(The views expressed in this article are the views of the individual author and do not reflect the views of the Let’s Get Ready Network.)
Why is it that “the house always wins”? Well, that is because betting agencies stack the odds against you as the bettor and they also the cut they take called the Vig. Betting odds do not reflect actual probabilities of the possible outcomes. The average return on investment for bettors is less than betting on a coin flip at just 48%. You have to look at betting on sports as just like investing in the stock market. The bettor needs to make smart bets, mitigate losses, and look for arbitrage opportunities in market discrepancies. Arbitrage happens when different betting agencies have different odds for the same event and can guarantee a profit by betting both outcomes and getting a payout either way. Sometimes betting agencies will have slight differences in odds and if you can find these discrepancies you can take advantage of these arbitrage opportunities. One oddsmaker can have odds for a team to win and another oddsmaker can have odds for the opposite team to win so if you place a bet on both teams with the two different betting agencies you are guaranteed a profit. This also applies to betting win totals and division winners. Though there might not be any guarantees on how many games teams in the AFC West will win, I feel that there is much opportunity in betting this division as I have a positive outlook for every team in this division which will definitely reflect in the way I bet them. The Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos may feel that the odds are stacked against them with Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in the league, leading the division and AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. For the past 5 years, the Chiefs have dominated this division and that seems like it will continue as long as Mahomes is at the helm. Just like the gamblers betting on this division the other three teams will have to hope they made smart bets and applied sound strategies on their free-agent signings, trades, and draft picks in an effort to overtake the Chiefs as champions of the west.
The new emerging dynasty in the NFL was stopped short due to the aging GOAT Tom Brady in Super Bowl LV but it was less what he did and more what the Chiefs offensive line did not do which was block for Patrick Mahomes. After winning the Super Bowl the previous year, the Chiefs were on their way to back-to-back championships finishing the 2020 regular season with a 14-2 record and atop the of the AFC West. But after their offensive line was decimated with injuries and having a shaky defense that I thought was being covered up by the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes’ play, their season was ended by getting soundly beaten by the perpetual pass rush of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This offseason, the Chiefs have done much to fill in that gaping hole that is their offensive line by almost completely rebuilding it. They let go off T Eric Fisher, T Michell Shwartz, and G Kelechi Osemele. To replace those pieces, they signed 2nd team All-Pro (2019) Joe Thuney to a 5-year, $80 million deal, they brought 3-time Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long out of retirement, traded a 1st round pick to the Baltimore Ravens for 2-time Pro Bowl OT Orlando Brown Jr., and then in drafted the number 1 ranked center in the draft Creed Humphrey out of Oklahoma. With this total revamp of the offensive line, I don’t see Patrick Mahomes having to run for his life and make diving throws like he did in the Super Bowl. I think the Chiefs will be as explosive and solid as it has been for the last 3 years, but the question is have, they done enough on that shaky defense. They did not have any big free-agent signings on the defense but did draft LB Nick Bolton in the 2nd round but it may not matter the Chiefs offense will probably be good enough to cover up its flaws and will win as many games as they did last year. Their over/under win total is set at 12 with odds at over –130/ under +110. They are also the heavy favorites to win the division at –300. I think it’s a pretty certain bet to take the over in this case as long as Mahomes stays healthy. There might not be a ton of value laying $300 to win $100 but it is a safe bet to make.
I don’t know what to expect from the newly-hired Brandon Staley, formerly defensive coordinator of the L.A. Rams. This his first head coaching job at any level and he plans to take over the 7-9 L.A. Chargers which finished 3rd in the AFC West. He is inheriting the rookie of the year Justin Herbert who looked really impressive as he broke the rookie completions and touchdowns records. Staley will have to lead this team that was in a lot of close games that they couldn’t help but lose which is why Anthony Lynn is out and he is in. I may not know much about Staley but as Defensive Coordinator, the Rams had the number 1 defense in yards and scoring. Knowing that, I see this as an upgrade from Lynn which I think will help them from being on the end of the close games they couldn’t seem to pull out with a win. To help ensure the continued success of Justin Herbert, the Chargers went out and signed OL Matt Feiler, All-Pro (2020) center Corey Linsley, as well as 2-time pro bowl TE Jared Cook to replace Hunter Henry. On top of that, they draft one of the best if not the best offensive linemen in the draft Rashawn Slater out of Northwestern. The Chargers have done a lot to protect their rising star quarterback which seems to be the theme in this division when you have to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. With the over/under win total set at 9 wins and odds at over +105/under -125 I am feeling very optimistic that this new coach and their offseason moves can make this team into a winning one which is why I will take the over as I definitely believe they can get to at least 10 wins this season. They are tied for 2nd to win the division with odds at +600 which I think is pretty good value considering how heavily favorited the Chiefs are. I wouldn’t mind placing a bet on them to win the division there is a good chance the Chargers surprise some people this year and maybe the Chiefs have a slip-up.
