Beginner’s luck definitely can be a real thing when gambling. I have personal experience with that. Whether winning on the roulette table on my 21st birthday or the first football season that I was legally able to bet on, I ended up coming out ahead. If this upcoming football season is the first time you are betting, then you may experience beginner’s luck. Don’t let early success make you cocky in thinking that will continue and start making stupid bets. The fact is that most recreational bettors lose more than they win. Betting on football probably shouldn’t be your main source of income unless you actually become one of the sharp bettors. Handicapping football should just be fun but that doesn’t mean you can’t go into it with the right strategies and tips like obsessing over the value of a heavy underdog or knowing that favorites win about 66% of the time. If you have the right mindset can help you be successful betting this season especially when you are betting a division like the NFC South with one team clearly at the top and the others a bit in flux.
The phrase “let’s run it back” seems to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers motto this season as they spent their offseason making sure they kept their Super Bowl-winning team completely intact in an attempt to get back-to-back championships. There was some question in whether the goat Tom Brady can just change teams after being with the Pats for 20 years and immediately have success but that is exactly what happened last season. Even though they had some adjustment period when the Bucs started 7-5 with some tough losses but after that, it was smooth sailing all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year they gave Tom Brady a lot of control in picking the players he wanted to play with which is something that he wanted more of in New England which led to his departure. The Bucs have that same mindset this season that with those same players they can have the exact same success which is why they resigned them all. They made sure they had their main core together in players such as Lavonte David, Chris Godwin, Ndamukong Suh, Leonard Fournette, and Rob Gronkowski. They also added a few pieces in RB Giovani Bernard and drafted LB Joe Tryon in the first round, QB Kyle Trask out of Florida in the second, and G Robert Hainsey out of Notre Dame in the 3rd round. With the same team intact, I believe they can have the same type of overall success of last year but the question is how many regular-season wins does that amount to. They finished with an 11-5 record coming in 2nd in the division behind the Saints. The over/under win total is set at 12 with odds at over +100/ under – 120. Can the same team produce more wins? I’m going to take the over as I think due to the extra game this season the Bucs will either be right at 12 which will result in a push or be one game better. The Bucs are the clear favorite to win the division with odds at –200. I think betting them to win the division is the best bet as the other teams in the division just don’t seem to be on the same level with their current rosters.
With the retirement of one of the best quarterbacks of all time and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees, the most successful era of the New Orleans Saints has come to an end. The future success of this franchise is solely placed on the shoulders of their great head coach Sean Payton. The first thing he will have to do in keeping the Saints afloat is figuring out who will fill the shoes of Drew Brees. There are two candidates for the job and in my opinion, neither one is viable. Taysom Hill is just a gadget/running quarterback who can’t throw and Jameis Winston is a turnover machine who has very poor decision-making skills. No matter who Payton goes or even if he goes with both will lead to much success. On top of the departure of Brees, they had a lot of other pieces leave as well such as WR Emmanuel Sanders, DB Janoris Jenkins, TE Jared Cook, Malcolm Brown, and DL Sheldon Rankins. They also did not do much in free agency as they made no major signings as they struggled to under the salary cap. In the draft they acquired DE Payton Turner out of Houston, LB Pete Werner in the second, and QB Ian Book in round 4 to add to the mix of quarterbacks. The Saints over/under win total is set at 9 wins with odds set at over –110/under -110. Without a quality franchise quarterback, I don’t believe any team can be successful or win a lot of games which is why I will be clearly be taking the under here. I think the Saints will struggle to win games as they figure out their quarterback situation and I don’t think their roster is good enough to support them while they try to figure it out. They have the 2nd best odds to win the division at +300 which I see no value in betting on that to happen as the Bucs are head and shoulders a better team than the Saints.
Newly hired head coach Arthur Smith will have his work cut out for him as he arrives in the division with the defending Superbowl champs. After firing defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn who led them to a Superbowl the Atlanta Falcons went in a different with the recently successful former offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans who had the number 2 offense in the league and resurrected Ryan Tannehill’s career. He will be taking over a team that finished last in the division with a 4-12 record. There was a lot of debate before the draft on whether the Falcons would replace quarterback Matt Ryan or give more support around him. With the top 3 quarterbacks taken right before the Falcons made their pick it seemed the decision was made for them. They opted to put pieces around him such as RB Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, trading a 7th round pick for TE Lee Smith. With the 4th overall pick in the draft, the Falcons selected TE Kyle Pitts out of Florida who was highly touted as the most talented overall player in the draft. They also traded up in the second round for S Richie Grant out of UCF and took OT Jalen Mayfield out of Michigan in the third round. I believe they still have a lot of holes on defense which led to last season’s major debacles when they were up big in games and found a way to lose them. They also lost one of the most valuable pieces over the last decade in WR Julio Jones. Their over/under win total is set at 7.5 with odds at over-125/ under +105. Having a new head coach along with not having a good enough defense I don’t think the Atlanta Falcons with have much success this season which is why I will be betting the under. They are 3rd to win the division with odds at +800 which I think is better value to me than the betting on the Saints and if you want to throw down a couple of bucks on the bet it’s not awful futures bet, I just don’t think it will happen.
One of the teams that were in major pursuit of a new starting quarterback was the Carolina Panthers. They finally settled on trading a 6th round pick (2021), 2nd round pick (2022), and 4th round pick (2022) for the former 3rd overall pick in 2018 draft former Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. So far in his career, he has not been good as he has struggled statistically and in the win column. Now I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt due to his situation in New York which had one of the most incompetent coaches in Adam Gase and one of the most incompetent organizations in the NFL. He is also still very young at just 24 years old he can still get better. I believe the Carolina Panthers also have a better team around him with more weapons and especially a better offensive line by securing one of the key pieces in OL Taylor Moton. I also liked what the Panthers did in the draft as they selected CB Jaycee Horn South Carolina in the first round, WR Terrace Marshall LSU in the 2nd round, and RB Chubba Hubbard Oklahoma St. In the 4th round. I think the Panthers have done a good job in surrounding Sam Darnold with enough pieces in order to be a successful season. He will be leading a team that finished third in the division with a 5-11 record. Their over/under win total is set at 7.5 with odds at over +105/-125. I think the Panthers are good enough to get to 8 wins this season and will take the over. I am willing to take the gamble on Darnold turning his career around but if he fails in this situation, I don’t think he will get another chance to prove he is a viable quarterback in the league. With odds at +1200, the Panthers are projected to finish worst in the division but I don’t they will finish last nor do I think they have any shot at winning this division.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
