have been on fire these past two weeks with another winning week of 3-1-1 as well as correctly predicting the change in the trend of favorites finally having a good week. This brings my overall record to 14-9-2 which keeps me at a positive winning percentage. My best play was betting the Bills (+2) against the Chiefs, I was completely confident in this pick as I thought the Bills were by far the better team and even though they were on the road I thought the wrong team was the favorite. My worst play was my only loss of the week which was the Bears @ Raiders (-5.5). At the time that was making my picks, I did not know the news of Jon Gruden’s emails as that came out later in the week and that clearly had an effect on the field with the poor performance of the players. This is a great example of why knowing as much information as you can is the most important part of sports betting because had I known of the news, I would not necessarily bet the other way I would have just stayed away from the game completely. I hope to keep this fire burning and keep my eyes open for all possible information out there as I make my picks for this upcoming week.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
It seems like the Lions are the unluckiest team in the NFL as they have scratch and clawed their way back into only to lose in the final seconds of the game. But they also have had two games where they lost by double digits. I believe the Bengals have the weapons to put up the points they would need to cover this spread with the Joe Burrow and J. Chase both playing as well as they are. The Lions are coming off an emotional loss to the Vikings which was made clear how emotional it was by their crying at the podium in the post-game press conference. The Lions are severely struggling to score points as they have not scored more than 17 points in their last 4 games. I don’t think it will come down a field for the Bengals kicker to mess the game up I think the Bengals are good enough to have this game well in hand by the 4th quarter.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team (+7)
The Chiefs are coming off their ass-kicking by the Bills in which Patrick Mahomes has continued to struggle in this early part of the season throwing 2 picks and throwing for under 300 yards on 54 attempts. They will now have to go on the road to Washington to play the Football Team who are very capable of putting up some points against an awful Chiefs defense. Yes, Heinicke can turn the ball over here and there but I think the main way Washington will be able to gash this defense is through Antonio Gibson coming off a 2 touchdown and the run game which the Chiefs will not be able to stop. Kansas City will be without their leading rusher Clyde Edwards Helaire which means it will put that much more pressure on Mahomes to try to make plays by himself which can lead to more opportunity to turn the ball over. The Chiefs have been an overrated team all year as they are a public team but are just 1-5 against the spread and I think the oddsmakers are overvaluing them. I’m taking the points in this one as I think Washington will probably lose but keep it close enough to cover the spread and would not be surprised if they won outright.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens
I am taking the Chargers and the points in this one pretty confidently. The oddsmakers are treating this game as though these two teams are evenly matched considering the point spread is the typical home team gets the 3-point advantage and would be a pick’em on a neutral field. I don’t believe that these teams are even as the Ravens are coming off barely beating a bad Colts team in overtime after being down by 19 points. The Chargers just put up 47 on the Cleveland Browns and their offense led by Justin Herbert seems to be rolling. I don’t think the Ravens defense can stop Charger’s offense with the weapons at receiver and running back when they were not able to stop lesser weapons in the Colts game which might have been worse if not for their miscues in the red zone and the kicking game. The LA Chargers are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games and 4-1 this season.
Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns
This game is eerily similar to last week’s Bills (+2) @ Chiefs in which I already mentioned ended in a blowout. The reason it is similar is that just like last week I believe the wrong team is favored even though they are on the road. I again think the away team is by far better than the home team even though both teams are good teams. The Browns defense was exposed last week giving up 47 points to the Chargers. On the other hand, the Cardinals offense seems nearly unstoppable although they didn’t seem as dominant against the 49ers but they are still really good against the spread this season with 4-1 record. The Cardinals are the only undefeated team left and if the oddsmakers want to give them 2.5 points I will make the same bet as I did last week with the similar situation and gladly take them.
Dallas Cowboys (-4) @ New England Patriots
Now I don’t like taking my team when I am suggesting to you who to pick so to not be labeled a homer but when the spread is this good, I can’t help but to do so. I believe this situation is very favorable for the Cowboys to cover because going with the trend of home teams continuing to struggle as mentioned up top as well as how dominant the Cowboys have been this season. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 against the spread this season with multiple games covering by double digits. This is a case where the Cowboys are being completely undervalued by the oddsmakers which leads to just a 4-point spread against a bad Patriots team. The Patriots just barely beat rookie Davis Mills and the terrible Texans and considering Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks it should have been a much easier game. I would take the Cowboys even if the spread goes up to a touchdown and I think they will win as easily as their last few wins.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
