(The views expressed in this article are the views of the individual author and do not reflect the views of the Let’s Get Ready Network.)
There are pros and cons to every type of sports betting. In betting over/under on win totals in the NFL some of the pros are that it’s simple to understand, it’s a more entertaining long-term investment than putting your money in the stock market, and there 32 teams to bet on and multiple lines to choose from. One of the cons is knowing when to place the bet as lines can fluctuate as many things can happen before the season starts such as injuries to a starting quarterback that will vastly shift the line for that teams win total or new additions to a team like the Tennessee Titans just trading for Julio Jones which can shift the line just a little bit. Another con is having your money tied up for a long period of time and having to wait until the end of the season to get a payout. This season will be the longest season as that will make betting win totals an even longer investment. The most important thing to have when betting is having as much information as you can but there is a lot of uncertainty with the AFC South. Whether it’s the drama with Deshaun Watson and his legal problems, Carson Wentz’s ability to stay healthy, or if Urban Meyer is able to make a seamless transition from coaching college to the pros, I feel like this is one of the tougher divisions to bet.
For 8 years the Indianapolis Colts were unable to put a good enough offensive line or roster around Andrew Luck which led to his early retirement. For the last two years, they have the offensive line and roster but not the quarterback as they have trotted out Jacoby Brissett and old man Philip Rivers out on the field which led them to a 7-9 and 11-5 record. The Colts’ latest endeavor at a franchise comes in the form of trading a 3rd and 2nd round pick for the oft-injured Carson Wentz. This is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL last year. Wentz was tied for most interceptions (15), 2nd worst comp pct. (57.4%) just above Drew Locke and 2nd worst in yards per attempt (6). Along with him being injured, I do not believe the Colts have fixed their QB issues. I think they gave up too much for him and don’t think they should have traded for him at all. I have never thought he was very good, based on the fact he too inaccurate because even in his best season he had a completion percentage of 60.2 which is not good in today’s NFL. This offseason the Colts added to a talented roster by drafting pass rusher Kwity Paye and signing T Eric Fisher in free agency but losing key figures in LT Anthony Castonzo, Rivers, Brissett, and Anthony Walker Jr. No matter what moves they have made or will make it all relies on Carson Wentz. I am betting hard that it will not turn out well in Indianapolis because of Wentz. Their win total is set at 10 wins with odds of over/under -110 and they are the favorites to win the division at +100 odds to be AFC South champs. I am without a doubt taking the under I have no faith in Wentz to lead this team anywhere and feel that the oddsmakers are vastly overrating the Colts at those odds with Wentz at quarterback.
To consistently have a winning season in the NFL is hard to do but in the last 5 years that is exactly what the Tennessee Titans have done. After going 9-7 for 4 straight years the Titans finish with an 11-5 record last season which led them to win the division. There was much speculation before, during, and after the draft of if, when, and where Julio Jones will be traded. The star receiver that has been dominant over the course of his career was just too much money for the Falcons which led them to trade him to the Titans for basically a second-round pick. This why knowing when to place your bet is important as that slightly shift their odds to win the division from +110 to +105. Their win total is set at 9.5 wins with odds of over+110/under -130. Will the Titans fall back into their 9-win ways or can they continue their success from last year and get back to an 11-win season or more? There is really good value in taking the over and still good value in their odds to win the division which why I will take the over heavily and bet them to win the division with ease. They add Janoris Jenkins and draft Caleb Farley to replace Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson as well as adding a pass rusher in Bud Dupree. I believe they have a good consistent team with two major weapons in A.J. Brown and Julio for Tannehill to become a more explosive offense which can take some pressure off Derrick Henry which their offense has heavily relied upon. I feel comfortable placing good money on the Titans this season.
In the history of the league, there have been several coaches who have made the transition from college to the NFL with some being major successes and others being a complete disaster. Hiring a college coach who has never coached the NFL is always a gamble because you don’t know if you are getting a Jimmy Johnson, Paul Brown, Pete Carroll, or a Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, Bobby Petrino. There are a couple of teams in the league with their gamble still pending but not looking too good as Matt Rhule and Kliff Kingsbury have yet to make the playoffs. The Jacksonville Jaguars have decided to place their bets on Urban Meyer a coach who has had success at all the schools he has coached but making that transition is has proven difficult for some. With a first-time head coach and rookie QB, it is hard to say whether these bets will show dividends this year. There will quite a learning curve for number 1 pick Trevor Lawerance and Urban Meyer but I feel the Jaguars have had a good offseason as the drafted fellow Clemson teammate and 1st round pick Travis Etienne, DB Tyson Campbell, and OT Walker to protect the #1 overall pick. In free agency, they signed CB Shaq Griffin, DT Jihad Ward, RB Carlos Hyde, and WR Marvin Jones. With a win total set at 6 wins and odds at over -120/ under +110, I am not sure how to bet them. With a rookie coach and QB, it doesn’t sound like they are going to win a lot of games but there have been examples where that has happened such as the ‘08 season where it happened in Atlanta and Baltimore with Ryan/Smith and Flacco/Harbaugh. I am going to go with that and pick the over even though I don’t have a concrete reason for that but in betting you just got to with your gut sometimes. They are 3rd to win the division at +1200 odds which I am not willing to put any money on.
In the wake of the firing of former head coach/GM Bill O’Brien, the Houston Texans were left with no 1st and 2nd round picks, no Deandre Hopkins, no JJ Watt, and likely no Deshaun Watson. In the last 10 years, the Texans have found success as they have made the playoffs 6 times in the span. But mismanagement starting with giving Bill O’Brien GM powers has led to the dysfunction of this franchise. The newly hired GM Nick Caserio and Head Coach David Culley have their work cut out for them this season as it seems that they don’t have a lot of talent to work with. As of today, there is no conclusion as to what will happen with Watson’s sexual assault accusation cases and the trade rumors have continued to come out. Whatever happens, it’s more likely than not that he is not going to be the quarterback of the Houston Texans. The quarterbacks that will be there are newly signed Tyrod Taylor and their 1st pick in the draft in the 3rd round QB Davis Mills. To go along with David Johnson in the backfield they signed Mark Ingram, Philip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead. They also added Terrance Mitchell and Vernon Hargreaves to the defensive backfield. None of these moves inspire me to think that this team will win many games this season. They went 4-12 and finished last in the division with Deshaun Watson in the starting lineup so what will be their record this season without him. The Texans have the shortest odds to have the worst record in the league at +250 as well as their over/under win total set at 5 wins with odds of over +110/ under –130. I see no hope in this team to even think about taking the over. I’m going hard on the under and at +2000 to win the division, I wouldn’t bet a penny on that happening.
odds from William Hill Sportsbook
