It has now gotten to Thanksgiving week where things in the NFL really start to heat up as the temperature starts to go down into football weather. It is the point in the season where the teams who want it most show you who they are and which teams are ready to pack it in. This past week was much different from the previous as we saw much more competitive close games than the blowout fest that was the week prior. 9 of the 15 matchups were 10-point games or less. Favorites made a little bit of a comeback this week going 10-5 straight up and 8-7 against the spread which brings the overall record to 98-65-1 straight up and 72-91-1 ATS. Same old story for Home teams as they continue to fail every week going 6-9 straight up and 4-11 against the spread bringing the overall to 80-83-1 straight up and 67-96-1 against the spread. There were also some major upsets including the Colts’ massacre of the Buffalo Bills, and Cam’s homecoming ruined in Carolina by the returning Ron Rivera. The biggest upset was Texans (+10) (ML +380) @ Titans which had a final score of 22-13. The biggest cover against the spread was the Colts (+7) @ Bills in which the Colts won by 26 points and had a 33-point cover. The Bad beat of the week was Pittsburgh @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) in which the Chargers had a 14-point lead going into the 4th quarter and a 7-point lead with 4:45 left in the game. This is when Justin Herbert throws a pick and lets the Steelers get a quick score. That led to the Steelers being back in the game and making the game much closer than it should have. The Steelers still lose by 4 but cover the spread by just 2.5 points. A few things to look out for going into week 12 are that following a week with a lot of close games the lines have adjusted as only 1 of the 15 betting lines has more than a 7-point spread. Also, week 12 is heavy on divisional matchups with 5 as all of these games have a 5-point spread of fewer.
Antarctica is the only way to describe how my betting picks have been going the past few weeks as I am ice cold with yet another losing week going just 2-3. This brings my overall record to 28-25-2 bringing down my winning percentage to just 52.7%. My worst pick was going with the Saints (+1.5) @ Eagles. The Saints never looked like they were in this game. At one point they were down 26 points and were suffering too many mistakes by quarterback Trevor Siemian and their defense was not able to stop Jalen Hurts from running the ball. My best pick was the previously mentioned Colts (+7) @ Bills as I correctly assumed this spread was just too big not to take the Colts. But I also got lucky with my other win as I took the Bears (+ 6) even before the news of Lamar Jackson being out was known as I correctly predicted that the Ravens would win but they would not cover. As always, I will try my best to get back on track this week as I will follow the trends and go heavy road teams seeing how bad home teams faired last week and all season for that matter.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) @ New Orleans Saints
This is the third straight week that the Saints are underdogs and that’s because they have lost 3 straight games as they are now 0-3 without Jameis Winston starting the game. It is likely that the Saints will once again be without their best player Alvin Kamara who has been the main focus of the offense even when Winston was in there. The Bills are coming off an ass-kicking by the Colts who seem to be on the upswing in recent weeks. They still have a really good defense in spite of the loss that will play well against a struggling Trevor Siemian. The Bills are 7-0 ATS in their last games against the NFC as well as 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games. I believe in what the Bills have shown in the majority of their games rather than a couple of bad losses but the Saints are completely falling apart and I will bet that they will continue to do so.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
After the Buccaneers’ dominant win on Monday night football against a terrible Giants team, they seem to be back on track with Gronk back. But I am not buying I will have to see them beat a team that’s better than the Giants to know that what we saw for two weeks was just a fluke and not who they are. Even though Carson Wentz has some really bad stupid mistakes he does I believe in what they have been doing in recent weeks. The reason why I am believing in them is that they are coming off three straight victories after taking the Titans to overtime and destroying the Bills two of the best teams in the AFC. The Colts have been really good against the spread this season with a record of 7-4 and 6-2 in their last 8 games. Conversely, the Bucs have been pretty bad ATS with just a record of 4-6 and 0-5 in their last 5 road games. I think this is the best home dog of the week so I will definitely take those points at home.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos
Justin Herbert was in a little bit of a slump but has come back from that in this past game against the Steelers throwing for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing for 90 yards and scoring 41 points. The Broncos are coming out of the bye week after the ass-kicking from the Eagles where they were unable to get their running game going which seems to be the key to their offense. I am going with the trend of away teams winning ATS this season much more frequently than home teams. I think the Chargers will definitely be able to outscore the Broncos who have only scored 30 points just once this season. Los Angeles is 4-0 against teams that are currently out of the playoff picture and the Broncos have only beaten just one team that has better than a .500 record. The Broncos are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and 1-4 in their last 5 games against teams in the AFC. I will lay the points on the road in this one and feel pretty comfortable doing so.
Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have just a 5-5 record but easily could be undefeated if a few key plays go their way in each of their losses. They have kept it close with everybody and have fought tough against some of the best teams in the league and just beat the rival Green Bay Packers. They have back-to-back good wins including a road win over the Chargers in week 10 I feel good about taking the points in this game with how the Vikings can keep this game close and even if they lose, I don’t think they will lose more than three so worst-case scenario it will be a push. The Vikings are a pretty good 6-4 ATS as well as 4-1 in their last 5 games. The 49ers are just 4-6 ATS and 2-4 in their last 6 games against NFC teams.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ New York Giants
The Giants look like a complete mess after getting beatdown by the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Their offense looks so bad, bad enough that they just offensive coordinator Jason Garrett after scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 5 games. The Giants are the only team not to score 30 points this season. That poor offense will have to go up against an Eagles defense that is 12th in passing yards allowed per game and 13th in total yards allowed. The Eagles have won their last two games in a pretty dominant fashion against the Broncos and Saints. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and are 6-5 overall. I have no problem laying just 3 points against a really bad Giants team that seems to have little hope right now.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
