WEEK 11 RECAP
Week 11 Record: 3-1-1
Overall Record: 29-24-1
MY BEST PICK
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5)
Final Score: Kansas City 30-27
Once again big point spreads in a close divisional matchup between 2 teams with winning records do not favor the favorite. There have been many examples this season that is why I took the Chargers and the points. A minute and 46 seconds is too much time for Patrick Mahomes to go down and score the winning touchdown. It was a back-and-forth battle the entire way and, in the end, the better team won. Joshua Palmer had a nice day for the Chargers but it couldn’t compete with what Kelce did getting 115 yards and 3 touchdowns. That combination of Mahomes to Kelce is pretty unstoppable.
MY WORST PICK
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
Final Score: Cincinnati 37-30
My only loss of the week and once again it ruined my 5 team ties win parlay. Like I said last week I was taking another roll of the dice and it came up snake eyes this time. The Steelers played them tough throughout the game even taking a 20-17 lead at halftime. Burrow has just been playing too well of late and had 355 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. It was Perine and not Mixon who carried the load for the Bengals with more carries and yards. He caught 3 touchdowns in the game. Pickett played one of his better games with help from Najee Harris having 90 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bengals have now won their 4th game in the last 5 with 30 points in all 4 wins. They have done that with Jamarr Chase out of the lineup for the past few weeks.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 11: 11-3
- Overall: 99-64-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 11: 6-6-2
- Overall: 68-90-6
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 11: 4-8
- Overall: 83-71-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 11: 4-7-1
- Overall: 77-79-5
OVER/UNDER
- Week 11: 8-6
- Overall: 68-94-2
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions (+3, ML +140) @ New York Giants
Final Score: Detroit 31-18
Dan Campbell looks like he is finally getting what he wants out of his team. The Lions have won 3 straight games with this latest one beating the 7-win Giants by two touchdowns. The Lions’ defense which has been pretty terrible stepped up and stopped Saquon Barkley for just 22 yards on 15 carries. This forced Daniel Jones to throw more than usual which led to more mistakes. He threw 44 times completing 27 but threw 2 interceptions. The Lions’ backfield had a good day against the Giants’ defense running 37 times for 160 yards and 4 touchdowns. Running the ball more definitely seemed to help out Jared Goff a lot. I feel like the Lions have some momentum going forward and will be a touchy matchup if teams overlook them as the Giants seemed to do.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ Minnesota Vikings
Final Score: Dallas 40-3
From the start, it was pure and utter domination by the Dallas Cowboys. On the 1st drive of the game, Micah Parsons imposed his will by causing a sack-fumble. The Cowboys were angry after the loss to the Packers and took it out on the Vikings. It was a complete game by the Cowboys on all fronts defense, offense, and special teams. Tony Pollard had a great day both rushing and receiving scoring 2 touchdowns. The Vikings chose not to exploit the Cowboys’ run defense which led to Kirk Cousins being sacked 7 times. If the Cowboys stick to the formula of running the ball and playing good defense, they will keep on these dominant performances.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts (ML +240)
Final Score: Philadelphia 17-16
The Colts had the lead for almost the entire game. If you had the Colts on the money line looking for a big payday you felt good about your bet for most of this game. Philadelphia got extremely lucky on their game-winning drive by getting a questionable pass interference which got them to the Colts’ 28-yard line. The Colts had to know Jalen Hurts was going to run yet they leave the middle of their defense wide open so he can run right through and score the touchdown I just think the Eagles go really lucky and should have lost this one. It may have been a bad beat on the money line but I was definitely right on the money picking the Colts (+6) against the spread. I knew they could carry the momentum into this game from their win against the Raiders.
WEEK 12 BETS
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (+9.5)
For a Detroit Lions who has been hot winning 3 games in a row 9.5 points is a lot to give especially when they are the home team on Thanksgiving. The Lions have scored 31 points in their last 2 games. They can lean on their run game like they did against the Giants. Due to all the snow in Buffalo this will be their second straight game in Detroit. Josh Allen has shown to make some mistakes throwing had picks or the fumbled snap against the Vikings. The Lions have been good against the spread in their last 19 games going 13-6 in that stretch.
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders (-4)
Maybe the hottest team winning 5 out of the last 6 games, the Commanders and quarterback Taylor Heinicke have been rolling. I said I would ride this wave until it crashes and it hasn’t crashed yet. The Falcons have the worst passing defense in the NFL and the bottom half of the league in rushing defense. The Commanders have 2 backs that can run on this Falcons’ defense. The Falcons have been bad recently ATS going 1-4 in their last 5 games. Washington on the other hand has been great ATS going 5-0-1 in their last 6 games.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
This is the perfect bounce-back game for Geno Smith and the Seahawks’ offense after losing to Brady and the Bucs in Germany a couple of weeks ago. They are coming off a bye week so they have had some time to get healthy and prepare for this matchup. The Raiders’ defense has not been good all season. Except for the bad Broncos offense last week every other team the Raiders have played has put up 20 points or more. 3.5 points is a small enough number to lay the points against a bad Raiders team. Seattle has been good recently ATS going 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Green Bay Packers (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have not looked all that great in the last 2 weeks. They lost to the Commanders and should have lost to the Colts last week getting a one-point victory. I think their struggles will continue going into this week against the Packers. They have had problems running with their backs it’s mostly been Hurts. I believe the Packers can keep it within 7 points as Rodgers has been ok recently against 2 good defenses playing the Cowboys and Titans in their last 2 matchups. If they just run the ball more then I think they can actually win. The Eagles have not been good against the spread going 2-4 in their last 6 games.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
I feel that the Titans are getting disrespected by the oddsmakers by getting 2.5 points at home when they have a better record than the Bengals. The Bengals definitely can put up points but the Titans have a really good defense having 6 games this season holding their opponent under 20 points. All the Titans have to do I what they have been doing and lean on Derrick Henry. The Titans have been perfect in their last 8 games against the spread as they are one of the best teams ATS this season.
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