WEEK 5 RECAP
Week 5 Record: 3-2
Overall Record: 12-13
MY BEST PICK
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3)
Final Score: New York 40-17
This was my biggest gamble of the week. I went on a bit of a limb in taking the Jets who are not usually a good team to bet on. I was right in my thinking that they would carry over the juice they got from the Steelers’ win into this game. Zach Wilson in his second game back from injury didn’t have to do a whole lot which is definitely best for him because when he does too much that’s when he makes mistakes. The Jets leaned on their run game with their rookie running back Breece Hall rushing for 97 yards and a touchdown. He also caught 2 balls for 100 yards which was definitely his best game of his young career. The Dolphins were already playing with their backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater it was just unfortunate for the Dolphins but fortunate for me that he got knocked out and they had to go with their 3rd string QB Skylar Thompson who was just not prepared for the moment.
MY WORST PICK
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Final Score: Houston 13-6
I am not exactly sure what happened here. I want to say same old Jaguars but I really thought they were starting to move on from that as they were playing good football through the first 4 weeks. It was the opposite for the Texans going into this game as they have looked terrible. I should have realized the head-to-head record in the last 8 matchups between these two teams. As a bettor who goes with the trends so much, I completely overlooked the fact that the Texans had been so dominant in this rivalry. Rookie Dameon pierce took over this game running 26 times for 99 yards and scoring the only touchdown in this game. Trevor Lawerance did not have his best game throwing 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. This was a continuation of the previous week of him not being able to take care of the football. Overall, I just whiffed on this one.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 5: 11-5
- Overall: 47-32-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 5: 6-10
- Overall: 33-46-1
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 5: 8-8
- Overall: 41-38-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 5: 5-11
- Overall: 38-41-1
OVER/UNDER
- Week 5: 7-9
- Overall: 32-47-1
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
New York Giants (+9.5, ML +335) @ Green Bay Packers
Final Score: Green Bay 24-17
It was looking good for the Packers as they jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in the game. But Aaron Rodgers has done this the previous two weeks and then wasn’t able to do much afterward which allowed both the Bucs and Pats to have a chance in those games. This time the Packers were not able to fend off Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley as they made a tough comeback victory. The Giants had two big touchdown drives in the 4th quarter to take the lead. Aaron Rodgers had a chance to tie up the game in their final drive and ended it with 2 straight passes that were knocked down at the line. The Giants continue to impress as they improve to a surprising 4-1 record. Brian Daboll outcoached Matt LaFleur the coaching definitely made a difference in this game.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots (-3)
Final Score: New England 29-0
As a person who watches football regularly you would think if a team is starting their 3rd string quarterback that the team might be in big trouble but not for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Bailey Zappe in the first start of his career played a decent game didn’t make big mistakes and was able to take advantage of the Lions’ mess of a defense. But it was Rhomondre Stevenson that shined in the game rushing for 161 yards. This was much needed for the Patriots to lean on their run game. The oddsmakers obviously weren’t phased by who was starting at quarterback for the Patriots because they were 3-point favorites. You expect the Lions’ defense to be bad but the Lions going back to last season with Jared Goff have shown they are very capable of putting up points. The fact they got shut out is the most surprising part as Goff was terrible and the Lions couldn’t get anything going on offense.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders (ML –105)
Final Score: Tennessee 21-17
For much of this game, it was a back-and-forth battle between the Titans and the Commanders. Both teams were leaning on their playmakers as the Titans gave Henry 28 carries for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns and Carson Wentz for the Commanders threw 38 times completing 25 for 2 touchdowns and 1 crucial pick. It all came down to the Commanders’ last drive of the game as they had a long 87-yard 4-minute and 40-second drive with a chance to win the game with 13 seconds left on the clock. Then Wentz did what he is best known for doing and that is making a terrible throw at a crucial moment. If you had the Washington Commanders on the MoneyLine it was looking good until that interception to end the game.
WEEK 6 PICKS
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts
I guess I will roll the dice one more time on the Jaguars I have been picking them the last couple of weeks and it has not turned out well for me but I will look past the bad result from last week and pick them once again. Trevor Lawrence can play well when he is not turning the ball over so much. In the last matchup, the Jags shut out the Colts. Even though the Colts beat the Broncos on that awful Thursday night game both offenses were disasters. Matt Ryan had two picks and 15 incompletions in the game. I think the Jags’ defense is good enough to give the Colts’ problems as they did in the 1st matchup. The Jags are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against the Colts and Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1) @ New Orleans Saints
My picks this week are going to be majority away teams going as I am going along with the trend that away teams have the edge vs hoe teams ATS. Joe Burrow put his team in a position to win against the Ravens just left too much time on the clock to let the best kicker in history to kick the winning field goal. Despite the loss the Bengals have been playing a lot better in recent weeks after their rough 0-2 start to the season. The Saints will probably still be without Jameis Winston but it hasn’t really mattered who has been in there. Taysom Hill has more touchdowns then both Dalton and Winston. Though the Bengals still have their offensive line issues they are facing a defense that gave up 32 pints to Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense as he threw 3 touchdowns last Sunday. I think Joe Burrow will put up a lot of points on this Saints team that has allowed 20 points or more in every game this season. The Bengals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games and the Saints are just 2-6 straight up in their last 8 games.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (+5.5)
The Ravens always seem to find themselves in close games even going back to last year with a point spread of 5.5 that would give the edge to the Giants in this case. Lamar Jackson has not played all that well the last 2 games and has struggled with his accuracy. I think that will continue as he goes up against a surprising 8th-ranked Giants passing defense. On the other side, the Ravens are 32nd in passing yards. Saquon Barkley has led this Giants’ offense to the number 2 rushing offense in the league. I think it will once again come down to a Justin Tucker field goal to win the game which won’t be enough to cover the spread for the Ravens. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in the first 5 games of the season while the Ravens are just 2-21 ATS.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3)
Before the beatdown of the mess that is the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bills had some struggles with the 2 good teams they played. They had close battles with the Dolphins and the Ravens who are both legit teams. This week they will be facing one of the best teams in the league who they lost to in the playoffs last year. The Bills have trouble winning close games and I think this will be just that. The Chiefs are coming off a narrow one-point victory against the Raiders. They started off slow and had to make a big comeback as Patrick Mahomes threw for 4 touchdowns all of them going to Travis Kelce. I think this will be a tough close game just like the last matchup with these two high-powered offenses going at it. In this very close matchup, I will go with the home team and I’ll take the points.
Dallas Cowboys (+6) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Now I have been reluctant to bet on my Dallas Cowboys with Cooper Rush starting even though he has won every game he has started. I still have hesitancy about what the offense will look like every week but the scheme has been consistent. The Cowboys have implemented a very balanced offense sticking with the run when they need to and it has worked. I think if the Cowboys stick with the run game with Zeke and Pollard leading the way as they are undefeated when they run 30 times or more. The Eagles are coming off a narrow victory against the Cardinals where they continue to struggle to score points in their offense, especially against the Cowboys’ defense which has been playing incredibly. They are number 2 in sacks with Micah Parsons carrying the team on his back. The Cowboys will do what they have doing and that is beat up on their divisional opponents. Both Cooper Rush and the Cowboys’ streak against the NFC East will continue. Even if the Eagles find a way to win no way it will be more than 6 points not against this defense. Going back to last year the Cowboys have been great ATS as they are always undervalued and they are 4-1 this year.
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