WEEK 1 RECAP
Week 1 Record: 2-3
MY BEST PICK
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Final Score: Pittsburgh 23-20
I was right all the way around on this one. I knew the Bengals were overvalued and that this was way too many points for a divisional matchup such as this. The Bengals never led once in the game as Joe Burrow threw 4 INT and fumbled twice and lost one of them. The Steelers’ defense got after Burrow. sacking him 7 times. I said last week that I did not believe this offensive line of the Bengals would be fixed just like that especially early on in the season. Trubisky did enough to not give the game away as they let the Bengals shoot themselves in the foot especially in the end by missing a game-winning field goal in overtime.
MY WORST PICK
Denver Broncos (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
Final Score: Seattle 17-16
I put all my eggs in the Russell Wilson basket not only for this game but for the season as well because he was my pick for MVP and the Broncos were my Super Bowl pick. Wilson going back to Seattle seemed like the perfect time to shine and stick it to Pete Carroll and all those fans booing him before the game. He did not come through as the Broncos let him cook which wasn’t turn out to be the best thing, He threw 42 times but only scored 1 TD and had a total of 16 points. Their run game seemed to be working and they probably should have stuck with that a little more. I did not foresee Geno Smith playing as well as he did going 23/28 and 2 TDs, especially against what I thought was a pretty talented Broncos defense. The Seahawks defense showed up being familiar with Russ and able to know how to stop in the Red Zone. Overall, I just totally misjudged this one but hey it’s just week 1.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 1: 8-8
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 1: 6-9-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 1: 10-6
OVER/UNDER
- Week 1: 5-11
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
New York Giants (+7.5, ML +290) @ Tennessee Titans
Final Score: New York 21-20
This was one of the biggest surprises of the weekend. The Giants steal one against the Titans by containing Derrick Henry to just 82 yards and inversely the Titans’ defense was not able to slow down Saquon Barkley who ran for 164 yards and 1 TD. The Titans seemed to have a handle on this game because they were up to 13-0 at halftime. Then Barkley had a huge run to put them in scoring range and proceeded to score a touchdown. After that, the Titans were never able to put the Giants away and let them hang around. The Giants came all the way back and chose to go for 2 on the final touchdown drive to take the lead. Then on the final drive of the game, the Titans missed the game-winning field goal and the Giants got lucky coming away with the win.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
Final Score: Kansas City 44-21
I was completely wrong on this one. I thought the Cardinals were one of the better teams in the NFC, they still might be, and they would not get blown out at home. The Chiefs did not experience the early season struggles that afflicted them last year and Patrick Mahomes seemed just fine without Tyreek Hill getting off to an early 14- point lead and never letting up from there. Mahomes had an incredible day throwing for 5 TDs and the Cardinals had no answers on defense. I wouldn’t overreact to this showing from the Cardinals after just one game but the Chiefs seem right back on track to once again be a contender to get to the Super Bowl.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Final Score: Los Angeles 24-19
With the Chargers up 17-3 at the half, you did not feel you had much hope if you bet on the Raiders plus the points. That hope started to be restored as the Raiders crept their way back in the game in the 3rd quarter. The Raiders scored a TD with 9:32 left in the game to make it 24-19 when the Raiders, to all the bettors’ dismay, decided to go for 2 and failed to convert. This those of you who put their money on the Raiders +4.5 miss by just half a point, the definition of a bad beat.
WEEK 2 PICKS
Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions
The Lions still look like the same team with the same problems from last year. They are going a tough competitive bunch that can put up points but do not know how to win games just yet. Their defense is still bad allowing the Eagles to score 38 points on them. Hutchinson had no impact in his first game as a pro with just 1 tackle on the stat sheet. Washington on the other hand was down in the 4th quarter and fought back to win the game. The Lions will have trouble stopping Carson Wentz as he threw 4 TDs last week and spread the ball around. Rookie Jahan Dotson caught 2 TDs which gives Washington another threat in their receiving corps to go along with Terry McClaurin. Washington is 7-2-1 in last 10 games and Detroit is 3-16-1 SU in their last 20 games. The Lions will keep it close as usual but ultimately fail to pull out the win which is their nature and if you are telling me Washington is getting points, I will be all over that.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
The Colts weren’t impressive to me in the tie against the Texans. Before the season I felt that Matt Ryan was old and washed and it was going to be yet the next failed experiment at quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts. They went down 20-3 going into the 3rd quarter. They made a comeback in the 4th quarter but didn’t do anything in overtime. Johnathan Taylor was able to have a hell of a day but still only scored 20 points. The Jaguars had a back-and-forth battle with Washington. I think if they did not pass so much as Lawrence had 42 attempts they could have come out with the win. Robinson had a 6yd avg. And Etienne had a 11.8 avg. That will be the key to winning this game. I think they will keep it close with their division rival and 4 points will be enough to cover the spread. Matt Ryan threw 50 times and managed just 1 TD for all his effort. As long as the Jags can somewhat contain Taylor as they did against the Commanders only allowing 85 yds rushing, they will be able to keep within range or get the win outright. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in last 5 games and 1-4 in their last 5 divisional games
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)
The Steelers are coming off an impressive upset win against the Bengals and will be looking to continue riding that high this week against the Patriots. The defense was hellacious on Sunday causing 6 turnovers forcing Burrow into 4 picks and sacking 7 times. Even though they will be without TJ Watt I still believe they have enough on defense to be fierce, especially against Mac Jones who will be questionable for the game with backup Bryan Hoyer not being a great option. Even with Jones the Pats’ offense was stagnant only throwing for 213 yds 1TD and having just 78 yds rushing they will have a lot of difficulty against this Steelers’ defense. Trubisky will do enough in this game to win as I am very surprised to see the Steelers are getting 1.5 points at home against a talentless struggling Pats tame. New England is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games while Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and 6-0-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ San Francisco 49ers
Now I am not going to overreact to the Seahawks’ big win against the Broncos on Monday night. There was a lot of emotion in the stadium and I don’t expect Geno Smith to play like that every week or their defense either. But even before the season, I thought Trey Lance wasn’t going to pan out and the 49ers would not be a good team overall because of the decision to go with Lance over Jimmy G. As far as week 1 goes they are proving me right as they lost to a Bears team, I still think is one of the worst teams in the league despite getting the win. The 49ers lost to a team with a quarterback who completed just 8 passes. Lance was 13/28 164 yds and 1 int and was the leading rusher. The 49ers will be without their starting running back Elijah Mitchell. This puts even more pressure on Trey Lance to make plays. The Seahawks were able to hold Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense to just 1 touchdown and just 16 points. To say that the 49ers will beat the Seahawks by more than 10 points is hard to believe when they barely scored 10 points against the Bears. Seattle is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games and 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against the 49ers.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills (-10)
The Bills came out opening night and proved why everyone picked them to win the Super Bowl as they took it to the defending Super Bowl Champs beating them by 21 points and shutting the out in the second half limiting them to 10 points The Titans got upset by the Giants mainly because they did not get Henry going as he had 82 yds on 21 carries with a 3.9 avg. I feel the Bills have that defense that will be able to contain Henry as well because they did just that to the Rams keeping them to just 52 team rushing yards. The Bills feel like they are on a mission this year after what transpired last season. As Super Bowl favorites they will have to continue these impressive performances. The Titans will have a tough time stopping Diggs and Davis. The Bills can force Tannehill into making mistakes as they did to Stafford getting 3 picks off him. All last year when the Bills won, they would blow their opponents out. I believe the Bills win the game therefore it will be a blowout and they will cover the large 10-point spread. The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games and the Titans are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
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