The one thing that I have struggled with the most since I first started gambling on football is sports betting bias. There are many different types of sports betting bias that can majorly affect a bettor’s future profits or losses. The bias that I struggle with is favorite team bias which is overestimating your favorite team and underestimating the opposing team. Whether it is loyalty or superstition you always find ways to overrate them and find ways that your team will win games will impossible odds. It is hard for me to separate rooting for my team and rooting for my money. If I think my team does not have a good chance to cover the point spread, I just won’t place a bet at all or maybe just bet on the over/under because it is just too hard for me personally to separate rooting for my team vs rooting for my money. The biggest bias the many average sports bettors suffer from is “Gambler’s Fallacy” this is the mistaken belief that if something happens more often than normal during a certain time period, it will happen less often in the future. For example, if a team goes on a losing or winning streak you think the team is due for the opposite to happen. This is incorrect thinking as the past does not dictate the future if you think a result is bound to happen just because it hasn’t happened in a while you experiencing a gambler’s fallacy. Recency bias is extremely common in many walks of life not just sports gambling. Don’t put too much weight on the most recent event. Oddsmakers take advantage of this when they know the public will react to an event that was significant or out of the norm which will have a major impact on the following week’s odds. Outcome bias is changing the way you bet based on one positive or negative outcome and you neglect strategies to just go by a feeling you have. Stick to a strategy that uses all the information that is available to you. When you are seeking information don’t fall victim to confirmation bias is favoring information that confirms what you already believe to be true. Two other biases are home team bias which is the tendency of sports bettors to overvalue the home team and favorite-longshot bias which is likely to overvalue longshots/underdogs the home team. I try hard to not let my biases affect the way I bet and even how I will write about the NFC East as I love Dallas Cowboys and hate the other three teams in the division.
Last season was very to watch as a fan of the Dallas Cowboys. I didn’t feel very hopeful after seeing Dak Prescott break his ankle and go on Injured Reserve after just week 5. Even with Dak, you saw how bad the defense was and how much the Cowboys turned over the ball which caused him to have to give monster efforts in order to win games. If he had stayed healthy Dak would have had to drag the team to 8-8 or 9-7. The problems on defense were caused by a multitude of reasons starting with the defensive coordinator Mike Nolan who was a bad hire and seemed like he was only hired because head coach Mike McCarthy had a good relationship with him as he was the one who first hired McCarthy. The scheme that Nolan implemented was confusing and the players were not buying into it which led to cutting bad free agent signings and trading away DE Everson Griffen. Linebackers seemed out of place as Jaylon Smith looked like he regressed in awareness never in the right gap to stop the run and tackling guys that were already 10 yards downfield. The secondary was young and inexperienced and it definitely showed. But there were bright spots with a few players showing flashes as they started to get some semblance of defense after Nolan was fired. The offensive line was completely decimated with injuries as 4 players ended up on IR and as we saw in the Super Bowl you need your starting offensive line. Backup quarterback Andy Dalton had little protection which eventually led to him getting hurt as well and the Cowboys started 4 different quarterbacks throughout the season. There were many problems that led to 6-10 finishing 3rd in the worst division in football. The Cowboys have taken steps to rectify some of the issues they had last year. They hired defensive coordinator Dan Quinn who was a part of building the Legion of Boom and taking the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl. They will be getting back their starting quarterback in Dak Prescott who is the favorite to win comeback player of the year at +180. They have the best WR core with Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb. They spent the offseason trying to build up the defense by signing Pro Bowl S converting to LB Keanu Neal as well as Damontae Kazee who led the league in interceptions in 2018 both played for Dan Quinn in Atlanta. They just signed former 1st round pick S Malik Hooker. To help replace the veteran presence left by the retirement of Tyrone Crawford they signed DL Brent Urban and DL Tarell Basham. After the retirement of Sean Lee, injuries to Vander Esch, and suspect play by Jaylon Smith the Cowboys had a big need in the linebacking core which is why they spent their 1st round pick in the draft on LB Micah Parson (Penn State). They also got a steal in the draft by taking LB Jabril Cox (LSU). Most of the Cowboys draft was focused on defense including 2nd round pick CB Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky) and two 3rd round picks on defensive linemen. I believe with a healthy Dak Prescott and healthy O-line and the top-notch WR core the Cowboys can have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. With the changes made on the defense, they may not be great but they can be good enough to support the offense that will be able to control the ball. The Dallas Cowboys over/under win total is set at 9 wins with odds at over –140/under +120. I’m going to try to leave my bias out of it but I will absolutely take the over. I believe the Cowboys can win a lot of games this year as they have the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL. They can definitely go well over 9 wins and I would bet them big to win the division as they are the favorite to win it with odds at +115 because we clearly have the best quarterback in the division and it’s not close.
