Often week 1 is a tough week to gamble on due to all the speculation and preconceived notions all building up to the first game of the season. You never know how a new coach or a new quarterback will do coming out the game whether they will need some time for cohesion or the start off balling out. Bettors can look back to the previous season and the offseason to make their determinations on who will win or lose or just go off their gut that things will be different this season. No matter your strategy going into week 1, going into week 2 the main thing to keep in mind is not to overreact to what happened. The Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Indianapolis Colts who were a playoff team last season in week 1 and then did not win a game the rest of the season. If you have a certain mindset on a team and they did not look the way you expected I wouldn’t automatically think the opposite of what I thought going into week 1. Oddsmakers love to take advantage of those who overreact to week 1 with how to set the line with teams that surprised and disappointed. You can make adjustments to your mindset and strategy and have hesitations in the way you bet those teams going forward but I would wait a few weeks into the season to completely change the way you would bet those teams you had a strong feeling about just because they may not have met expectations in week 1.
In week 1, we saw a big week for underdogs as they went 9-7 outright and 11-5 against the spread. Be aware that oddsmakers always make adjustments to these types of trends as there are always ebbs and flows to whether favorites or underdogs dominate the week. There was also a good amount of points scored this week as the over went 10-6. The biggest total to hit the over was the Cleveland and Kansas City totaling 62 points. A couple of bad beats of the week were two second-half comebacks that led both teams to almost cover the spread with the Jets (+4.5) lost by just 5, missed the cover by a point, and the Lions (+7) with a monumental comeback just ran out of time to tie the game up in regulation to take it into overtime but lost by 8 points.
I did very well with my own picks as I went 4-1 in my 5 picks. The reality is you will fail a lot in sports gambling. The very best bettors win around 58% of the time and need to be winning at least 52.4 % to be profitable so to start off 4-1 the first week is a really good start to the season but inevitably will not be the case every week. My worst play was taking the Falcons (-3). I massively overestimated how good the Falcons offense would be with the type of weapons they have and then they only score 6 points against a bad Eagles team was a huge whiff. I will not overreact to how the Eagles played I still think they are not a very good football team and think they just played one of the worst teams in the league. I think my best play was taking the Raiders (+4.5) at home against the Ravens considering it would have been a 10.5 point spread if the game was in Baltimore. This is the reason why I love to bet home underdogs because you get the 3-point home field advantage plus more points on top of that. The public was heavy on the Ravens but I knew the circumstance of playing in Vegas on Monday Night Football in the first game with fans in the new stadium there was no way they were going to lose even though the Ravens are the better team.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ Los Angeles Chargers
I am taking the Cowboys not because I am a homer but I do think they are a better team than the Chargers. If not for a bad missed call they would have beaten the defending Super Bowl champs on the road in the opener. That doesn’t mean the Chargers are not a good team as they just got by a tough Washington defense. I think the Cowboys offense will outscore LA as Dak seems to be playing his best football coming off an injury. Also, the Cowboys have a huge fan base in Los Angeles as they have training camp every year in Oxnard, California. Though it is a road game it will feel like a home game for the Cowboys as they will probably have more fans in the stadium than the Chargers will.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Chicago Bears
The Bengals looked good in their home opener overtime win upsetting the Vikings. This was another example of betting the home dog paying off. Oddsmakers seem to think these teams are evenly matched with the point spread the way it is it would be a pick’em game on a neutral field. I think Joe Burrow is completely back after he was injured for most of the 2020 season and looks right back on track. The Bears got beat down against the Rams as Andy Dalton didn’t look good at all against that tough Rams defense. The Bengals may not have the same type of defense as the Rams but I think they can do enough to let Burrow take it into his hands and win the game for them.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) @ Indianapolis Colts
The Rams completely dominated the Bears in week 1 and look to continue that dominance this week against the Colts who got whooped against the Seahawks. The injured Carson Wentz fought his way back to playing in week 1 but was no match for Russel Wilson. He played decent but not nearly good enough to beat good teams in this league and that’s what he’s got this week with the Rams. The Ram’s defense is legit and will torment Wentz in this game. I do love my home underdogs but in this case, I just go with Colts as think it be a very similar outcome to last week’s Colts and Seahawks game.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
I am taking the Steelers straight up here. The line in is Steelers (-5.5) and I am not confident enough in their offense to think that they will cover the spread. Their defense played great in the upset win against the Bills but their offense is very mediocre and I can’t determine how they will fare against the Raiders front line which just got a ton of pressure on Lamar Jackson. The Raiders got a big boost from the environment they played in and after a very emotional win I think took a toll on them. Usually, teams coming off big emotional upset wins in overtime use up a lot of energy and won’t have the same juice the next week. They played on Monday night and then have to travel across the country to Pittsburgh on a short week which definitely impact their recovery and practice time.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
One of the most surprising things to come out of week 1 was how dominant the Cardinals played in their upset win against the Titans. Chandler Jones took the game over with 5 sacks and see no reason why his dominance won’t continue this week against the Vikings. I will continue to have no faith in Kirk Cousins’s ability to beat good teams. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games. I will very confidently take the Cardinals here and lay the 4.5 points as I think the Cardinals will win by much more than that.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
