There have never been more weeks to bet on football than this upcoming fall. With an extra week of football to bet on it is important to know how much to bet every week. How much to risk is based on how much you can afford to risk to have to still have the ability to keep betting throughout the duration of the season including playoffs. There will be good days and bad days in betting but the way to mitigate your losses on the bad days is to only bet a certain percentage of your bankroll that you are comfortable risking each week. You can budget your betting by either setting an amount for the entire season and dividing that by each week or you can set an amount for each week and put a percentage per bet you place. When betting futures before like the over/under win totals of the NFC West you want to make sure you fit those bets in your bankroll as well. This division looks to be really in recent years as 4 of the last 8 Superbowls have had an appearance from an NFC West team. These teams have made big trades and major signings in order to gain an edge in winning this division.
It was just 4 years ago that the Los Angeles Rams took a risk on young 30-year-old Sean McVay. Since then, he has had much success in the league posting a 43-21 record which is 4th best during that span, two division titles, a Superbowl appearance, and missed the playoffs just once. The McVay era has been led by quarterback Jared Goff a solid QB that started off hot in McVay’s system winning 24 games, making the pro bowl twice, and having a passer rating over 100. In the last two seasons, he has had a decline in his production but most importantly not be able to get the Rams over the hump in playoffs. This has led to one of the biggest moves of the offseason when the Rams trade Jared Goff, 3rd round pick in 2021, 1st round pick in 2022, and 1st round pick in 2023, for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. I have never thought that Stafford was that good of a quarterback, yes, he always had a big arm but he has shown to be inaccurate with a career 62% completion percentage, he was a turnover machine early in his career, he has made just one pro bowl in 12 years in the same conference as Goff, and he has only made the playoffs twice with zero playoff wins. You can blame the Lions organization all you want for not putting enough around him but he played with a hall of fame receiver which Goff has never played with and has shown to be a guy that can just throw a deep shot downfield and that’s it. I have never been impressed with Stafford’s play and think the Rams gave up way too much for him because I just don’t think he plays winning football. The Rams also did not do much in free agency or the draft as they have traded their draft and made big signing in the last couple of seasons to put together a team, they thought was a QB away from winning the Superbowl, I just think they got the wrong QB. We will see more deep shots from Stafford as they signed WR Desean Jackson and drafted 2nd round pick WR Tutu Atwell out of Louisville. The Rams over/under win total is 10.5 with odds at over +105/under -125. I don’t think Stafford is good enough to get this team to 11 wins. I am absolutely taking the under in this case and with the odds at +180 they are the favorite to win the division due to the fact experts think they have an upgrade at quarterback but I do not which why I wouldn’t risk a dime betting on them to win the division.
Ever since the Seattle Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson and he led them to a Superbowl victory in just his 2nd season it looked like the beginning of a dynasty. But since the questionable decision not to give Marshawn Lynch the ball against the New England Patriots in the Superbowl the dynasty ended before it even got started. They have struggled in the playoffs since then as they have not made it past the divisional round of the playoffs since their Superbowl loss. On the brighter side, they have not had a losing season with Russell Wilson at quarterback and have only missed the playoffs once during that time. They always seem to win 10 or more games every season including last season as they finished first in the division with a 12-4 record which is why their over/under win total is set 10 wins and odds at over +105/under -125. In a very tough division, they have the 3rd-best odds to win it at +275. There has been much turnover since the time of the Legion Boom the Seahawks have shifted from a team that relied on defense and the running game to a team where Russell Wilson does most of the heavy lifting. This led to some turmoil within the organization this offseason with rumors that Russell wanted to trade and had a shortlist of teams that he wanted to go to due to the fact he did not have the pieces around him to be successful and that he was being sacked too much because the offensive line was so poor. To remedy this situation the Seahawks traded a 5th round pick for G Gabe Jackson who has 100 starts in his career as well as signed TE Gerald Everett and drafted WR Dwayne Eskridge in the second round of the draft. If head coach Pete Carroll can fully buy into an offense that lets Russell Wilson sling the ball all over the field, I believe the Seahawks can definitely win as many games as they did last year. This is why I will bet the over 10 wins and definitely think there is some great value in betting them at +275 to win the division.
Entering the season at the same time as Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan was another young head coach hiring of an offensive guru whose innovation would lead the San Fransico 49ers to a Superbowl Victory. Shanahan has not seen the same success in the regular season as McVay but also has gone just as far as McVay in the playoffs in just one Superbowl appearance. Their struggles in the regular season are largely due to not having a starting-caliber quarterback throughout the entire season. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has only played all 16 games of the regular season just once and to this point in his career has been labeled injury-prone. The year he was healthy he led the 49ers to a 13-3 record and they made the Superbowl. Due to Garoppolo’s inability to stay healthy, it has led the 49ers to trade 1st round pick in 2022, 1st round pick in 2023, and 3rd round pick in 2022 for the number 3 pick in the draft in order to select quarterback Trey Lance out of North Dakota State. To protect their investment as well as Jimmy Garoppolo they have signed multi-time Pro Bowler OT Trent Williams 6-year deal as well as draft 2nd round pick OL Aaron Banks out of Notre Dame. They have also have added some weapons by signing WR Mohamed Sanu and drafting RB Trey Sermon from Ohio State. The 49ers were hit with more than just the injuries at quarterback as they had a mountain of injuries on defense with the big one being the loss of Nick Bosa to an ACL injury. These setbacks led to a 6-10 record and finishing last in the division. With the 49ers getting back a lot of the pieces back from injuries and whether it is Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm I think they can get back to winning games as they did in the 2019 season. Their over/under win total is set at 10 wins with odds at over -140/under +120. They are favorited to go over which I agree with I would place my money on them to go over the 10 wins. They come in 2nd to win the division at +200 which in this case whatever money you have budgeted for this bet I would split it on the Seahawks and 49ers as I see it as a toss-up to be NFC West champs.
Following the trend of young offensive minds, the Arizona Cardinals hired Kliff Kingsbury in 2019. This move was criticized by many analysts and talking heads due to the fact that he wasn’t even a successful coach as head coach of Texas Tech. He only had 2 winning seasons as a head college football coach and that lack of winning has continued in his first two seasons with the Cardinals as he has posted a 5-10-1 record and an 8-8 record finishing 3rd in the division last year. Those seasons were led by quarterback Kyler Murray who even with a top receiver in Deandre Hopkins was only able to win 8 games failing to make the playoffs and posting just a 94.3 passer rating. Though he has similar stature as Russell Wilson I don’t think he can win like him nor does he have the same caliber of head coach or organization for him to be as successful. The big signings of their offseason came in old DE JJ Watt whose best days are behind him and also old WR A.J. Green who is coming off an injury and probably will never be the player he once was. They also traded a 3rd round pick for C Rodney Hudson whose is one of the best centers in the league and Drafted LB Zaven Collins and WR Rondale Moore. They had hits to the secondary losing long-time great CB Patrick Peterson and CB Jonathan Joseph. The Cardinals over/under win total is set at just 8 wins with the odds at –140/+120. That is a really good value to bet the under here as I don’t believe Kliff Kingsbury as a coach nor Kyler Murray as a quarterback. I think the Cardinals will finish in last place in the division and have no chance of winning the division with their odds set at +575.
odds from William Hill Sportsbook