It always seems like the Las Vegas Raiders make odd and questionable decisions. This has been going on since Al Davis was alive and running the team, and since his son Mark Davis has taken over, this trend has continued. Many analysts have questioned the 10-year deal given to head coach Jon Gruden straight out of retirement and the hiring of NFL Network analyst Mike Mayok as general manager. Together this duo has made decisions that many fans and football media go “huh”. Even before they moved to Vegas, the Raiders liked to make big gambles in their personnel. They have showcased this yet again with their first-round draft pick OL Alex Leatherwood who was projected to go in round 2. But one of the decisions I did like was trading up in the second round for S Trevon Moehrig out of TCU to replace Jeff Heath in their secondary. They also made improvements to their defensive line by signing DE Yannick Ngakoue, DE Solomon Thomas, and DT Darius Stillls. They also looked to get Derek Carr some help with the signings of WR Willie Snead and WR John Brown. The Las Vegas Raiders have the worst odds to win the division at +1400 and their over/under win total is set at 8 wins with odds of over +115/ under –135. I am going off my gut feeling when placing my bet on the Raiders to hit the over. One of the major reasons is looking back on the first year of the Las Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights had a huge home-ice advantage as the T-Mobile Arena was packed with fans who were extremely excited to finally get a professional sports team in their city. I was one of those fans who never watched hockey but was just so ready to represent the city I live in and support my city’s team. Due to the pandemic, the Las Vegas Raiders did not share that same rockin’ crowd as no fans were allowed in Allegiant Stadium for any of the Raiders’ home games. This year, the city is so ready to show out and pack that stadium and create an extremely tough environment for any opponent coming here, as well as being the major party city in the world might have an effect if players from opposing teams party a little too hard the night before the game. I think this will be a major advantage for the Raiders to win at least 9 games as it was for the Golden Knights getting them to the Stanley Cup Finals in their first year. As far as their chances to win the division, that’s a different story because I just think the Chargers and Chiefs are better teams and would not make that bet with those long odds.
There has been a whirlwind of speculation coming out of Denver going back before the draft and then on the day, it seemed very likely that Aaron Rodgers would be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos. Though the trade did not happen the drama between Aaron Rodgers’ unhappiness with the Green Bay Packers management continues and keeps the possibility of a trade to Denver alive. Denver Broncos have had success before bringing in an aging veteran quarterback when Peyton Manning got them to a Super Bowl and then won a ring with the defense leading the way. But their inability to draft and find a long-term solution at quarterback has led to their current quarterback woes. Drew Locke does not seem to be the answer in Denver as he is one of the worst quarterbacks statistically in the league. The Broncos do have a solid defense which will likely be even better with the additions they have made along with Von Miller being back and healthy. They signed CB Kyle Fuller and CB Ronald Darby as well as draft the best CB in the draft Patrick Surtain and S Caden Sterns which will vastly improve the secondary that was their weakness in their defense. With the loss of Philip Lindsay, they drafted RB Jevonte Williams in the second round. I believe that though Drew Locke will likely struggle, their defense will be good enough to get them some wins on their own just as they did in Peyton’s last year. The Broncos over/under win total is set 7.5 wins with odds at over +105/under -125 and the chances of winning are tied for 2nd with Chargers +600. If Aaron Rodgers does indeed get traded to Denver, then placing a bet with these odds on the over is significant value as well as taking them to win the division. You will see the odds shift drastically in favor of the Broncos in both aspects of win total and division odds. As time goes by, I feel more and more like Drew Locke will once again be the starter for the Broncos, so in that case, I will take the under and give them little to no chance of winning the division though I still think they will be a much better overall team than last year’s 5-11 team that had a WR start at quarterback for a game.
odds from William Hill Sportsbook
