WILD CARD ROUND RECAP
Wild Card Round Record: 3-3
Overall Record: 44-50-2
MY BEST PICK
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
Even though this was the biggest point spread of the weekend I had no problem laying the points in this one. I was totally confident in the Chiefs offense to steamroll the Steelers. I wasn’t even fazed when the Steelers took an early lead because it was a defensive touchdown and knew their offense would not be able to do much going forward.
MY WORST PICK
Philadelphia Eagles (+9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Everything that I thought the Eagles would do to cover the spread did not happen. The Eagles’ running offense was completely ineffective against Tampa’s defense and Tom Brady was able to take full advantage on offense. The only hope I had when the Bucs went up 31-0 going into the 4th quarter was for the backdoor cover which had a chance to hit as the Eagles scored 15 points, but it was not enough.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up: 5-1
- Against The Spread: 5-1
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up: 5-1
- Against the Spread: 5-1
OVER/UNDER
- Wild Card Weekend: 2-4
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
San Fransisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) (ML –160)
The Cowboys got off to a terrible start to the game as their offensive line could not block anyone which didn’t open any hole for the running backs and couldn’t protect Dak Prescott as he was sacked 5 times. The 49ers’ run game gashed the Cowboys’ defense which limited the opportunities the Cowboys had on offense. A bad interception by Jimmy G let the Cowboys back in the game which came down to the last play of the game which the Cowboys screwed on as they did throughout the day by the refs. Even if the Cowboys would have scored on the last drive it would still not have been enough to cover the three-point spread. Most of the money and bets were on the Cowboys to win and cover the spread so those who faded the public got a good payout. Final Score: 23-17
LARGEST COVER ATS
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-4)
Out of the 3 blowouts of the week, the biggest one was the Bills’ domination over their AFC East rival Patriots. This game turned out to look more like the 2nd matchup than the 1st. It was basically over from the start as the Bills took a 27-0 lead in the 1st half and the Patriots don’t have the firepower to overcome a deficit like that. This was a big weekend for the public as they usually like to take the favorites and it especially paid off in this game. Final Score: 47-17
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6)
After the Bengals had taken a 10-point lead with 6:46 left in the game the Raiders were driving but stalled at the 10-yard line. The Raiders decided to kick the field goal instead of going for it on 4th and 3. This one decision had a major impact on the handicappers. If they had gone for it and scored, they would have covered the spread and put the game over the total. But the Raiders still were able to get the ball back with 1:51 left to play. The Raiders got all the way to the 9-yard line when Derek Carr threw an interception which ended the game.
DIVISIONAL ROUND PICKS
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Derrick Henry will be making his grand return to the Titans backfield. I am going to lay the points in this one. The Titans have been led by their defense which will be able to limit the Bengals big play ability. They are 6th in points allowed and 10th in total defense but with Henry back it will keep their defense fresh and the Bengals explosive offense off the field.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-6)
The Packers have been pretty dominate all season with a 13-4 record straight up and 12-5 ATS with 8 of those wins coming by a touchdown or more. Though the 49ers got a big upset on the Cowboys they made a ton of mistakes that let the Cowboys back in the game coming down to the last play. I believe the Packers will be able to take an early lead which will force Jimmy G to throw the ball which will lead to mistakes as he did last week which he threw an interception that almost led to a Cowboys comeback. I am going to lay the points with the Packers because I don’t trust the 49ers offense. The 49ers have only managed to score 23 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games.
Philadelphia Eagles (+8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As a 7-point underdog in Week 6, the Eagles hit the backdoor cover in a 22-28 loss to the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. The Bucs have injuries in their offensive weapons including the departure of Antonio Brown. Though the Eagles are limited through the air, their college-style run offense will be hard to prepare for and deal with because it is not the typical offense you see all the time. I think this game might look like last year’s wildcard matchup of Bucs and Washington where the Bucs had a tough close game against Heinicke. I believe it will be the same in this game a much closer game than many people think it will be and the Eagles will cover the spread but still probably lose because it is still Tom Brady we’re talking about.
Los Angeles Rams (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cowboys beat up on teams that are less talented than they are. I feel like this is the case here. Jimmy G is inferior to Dak as their defense and offensive weapons do not compare to the Cowboys. The only advantage the 49ers will have is their run game but can be minimized if the Cowboys take an early lead on them which will make Jimmy G throw the ball more against the best turnover team in the league. Jimmy G is prone to making mistakes and I am betting he will do just that in this game. Don’t forget that the Cowboys are still at the top of the league when it comes to covering against the spread as they are 13-4 and 5-1 in their last 6 games.
Buffalo Bills (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills are ranked in the top 3 in points scored and points allowed. Bills have scored 30 plus points 10 times this season which will be able to outscore Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs high powered offense. I am taking the Bills plus the 2 points. I have not believed in this Chiefs team all season especially not their defense and Mahomes has been way to reckless with his throws this season. The Chiefs are known for slow starts and if they get behind in this one the Bills defense won’t let them back in this one. The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
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Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