One team had to win the dreadful NFC East division in 2020 and it ended up being the 7-9 Washington Football Team. They started 4 different quarterbacks last season as they struggled to find someone who could be consistent. They found brief success with comeback player of the year Alex Smith who ultimately got them the division but then eventually got injured as well which led to Taylor Heinicke starting the playoff game and losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Bucs. Alex Smith retired which again left Washington without a quarterback which led them to sign free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick who has been a journeymen quarterback throughout his career and has played for what seems like half the league has never made the playoffs. The main reason why they even won seven games solely is due to their great defense led by the defensive rookie of the year Chase Young. A longtime staple of the defense departed in Ryan Kerrigan as well CB Ronald Darby and LB Mychal Kendricks. To continue to bolster the defense they drafted LB Jamin Davis (Kentucky) in the first round. To help protect 38-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick they drafted 2nd round pick OT Samuel Cosmi out of Texas. The Washington Football Team’s over/under win total is set at 8.5 wins with odds at over +100/under -120. I do not think this team can win many games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback as he has his Fitzmagic moments but not enough to consistently win I think it was a major mistake to sign him and not get anyone else which is why I will take the under. They have 2nd best odds to win the division at +260 but unless the defense completely carries the team, I can’t see them really competing.
As every team in the NFC East struggled at the quarterback position in the 2020 season the New York Giants were no exception. Quarterback Daniel Jones failed to have consistent production throughout the season which led to scoring under 10 points 3 times. The biggest reason for his struggles was that he was unable to extend drives. Some of the pieces around him did not show up either such as Evan Engram dropping passes and misuse of Golden Tate also having a weak offensive line did not help. But the bright spot of the Giants came in the way of the defense led by LB Blake Martinez and pro bowl CB James Bradberry. The Giants had a top 15 defense in the league which kept them in games that they lost due to the lack of production on offense. They let go WR Golden Tate, G Kevin Zeitler, DE Dalvin Tomlinson, RBs Dion Lewis and Wayne Gallman. They signed LB Reggie Ragland, TE Kyle Rudolph, and major free agent signing to help replace Tate in WR Kenny Golladay. This will a crucial year for Daniel as the Giants continued to add weapons for him in the draft selecting 1st round pick Kadarius Toney (Florida). They also added to their defense with 2nd round pick LB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia) and 4th round pick LB Ellerson Smith (Northern Iowa). I believe they can build on their strength in defense which can cover up the deficiencies in their offense. I think this is will be a make-or-break year for Daniel Jones which can lead to progression in his game which will allow to them winning more games than last year. The Giants over/under win total is set at 7 wins with odds at over –130/under +110 which I think they will be able to hit the over if Daniel Jones can take that next step in his game. The Giants have the 3rd best odds to win the division +425 which is a decent value if you want to be a contrarian or just want to bet someone else in the division besides the Cowboys.
Just 3 seasons after winning the Super Bowl the Philadelphia have fallen far all the way down to last in a division where you only needed 7 wins to win it. There were many contributors to their fall one being that they don’t know how to handle success. Other contributing factors were lack of weapons at the skill positions at both running back and receiver but also a deteriorating offense including major injury and age to the anchor of the line in Jason Peters. But I think the main reason for the decline starts at the top with the play of Carson Wentz. He has not been able to stay healthy and his completion percentage has come way down which led to his benching for rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts. Even in his best year I never thought he was that good of a quarterback as he would be way too inaccurate and throw the most idiotic balls I have ever seen. The Eagles have finally moved on from Wentz by trading him to the Colts for a 3rd round pick (2021) and 2nd round pick (2022). Philadelphia did not go after any free agents QBs in free agency nor the draft which meant they were going with Jalen Hurts who did not play well at all in his limited time as the starter going 1-3 and having just 52 percent completion percentage. They have also moved on from Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson. He was fired after a very ugly season going 4-11-1 finishing last in the bad NFC East. The Eagles have followed the trend of hiring young offensive coordinators as head coach with surprise candidate Nick Sirianni who has never been a head coach before and served as Colts OC for just 3 seasons. Some of the Eagles’ key departures include WR Desean Jackson, CB Jalen Mills, OT Jason Peters, DE Vinny Curry, and WR Alshon Jeffery. In free agency, they signed QB Joe Flacco, LB Eric Wilson, RB Kerryon Johnson, and DE Ryan Kerrigan. In the draft they selected 1st round pick WR Devonta Smith (Alabama) who I feel is way too small to play in the NFL due to the fact there have not been many players who have been successful at his weight and in the 2nd round, they have tried to replace the loss of Peters with OT Landon Dickerson (Alabama). I feel the Eagles have very little chance of winning games this season as they have a serious lack of talent on offense and old aging talent on defense with an atrocious secondary. I think they have the wrong starting quarterback and a head coach that is very questionable. Their over/under win total is 6.5 with odds at over –140/ under +120 which I will very certainly take the under as I think the Eagles will be one of the worst teams in football if not the worst team. Their odds to win the division are not that bad at +500 but I think that has more to do with what the oddsmakers think of the rest of the division than having any faith in Eagles which I do not and wouldn’t spend a penny on them winning the division.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
