WEEK 4 RECAP
Week 4 Record: 3-2
Overall Record: 9-11
MY BEST PICK
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Final Score: Arizona 26-16
I thought this one was pretty simple to bet on because just looking at it you just take the better team with the better quarterback and on top of that, you are getting points even though it’s on the road. As predicted Baker Mayfield continued to struggle as he turned the ball over 3 times. The Panthers couldn’t get Christian McCaffery going on the ground only through the passing game. After a poor start to the game as the Cardinals are prone to having this season, they picked it up in the 4th quarter by scoring 16 points.
MY WORST PICK
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (-10)
Final Score: Green Bay 27-24
At least I picked the right team to win in this one but that is not really saying much considering the spread. Not to mention that the Patriots’ backup quarterback Brian Hoyer got knocked out of the game early and they were down to their 3rd stringer in Bailey Zappe. This should have been an easy win for the Packers considering the circumstances. Though Rodgers and his receivers have had their troubles this season it was the Packers’ defense that was the culprit this time. They allowed the Pats to run their combo of Harris and Stevenson for 167 yards and a touchdown. This allowed Zappe to just not make any big mistakes to give away the game for the Pats. Overall it should not have taken until overtime to beat this Patriots team.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 4: 10-6
- Overall: 36-27-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 4: 8-8
- Overall: 27-36-1
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 4: 8-8
- Overall: 33-30-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 4: 8-8
- Overall: 33-30-1
OVER/UNDER
- Week 4: 8-8
- Overall: 25-38-1
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Final Score: Tennessee 24-17
After going through a rough first 2 games of the season, the Titans have bounced back and have won back-to-back games. Even after the bad start to the season, I still thought this was a good team and that we just haven’t seen the team from last year yet. In the last 2 games, they have made an effort to get Derrick Henry going and, in this game, he finally had a 100-yard rushing game. The Colts showed that they are the team I thought they were which is not very good. They started off with 2 turnovers getting down 24-3. They did a good job shutting the Titans in the 2nd half but ended the game by fumbling and missing a field goal. I was surprised that the Colts were favored by this much. I knew that just because they had a big win over the Chiefs that the Colts would be overvalued for this game, especially in a divisional matchup, and I knew they would fall back into what they are.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Washington Commanders
Final Score: Dallas 25-10
As a Cowboys fan, I obviously could not be happier with this result. The Cowboys continue their great record against the spread going back to last year. The Cowboys have now won 3 straight games with their backup quarterback Cooper Rush filling in for injured Dak Prescott. Dallas stuck to their balanced offensive scheme with Rush even though the run game was being stopped they stuck with it. Cooper Rush made plays when he needed to but the Cowboys continue to be led by their defense. The pass rush got after Wentz with constant pressure that made him make mistakes and were able to pick him off twice. A combination of great defense by the Cowboys and self-inflicted wounds by the Commanders led to just 10 points. Every time the Commanders would get a drive going, they were pushed back by penalties that took them out of scoring range.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (+3)
Final Score: Buffalo 23-20
This was not a terrible beat as the end result was a push. But in the 1st half, this game looked like a for sure cash-it-in win. The Ravens had 20-3 lead with 2 minutes left in the 1st half. The Ravens’ defense let the Bills go down the field and score a touchdown right before halftime. Then the Bills gradually continued their comeback while Lamar Jackson started to make mistakes and it was going downhill for the Ravens and those who bet on them. If u put your money on the Ravens plus the points, then you absolutely agreed with the decision to on 4th down to go up by 7 instead of 3 to cover the spread. Unfortunately, after a long drive, Lamar threw an interception in the end zone and the Bills drove down and scored the winning field goal to complete the push.
WEEK 5 PICKS
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns (+3)
Still one of the most injured teams in the league, the Chargers go on the road to Cleveland to take on a Browns team that is hanging in there with their backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The Chargers have allowed both the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars to run all over them in their last 2 games. Pierce for the Texans ran for 131 and the Jags as a team ran for 151 yards. The Browns’ main key to their offense is their run game with Chubb leading the way and Hunt complementing. They have ran as a team for over 170 yards 3 times this year. The Browns have a good defense despite one bad game against the Jets and will be able to get after Herbert. I believe they can keep it close and I will definitely take the 3 points at home as a dog.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Turnovers were the main issue against the Eagles this past Sunday for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They took a 14-point lead early in the game which is exactly what I thought they needed to do to win the game but they gradually let it slip away due to the mistakes. Despite the turnovers, they could hang with an undefeated team like the Eagles. The Jags know how to score points as they scored 20 points or more in every game this season. The Texans just gave up 34 points to the Chargers because their defense is not very good. I believe this game will be similar to the AFC south divisional game the Jags last played against the Colts when they shut them out.
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) @ New Orleans Saints
It is not clear who will start on Sunday for the New Orleans Saints at quarterback. Whether it is Dalton or Winston, I do not think it will matter very much they both have their flaws. They both have shown problems scoring points. They have failed to score 20 points twice this season. I don’t think the Saints are a very good team and their 1-3 record reflects that. Also, the Seahawks are a much better team than I and most of us thought they would be. A big reason for that is the surprising play by Geno Smith especially in this last, He had a good game against the Lions putting up 48 points along with Rashad Penny finally looked like he should have when he was drafted. I think 5.5 points is a lot of points to give a Seahawks team that seems to be better than the Saints right now and definitely better coached because I don’t think much of Dennis Allen.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+3)
With Tua out, the Dolphins will be led by backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Jets are coming off a nice win against the Pittsburgh Steelers with quarterback Zach Wilson also coming back off an injury that had him out for the first 3 games of the season I think this will be a close divisional matchup and I will give the edge to the home team that is getting 3 points I am not sure how Teddy Bridgewater will play but I think the Jets have a little bit of juice with Zach Wilson.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Baker Mayfield just seems like a mess on the field and can’t get this offense to what it needs to be to win games. Their defense could not bail them out against the Cardinals and I don’t think it will be able to against the 49ers especially if they continue to not get Christian McCaffery going on the ground. The 49ers just took down the Super Bowl with Jimmy G but that is nothing new. Kyle Shanahan has owned Sean McVay and the Rams. The Panthers are not a good football team and have an even worse coach in Matt Rhule that will be outmatched against Shanahan. I am not sure how the Panthers plan on scoring points against this defense which is one of the best in the league. The 49ers are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games.
Or listen on Spotify:
