The phrase “hedging your bet” was first coined in the 17th century in reference to laying off a bet by taking out smaller bets with other lenders. The term to hedge comes from hedges, which are fences made from bushes or trees with a spiny Hawthorne which makes it an impenetrable hedge. To hedge a land meant to limit in size which led to the meaning of to secure or limit risk. Hedge funds in the stock market take their meaning from the limit risk aspect. In betting it means to protect oneself against loss on a bet by making balancing or compensating transactions. Hedging is a strategy used by sports bettors to reduce the risk of a wager or to guarantee a profit. To hedge a bet a bettor will place a second wager against the original bet because they either think they will lose the original bet or even if they think they will win they want insurance on it. When a bettor makes an additional wager, they do not make as much as the original bet but it does limit the risk of loss. Hedging is especially useful when making long-term futures bets like over/under win totals and division winners. This allows bettors who made an early risky bet that overtime does not look like a winner able to be hedged and can either be a winner or be less of a loser. For example, if you bet the under 10.5 wins on the Green Bay Packers in anticipation that Aaron Rodgers was not going to be back with the team this upcoming season now would be a good time to hedge your bet as he has announced he will report to training camp and will be the quarterback for the Packers this season. If you put a $100 on the under at +100 to win $100 then now you would put $120 on the over at –120 to win $100 you would limit your loss by $80 and only lose $20 on the vig or could bet more on the additional bet to become profitable but still be at risk of losing more if they don’t hit the over even with Aaron Rodgers. Many events like this will happen throughout the season which will make you rethink your initial futures bets and it will be useful to know when and how to hedge those bets especially when betting on the NFC North where two teams have brand new QBs and could change them at any point in the season.
After a long war between Green Bay Packers’ reigning MVP Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the team’s management, it seems that they have come to some sort of compromise at least for the 2021 season. Aaron Rodgers who has been upset with how the Packers have been managed, starting with drafting his backup in the first round of the 2020 draft and continuing to not surround him with weapons and feels disrespected by management with different things that have been said in the media. Even the Packers were not sure whether he would return as they had to “hedge their bet” at the quarterback position by adding Blake Bortles and Kurt Benkert for insurance to 2nd year 1st round pick Jordan Love. Besides the Aaron Rodgers drama, the Packers didn’t make huge moves in the offseason as they did not do much in free agency and continued to do what they always do and resign their own guys. In the draft, they selected CB Eric Stokes (Georgia) in the first round, OL Josh Myers (Ohio State) in the second, and 3rd round pick WR Amari Rogers (Clemson). They also hired Joe Barry as their new defensive coordinator to hopefully make the Packers’ defense much more explosive. In Aaron Rodgers’ MVP season he led them to a 13-3 record and won the division. I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t do the same this season which I will take the over 10.5 with odds at over –120/under +100 and don’t really see the other three teams being able to compete with them for the division with odds at –150 they are the clear favorites to win it as long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy.
There has been a lot of turnover in the last couple of years with the Minnesota Vikings as they have seen players that have been staples of the team let go such as Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Kyle Rudolph, Reily Reiff, Dan Bailey. To try to replace the deficiency in the secondary they signed CB Patrick Peterson. They also signed free agents DT Dalvin Tomlinson, and LB Nick Vigil. In this year’s draft, they selected OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech) in the 1st round, QB Kellen Mond (Texas A&M) in the 3rd round, and G Wyatt Davis (Ohio State) in the 3rd round. They have moved on from bust WR Laquon Treadwell and made up for that mistake by drafting rising star WR Justin Jefferson. One mistake I think they need to remedy is the one at quarterback. Kirk Cousins always has been good statistically in his career but that has not amounted to very many wins as he has only made the playoffs twice in his career with just one very lucky playoff win. He has not shown to be a quarterback that can win in big games as he has just a 6-13 record in primetime games. The Vikings are coming off another disappointing season with a 7-9 record finishing 3rd in the division. I think we have seen what Cousins can do and that doesn’t lead to a winning team which is why I will take the under 9 wins with odds at over-110/under-110. I don’t see them competing with the Packers even though they have the second-best odds to win the division at +250.
One team that did realize their mistake at quarterback and is at least trying to fix it is the Chicago Bears. The Bears have been harshly criticized ever since trading up in the 2017 draft to select QB Mitchell Trubisky and passing on Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. 4 seasons later they have decided to move on from Trubisky who has kind of been the opposite of Cousins by having a winning record so far in his career but statistically has not been good. But the winning record has more to do with the scheme and what has been around him. To replace him the Bears have signed free agent quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton seems to be a placeholder for 1st round pick QB Justin Fields out of Ohio State. From the games, I have seen from Fields I was thoroughly unimpressed with his performances. He was the main reason for Ohio State struggling against Indiana, Northwestern, and Alabama. I did not like this selection if the Bears want to win now as I think it will take a while to develop him into a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Bears have had a busy free agency by signing DE Mario Edwards, RB Damien Williams, LB Jeremiah Attaouchu, OT Germain Ifedi, WR Marquise Goodwin, TE Jesse James, TE Jake Butt and trying to replace the loss of CB Kyle Fuller with Desmond Trufant. In the draft, they attempted to fill the hole left by the loss of Charles Leno with 2nd round pick OT Tevin Jenkins from Oklahoma St. Whether they start Dalton and put in Fields later in the season or start Fields right away I feel the Bears will struggle to win many games this season. I think they will fall short of their 8-8 record of last year finishing 2nd in the division and making the playoffs. Their over/under win total is at 7.5 wins with odds at over –110/under -110 and have 3rd best odds to win the division at +475. I will obviously take the under here as I feel they have the wrong quarterback yet again which is what the Bears have done throughout most of the history of the franchise and don’t see any hope for them winning the division.
Another team in the north moving on from their quarterback is the Detroit Lions. The Lions have had a very active offseason kicking off with a big move in trading Matthew Stafford to the Rams for QB Jared Goff, a 1st round pick (2022), 1st round pick (2023), and 3rd round pick (2021). I feel that the Lions got the better end of this trade. I think Matthew Stafford is very similar to Kirk Cousins in that he has really good stats every season but does not win enough as he has a losing record (74-90-1) in his career. Now part of that is mismanagement by the Lions organization but he has done nothing to rectify that losing culture even with playing with a hall of fame WR in Calvin Johnson. To me, he is just a one-trick pony that can throw a good deep ball. He has made just one pro bowl when Jared Goff has made it twice in the same conference. I don’t feel that the Lions are losing much at the quarterback position with Jared Goff who may not be great but I don’t think Stafford was great either. They continued their active offseason by signing WR Tyrell Wiliams, TE Josh Hill, TE Darren Fells, WR Bershad Perriman, WR Kalif Raymond, and traded for DL Michael Brokers. I really liked what they did in the draft when they selected the best offensive linemen in the draft OT Penei Sewell (Oregon) in the 1st round, DL Levi Onwuzurike (Washington) in the 2nd round, CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (Syracuse) in the 3rd round, and WR Amon Ra St Brown (USC) in the 4th round. But I believe that determining how many wins they will have this season will depend on how the players buy into newly hired head coach Dan Campbell. He is a coach who coaches off emotion and has a very fiery tough-guy attitude. I think that may be able to inject some energy in the losing culture Lions are infamously known for especially after a 5-11 season in which they finished last in the division. He was able to do that for a couple of games as interim head coach of the Dolphins in 2015. Since then, he has been an assistant coach under Sean Payton in New Orleans. I don’t think long-term emotion can be sustain winning but for at least this season I think it can give them enough wins to hit the over which is at just 5 wins with odds at over-110/under-110. The Lions have the worst odds to win the division at +2500 which I don’t think they will win but at that value, I wouldn’t be opposed to putting a couple of dollars on that just for the hell of it.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
