(The views expressed in this article are the views of the individual author and do not reflect the views of the Let’s Get Ready Network.)
Bill Parcells once said “you are what your record says you are.” In the 2021 season, there will be a 17-game schedule for the first time. This eliminates the .500 8-8 record which, in betting terms, would be considered a “push.” This is like putting a “hook” on point spread or total which is a half point to eliminate the possibility of a push. When betting totals if the teams total matches the line, which happens when the line is a whole number, the bettor will receive their wager back no matter if you took the over or the under. This season teams either have a winning season or a losing one and are either a good team or bad team unless you are in last year’s NFC East which Washington won with a losing record (I don’t know if that makes them good or bad). With the increase in games that shifts the odds of how many games a team will win. Another factor to think about win betting win totals this season is the extra home game that AFC teams get that NFC teams do not. Those 9 home games can be a major contributing factor to determine an over or under on amount wins or a push.
Over the last 20 years, the New England Patriots have dominated the AFC EAST until last year when Tom Brady left and the Buffalo Bills emerged as division champions behind the play of their MVP candidate QB Josh Allen. Buffalo dominated the division with 13-3 record and swept their division opponents 6-0. They re-signed key contributing players OL Daryl Williams & Jon Feliciano and LB Matt Milano while adding Emmanuel Sanders to go along with Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs, Matt Breida to bolster their run game, and Mitch Trubisky for some backup QB security. One thing they were lacking was a pass rush which they addressed in the draft by adding pass rushers Gregory Rousseau and Carlos “Boogie” Basham in the 1st and 2nd round respectively. They also are 23rd in strength of schedule in league based on their opponents’ winning percentage from the previous year. Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Bills over/under win total at 11 wins. The odds are –130 over/ +110 under. All these factors lead me to believe they can win as many or more games as they did in 2020 which means I am definitely betting the over in this case. Especially with the new 17-game season, it shifts a 13-3 season to a 14-3 season which leaves a nice 3 game cushion to hit that over. At –155, the Buffalo Bills are the favorite to win the division. To me this is a very likely bet. I would bet it right now before the number gets any bigger.
The fall from grace was hard for all of the New England area as the once mighty Patriots posted a mediocre 7-9 record and missed the playoffs for first time since 2008. The talent deprived team was a result of opt outs, bad team building from a coach/GM, and the giant hole left behind by the goat Tom Brady. This offseason the Pats have vigorously tried to remedy the lack of talent by signing numerous free agents such as TE Jonnu Smith/ Hunter Henry, WR Nelson Agholor/Kendrick Bourne and LB Matthew Judon to name a few. They also get back the returning opt out players in Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Bolden, and Donta Hightower. Their notable draft picks were QB Mac Jones and DT Christian Baramore both from Alabama. With the many moves made during this offseason it would seem there is some optimism, but the one main factor that drives everything is who will be the starting QB. I don’t have any faith in the health and reliability of one Cam Newton and certainly not impressed with Mac Jones as he was surrounded by unbelievable talent at Alabama along with the fact that no Alabama QBs have done anything in the NFL since Joe Namath. The New England Patriots over/under win total is 9 wins with odds at over –120/ under EV (expected value). I don’t believe they have done enough at the quarterback position to warrant me betting the over. I see the value with the even money bet and I will take the under here. The Patriots are at +350 to win the division which I think is a better bet than the other two underdogs in the division but not rushing to the casino to make that bet. Overall, they clearly have a much more talented team then they did last year that doesn’t mean it puts Ws in the win column if the guy leading the team isn’t better.
The over/under that I struggle with the most in the division is how to bet the Miami Dolphins. The most common type of line casinos set is called a “dime line” in which both lines are set at –110. This means they are able to get action both sides in which they profit 10 percent vig or cut they take from the gambler because each loser is paying $110 and each winner only gets a payout of $100 – the extra $10 is what they profit from. This is exactly the case for the Miami Dolphins win total odds which is set at 9 wins and both over/under -110. The collectively talented roster of the Dolphins led them to 10 wins but questions and indecision at quarterback held them out of the playoffs. Fitzmagic only lasted so long until it was Tua time until they went back to Fitzpatrick then back to Tua. I didn’t see much significance in free agency as they acquired Jacoby Brissett, Cethan Carter and Will Fuller. I did like their draft as they added WR Jaylen Waddle, DE Jalean Phillips, S Javon Holland and OL Liam Eichenberg. But the last time they were on the field they were being blown out by the bills 56-26 as Tua threw 3 INTs and even in Tua’s wins he was throwing for less than 300 yds and 1 or less TDS. The progression of Tua is what has me conflicted and lines are set the way are because they know there are people who have both positive outlook that he will be better and negative outlook that he will continue to struggle. I would suggest just to stay away from this bet all together. If I had to pick, I am taking the under but definitely not confident in that. The Dolphins come in 2nd with +325 odds to win the division. I don’t see much value there as I said before. I think the Pats have a better chance than they do.
It feels as though the New York Jets are perpetually in a rebuild with exceptions of a good season here and there. The main reason to constant struggle to be a relevant football team stems from trying to find a franchise quarterback. Here again we see the Jets taking a chance on high draft in Zach Wilson out of BYU taken 2nd overall. Along with him they also got a protector for him in OL Alijah Vera Tucker and weapon in WR Elijah Moore in the next two rounds. In free agency they acquired Carl Lawson, Corey Davis, Tevin Coleman, and Vinny Curry. These acquisitions come after a dismal 2-14 record and not even tanking hard enough to get the number 1 pick to get Trevor Lawrence which is one of the best quarterback prospects in years. The win total is set at 6.5 with odds at over +120 and under –140. I definitely think the Jets will win more than the 2 wins they did last year but I am not totally certain they can win 7 games. This is where the extra game comes into play and maybe they can get to 7. I feel like the public money will be on the under which is why it is the favorite, but I am going to fade the public and take a leap of faith in “Mormon Mahomes” Zach Wilson. I think there is decent value in the over that’s $120 for a $100 bet. They come in last to win the division at +2000. Hell at those odds I think it is worth it to throw $10 to win $200, most people find dumber ways throw away $10 anyways.
odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
