WEEK 10 RECAP
Week 10 Record: 2-3
Overall Record: 26-23-1
MY BEST PICK
New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Final Score: Pittsburgh 20-10
Last week I said I didn’t have much to go off of for this bet. I was going with my gut and my faith in myself paid off with this one. I just really didn’t like what I saw from the Saints in that Monday Night game against the Ravens. I felt like that bad play would continue especially when they didn’t run the ball much and relied on Andy Dalton to win the game. The Steelers relied on their run game finally getting Najee Harris going and running 43 times for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. That is a formula that can work for the Steelers as they continue to develop Kenny Pickett. This was just another reason I love taking the home dog.
MY WORST PICK
Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders (-6)
How do you let an interim head coach with no experience who was just an analyst on tv a couple of weeks ago beat you? You can say the Raiders didn’t do this or failed to make that play whatever you like. Sometimes the simplest answer is the right answer and that is the Las Vegas Raiders suck. Jeff Saturday made the decision to go back to Matt Ryan as their starting quarterback. Matt Ryan had a nice game and did what he needed to win. But the biggest reason was that the Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup and he looked to be back to his old self, running 22 times for 147 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders’ defense has been bad all season and it could have looked worse as you watch 37-year-old Matt Ryan running for 36 yards on 3rd and 3 in the 4th quarter when the Raiders were up by 1. Matt Ryan throws the winning touchdown 2 plays later. I was very confident in this pick though I didn’t know they were going back to Ryan, but that is just part of making picks early in the week.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 10: 6-8
- Overall: 88-61-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 10: 5-9
- Overall: 62-84-4
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 10: 8-5
- Overall: 79-63-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 10: 7-6
- Overall: 73-72-4
OVER/UNDER
- Week 10: 7-7
- Overall: 60-88-2
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Washington Commanders (+11, ML +390) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Final Score: Washington 32-21
This is why a big point spread in a divisional matchup is so scary. Rivals know each other really well and especially against a rival that has been hot in recent weeks as the Commanders have been since Heinicke took over. The Eagles’ weaknesses were exposed in this game. The run defense has been a problem for them and they gave up 152 yards on the ground. The Eagles’ inability to score in the 2nd half also showed up in this game as they only scored 7 points in the 2nd half. They had a bunch of turnovers in the game which included 3 fumbles and an interception. The Eagles couldn’t run the ball and barely had the ball at all in the game. McLaurin got a lot of the big plays for the Commanders as he caught 8 receptions for 128 yards. I haven’t bought into the Eagles even though they have the best record because of the flaws they showed in this game.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Final Score: Miami 39-17
With Tua back, the Dolphins have been red hot as they have now won 4 straight games and scored over 30 points in their last 3 games. He had another good day throwing 3 touchdowns and overwhelming the Browns with their firepower. Jeff Wilson Jr. just got to the Dolphins and went off for 17 carries 119 yards and a touchdown. The Browns only gave it to Chubb 11 times which was a big reason for the bow out if they don’t give it to him, they likely will lose. The Browns couldn’t keep pace and were nowhere close to covering the spread.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Final Score: Minnesota 33-30
It was just one of the worst types of blunders to fumble in your own endzone because of a bad snap and have the opponent recover the ball for a touchdown. The Bills were up 4 points covering the spread with only 49 seconds left in the game. All they had to do is run off less than a minute off the clock. What was even worse than that just a couple of drives before the Bills had a 10-point lead and were on the Minnesota 7-yard line ready to go up by 17 points. That is when Josh Allen throws a pick at the 5-yard line which allowed the Vikings to go down and cut the lead to 4. They had a chance to cover in overtime but after the Bills couldn’t hold the Vikings which led to the game-winning field goal Even if the Bills scored the touchdown to win the game in overtime, they still would not have covered the spread.
WEEK 11 BETS
Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)
I am a big believer in momentum carrying over from a big win and after a major change at quarterback or head coach and the Colts had both. I picked the Jets and the Commanders after their wins when they had changes at quarterback and they both carried that juice over to the next game and won. I will go with it again taking the Colts with the points, especially against the Eagles who just came off a very sloppy game on Monday Night losing to the Commanders. The Eagles have trouble stopping the run and with Jonathan Taylor back in action, the Eagles will once again have a problem. If the Colts can manage to keep it close or take the lead in the first half then the Eagles have trouble scoring in the 2nd half which will ensure the Colts cover the spread. I don’t think the Colts will win but I think it will be much closer than the spread suggests.
Washington Commanders (-3) vs Houston Texans
This is the only favorite I am taking this week looking at the trends they are going in the favor of the underdogs but I am going to continue to ride the Taylor Heinicke wave until it inevitably crashes. They have won 4 out of their last 5 games with their latest one beating the undefeated Eagles. The Commanders are not scoring a whole hell of a lot of points which means their defense is playing well keeping other offenses out of the endzone. The Texans have one weapon that’s Dameon Pierce. If Washington stops him then Davis Mills will have to beat them. They kept Philly under 100 yards rushing. I think they can do the same here. Washington is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games and Houston is just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
Chicago Bears (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons
In terms of the spread, the Falcons have completely fallen off a cliff. They started 6-0 and have not covered a spread since. Mariota has been inconsistent throughout the season but in their last 2 games, he’s been pretty bad and doesn’t seem to be getting any better. Though the Bears have been giving up a lot of points on defense recently the Falcons are not the team that’s going to take advantage of that. The Falcons have failed to score 20 points 4 times in the last 6 games. Justin Fields got this Bears rushing offense going they have scored 29 or more points in the last 4 games. I like the Bears to keep their high-scoring trend going and cover the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
Last week I bet the Steelers without much confidence and you know what I am going to roll the dice once again. It will be a much tougher matchup than the Saints but divisional matchups always are. This Steelers’ defense is different and much better with T.J. Watt in the lineup. The Steelers got after Burrow in the last matchup sacking him 7 times. Alex Highsmith sacked Burrow 3 times in the first game and just had 2 sacks last week which made him AFC defensive player of the week. I believe they will get after Burrow in this game as they did last time which will cause Burrow to make mistakes as it did in the first matchup. The Bengals were able to come back to take it to overtime last time by throwing to Jamarr Chase but this time they will be without him. Going with my gut paid off last time so I’m confident it will again.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5)
By now I think we have seen that big point spreads in a divisional rivalry game have not worked out for the favorite. Now 6.5 points may not look huge but it is for a team with a winning record playing at home. In the last matchup in Kansas City, the Chargers were leading for 3 quarters in a close 3-point game. That was on the road and now at home I think the Chargers can play at least as well which may not give them the win but at least they will cover and that’s all I am worried about. The Chargers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games and the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Chargers.
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