WEEK 12 RECAP
Week 12 Record: 1-4
Overall Record: 29-29-2
MY BEST PICK
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) @ New Orleans Saints
I knew that the Saints would again struggle without their best player Alvin Kamara. The Saints are now 0-4 since Jameis Winston got put on injured reserve. I was able to pick this game at 5.5 point spread before it went up to 7 points.
MY WORST PICK
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos
The Broncos won 28-13 at home. I did not expect a double-digit victory in an evenly matched divisional game. I definitely did not expect Justin Herbert to play as badly as he did. The Denver defense that has been playing well all season really stepped up in this one and let the Broncos running game take over on offense. Teddy Bridgewater even went out of the game for a bit which should have been the window for the Chargers to take advantage but they never could.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 12: 8-7
- Overall: 106-72-1
- Against The Spread
- Week 12: 7-7-1
- Overall: 79-98-2
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 12: 9-6
- Overall: 89-89-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 12: 9-5-1
- Overall: 76-101-2
OVER/UNDER
- Week 12: 7-8-1
- Overall: 79-98-2
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Las Vegas Raiders (+7) (ML +260) @ Dallas Cowboys
Horrible officiating, 28 combined accepted penalties, and a terrible blown pass interference call in overtime that kept the Raiders’ drive alive led to a 3-point upset on the road. Dallas struggle without their main offensive weapons including Amari Cooper (Covid), CeeDee Lamb (concussion), and Ezekiel Elliot dealing with a knee injury all game but was still able to battle back to take the game to overtime. The Raiders did not trail the entire game as their offense seemed to be clicking with Carr throwing for 373 yards and having two receivers go for over 100 yards. I stayed away from betting this game considering both teams were on a downslide in recent weeks but with the injuries to Dallas it was the Raiders to not just cover but get the win outright.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Buffalo Bills (-7) @ New Orleans Saints
The Bills got a dominant win over the Saints on the road on Thanksgiving night. Even with Josh Allen throwing 2 picks to try to keep the Saints in the game they never were. Trevor Siemian has looked really bad since becoming the starter which has now led to quarterback change in New Orleans to Taysom Hill. The Bills win by 25 points 31-6 and cover the spread by 18 points.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
If you had the Browns and the points in this one it was definitely hard to watch. The Browns were covering at halftime down just 6-3. They could have been tied if not for Chase McLaughlin missing a field goal. Lamar was making some ridiculous throws to Mark Andrews including one for a touchdown that extended their lead to 13-3. The Browns were able to cut the lead to 13-10 which had it stayed that way would have covered but the Ravens get a field goal with 70 seconds left in the game and the Browns failed to do anything with the ball in their last possession of the game.
WEEK 13 PICKS
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR
According to the oddsmakers, as you look at the spreads there are a lot of one-sided matchups this week. Six teams are favorited by a touchdown or more and four teams are favorited by more than nine points. There is only one underdog that is getting less than third points.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) @ Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are currently on a 3-game skid as they have lost by 12 points or more in each of the last 3 games. Matt Stafford has looked like the mediocre quarterback I always thought he was. The Rams offense has failed to score more than 16 points in 2 of the last 3 games and Stafford has thrown 5 picks during this stretch. The Jaguars do not look good either but with a 13-point spread and the Rams are currently playing I will definitely take all those points. The Rams will likely win but I do not think I will be that bad or by that many points. The Rams have been terrible in their last 5 games ATS as they 0-5 in that stretch. They are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against AFC.
Denver Broncos (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs
I still don’t think the Chiefs’ offense is looking good as they have only scored more than 20 points just once since week 6. I still believe they overrated and overvalued despite a couple of wins they got before their bye. The Broncos are coming off a big win against another divisional opponent and I don’t see why they can’t do that this week. I think 10 points is way too big of a spread for two divisional rivals with just a one-game difference in their records. The Broncos have been pretty good ATS this season with a winning record of 6-5 same as their actual record. Kansas City has been awful ATS in their last 20 games as they a poor 5-14-1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) @ Atlanta Falcons
I am laying the big 11 points in this one despite the Bucs’ trouble against the spread. In the first matchup between these two teams earlier this year the Bucs won by 23 points as a 13.5-point favorite. The Falcons have covered just twice in their last 7 NFC South Battles and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 home games. After losing to the Saints and Washington the Bucs seem to be back on track with victories over the Giants and Colts especially now that they have Gronk back which has improved the play of Tom Brady.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-3)
The Dolphins are on a 4-game winning streak and in that time, they are allowing just 11.5 points per game. Tua has been very efficient in this stretch as he has completed 80% of his passes in the last 2 games. They have scored 22 or more points in their last 3 games. Even in the Giants’ win over the Eagles the offense still struggled to score points as they only won 13-7. I don’t think laying the 3 points is asking too much from the Dolphins against a bad Giants team.
Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
After the Raiders’ upset win on Thanksgiving, the Raiders will have 4 more days of rest than Washington who will have a shorten week after playing on Monday Night Football. I think the Raiders will build off the momentum of their win against the Cowboys and put their bad 3 game skid behind them. The favorites did pretty well last week better than they have for most of the season and since this week seems to be a week of big favorites, I feel comfortable taking the Raiders in this one. Washington is 0-3 against the AFC West averaging 13 points per game and they are 0-3 on the road against teams with winning records.
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook