When you are gambling and you are on a roll you feel like you can’t lose. You might start getting overconfident and start making dumb decisions like betting too many games which is one of the most common mistakes made by recreational bettors. Your success may not last forever as we saw in the NFL this week when 4 undefeated teams lost. The Panthers, Rams, Broncos, Raiders all experienced their hot hands go cold leaving just one undefeated left the Arizona Cardinals and we’ll see how long that lasts. Underdogs against the spread continue to be on a roll as they have yet to see a losing week and are 37-27 which is a 57.8% winning percentage. Unders as well stay on a roll as they are now 38-26 on the season. The Bad Beat of week 4 came in the Washington @ Atlanta game with the Falcons (+2) with the lead up 2 late in the game when Heinicke throw a 30-yard pass with 33 seconds left in the game and win by 4. All Washington needed was a field goal on that drive to win the game which would have led to Atlanta covering the spread if that had happened.
After a couple of rough weeks, I have finally gotten back on track this week with my picks. I went 4-1 this past week which brings my overall record to 11-8-1. I felt I had to tweak my strategy take a little more risk and follow the trends of underdogs being so dominant this season as 3 of my 5 picks were underdogs. My best play which is also the one I took the most risk on considering a lot of the public money was on the other side was picking the Jets (+7.5). I hate betting on bad football teams and most thought this would be a blowout by the Titans but I called it last week that Zach Wilson would finally settle in this week after playing very tough defense the first 3 weeks than playing a mediocre Titans defense would make a world of difference and it did as the Jets beat the Titans outright in overtime. I didn’t think they would win but thought it would be a much closer game than most thought it would be. My worst play which was my only loss of the week was picking the Lions (+3) I didn’t think Lions would play as bad as losing by 10. The Bears had some really crappy quarterback play but relied heavily on their run game which is what won them the game as the Lions couldn’t stop them. Even though the trend has the underdogs with the edge over favorites so far this season it won’t be like that every week and I think that trend will change this week which is why I will take more favorites than underdogs with my picks this week.
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills have been dominating in recent weeks coming off a 40-0 victory against the Texans. Josh Allen is back in the MVP conversation as he was last year with the type of performances, he is putting leading this explosive offense that scoring a hell of a lot of points. The Chiefs have a bad defense and have had a bad defense since last year which is covered up the play Mahomes. Chiefs allowed 30 points to a bad Eagles offense with a not-so-good Jalen Hurts at quarterback. After they gave up that I have no problem picking Bills to win outright let alone get 2.5 points even on the road at Arrowhead. Wipe away the fluke that was week 1 and the Bills are the better team right now and are playing like it while the Chiefs have had their struggles this season which I think will continue on Sunday. On top of all that the Chiefs have a bad record ATS with a 2-12-1 record in their last 15 games and conversely, the Bills have a good record ATS with a 12-3 record in their last 15 games. The clear pick to me is the Buffalo Bills.
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Even facing a crowd that 80% Raiders fans at home in their own stadium and a weather delay the Chargers were able to overcome all of that and dominate the first half 21-0 and close it out 28-14. The Chargers look like a different team this year and Justin Herbert looks incredible which is why I love them to beat the Browns and cover the spread. The Browns are winning despite the awful play by Baker Mayfield as he has just 2 touchdowns all seasons with 2 interceptions. They just squeaked out a win against the 1-3 Vikings only due to the talent of the team not Baker as he seems to be still not on the same page with Odell as Jarvis Landry is still out due to injury. The Browns will have to travel cross country to Los Angeles which is always a factor especially after just playing a road game in Minnesota. Like their actual record, the Chargers’ record against the spread is 3-1.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
I feel that the Raiders will bounce back after their loss on Monday night against a very good Chargers team. After a terrible first half they were able to come back to make it a one-score game but just wasn’t enough to handle Justin Herbert and the way he is playing. Chicago surprised me in week 4 against the Lions with a good rushing attack but it was just the Lions. If put in a position where the Bears offense has to rely on Justin Fields to win them the game he will not come through because he is simply not ready for that. I think with Josh Jacobs in his second game back coming off an injury he will be able to be more effective than he was against the Chargers. My city of Las Vegas has the best home-field advantage in sports and we the Raiders just not losing at home and will be able to cover the spread versus a bad Bears team. There Bears also have not been very good against the spread lately just 2-4 in their last 6 games.
Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Just when you thought the Jaguars might have had something going on Thursday night when Trevor Lawrence finally looked to settle in leading the Bengals but then couldn’t finish the game and end up losing. Then after that Urban Meyer decides to embarrass himself and create a massive distraction for his team which takes the focus off of beating the Titans who are coming off a terrible upset against the winless Jets. Despite the loss, I think the Titans are very capable of winning on the road and covering the spread. Even in the loss against the Jets, Derrick Henry was still able to go off and have a really good which he will continue to do so this week. I think the Jaguars have too much of a negative spotlight on them plus they are just not a very good football team right now. Along with all that, they lost one of their key weapons in D.J. Chark in the Thursday night game for the season. We all know that they haven’t won a game since week 1 of last year but also haven’t been good against the spread either with just a 2-6 record in their last 8 games.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
Since their bad week 1 one loss the Packers have been on a roll to a 3-1 record but as we have seen and have mentioned above those do not last. Joe Burrow looked really good in the comeback against the Jaguars albeit it was the Jags. I love a home dog and there are a lot this week but out of all of them, this is the best team that is a home dog. I think the Bengals have enough offense with weapons like Mixon, Chase, and the surprise of Thursday night Uzomah to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and it will end up being a close game. The Bengals don’t have to win but I think they are very capable of covering a 3-point spread at home. This may be my biggest risk of the week but as you saw last week with my Jets pick, I think it will pay off in the end.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
