WEEK 7 RECAP
Week 7 Record: 3-2
Overall Record: 17-18
MY BEST PICK
New York Jets (+2) @ Denver Broncos
Final Score: New York 16-9
I picked the Jets even before the news came out that Russell Wilson would not play in this game. Wilson had not been playing well anyway so it may not have mattered who was starting. What I had faith in was the Jets’ defense and running game which, both showed up in this game. Even with Breece Hall getting just 4 carries he was able to leave his mark by rushing for 72 yards and a touchdown before he was lost for the season with an ACL tear. The rest of the game was a struggle to get through for both teams both defenses took advantage of the subpar quarterback play which led to a sloppy low scoring game. But I felt the wrong team was favored and I was proved to be right because the Jets are the better team.
MY WORST PICK
Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
Final Score: Chicago 33-17
I was really confident in the Patriots at home with how well they have been playing recently and how good Belichick is against young quarterbacks that this result would be the complete opposite. The Patriots started Mac Jones and after a rough start throwing an interception, they put in Bailey Zappe who was able to put up a couple of touchdown drives to get them within 3. It was a different story in the 2nd half as Zappe was completely ineffective. The Patriots didn’t score any points. The Pats’ defense gave up 243 yards on the ground 82 came from Justin Fields as he avoided pressures and was able to run for big chunks of yardage. He did just enough through the air and got the win. I definitely did not see this coming just another reason why I try to avoid big point spreads.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 7: 9-5
- Overall: 63-44-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 7: 7-7
- Overall: 46-61-1
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 7: 9-5
- Overall: 56-46-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 7: 7-7
- Overall: 52-56-1
OVER/UNDER
- Week 7: 7-7
- Overall: 42-65-1
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (+13, ML +315)
Final Score: Carolina 21-3
No one would assume that the team who just traded their best player, fired their coach, traded a starting WR, and were starting their 3rd string quarterback would win in outstanding fashion against Tom Brady and the Bucs especially not hold them to 3 points. This comes after the embarrassing loss to the Steelers. Whether it’s Brady getting old, his personal life being a mess, his head coach, or all the above the Bucs find themselves under .500 going into week 8. The Panthers were able to have a great day on the ground even without CMC as Foreman ran for 15 carries for 118 yards and Hubbard ran for 63 yards and a touchdown. Also, PJ Walker had a nice game as he threw for 2 touchdowns. The Panthers’ defense shut down the Bucs’ run game and frustrated Brady throughout the game as they weren’t able to get anything going on offense. The Bucs still find themselves atop of the division and the Panthers are just one game back at 2-5.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Final Score: Cincinnati 35-17
Right from the start of the game, the Bengals had it going on offense as Joe Burrow connected on a 60-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Boyd just 2 minutes into the game. The onslaught continued on from there as the Bengals were up 28-7 in the 1st half. The Falcons started to come back just before halftime as they scored 10 points with less than a minute left in the half. Then in the 2nd half, the Bengals’ defense was able to completely shut down the Falcons’ offense. Burrow had a hell of a game throwing for 34/42 481 yards and 3 touchdowns. They also had 2 receivers with more than 100 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Bengals seem to be getting hot as they have won 4 out of their last 5 games. The Falcons finally got their first loss against the spread the same week I decided to pick them.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
New York Giants (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Final Score: New York 23-17
If took the Jaguars on the MoneyLine bettor you were just a yard away from cashing in on that bet. That would leave anybody to guzzle down a bottle of Pepto Bismol as it would make you sick to your stomach or Jack Daniels to get the bad taste out of your mouth. The Jags were up 17-13 going into the 4th quarter with the ball on the Giants’ 20-yard line and they get stopped on 4th down and they turn it over on downs. They came up with no points on the long drive but even with a minute left in the game, the Jags drove down the field with a chance to win the game. They completed a pass from the 17-yard line but got just 16 of the yards needed for the touchdown to take the lead.
WEEK 8 PICKS
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Detroit Lions
Tua had a nice start to the game last week against the Steelers coming off his absence due to his concussion problems but the 2nd half was a bit of a struggle for him. I think he will be better this week in his 2nd game back building off the win against the Steelers. The Lions have been terrible on defense we all know that. In their last 2 games, they only scored 6 points on offense which has also been bad recently. Goff was sacked 5 times and threw 2 picks last week against the Cowboys. I think the Dolphins’ defense is good enough to give this struggling Lions offense some trouble. There are just too many weapons on the Dolphins’ offense for a really bad Lions defense to handle.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The Vikings seemed to be rolling through the first 7 weeks of the season with their only loss coming against the undefeated Eagles. Kirk Cousins has got this offense playing well scoring over 20 points in 5 out of their first 6 games. That’s not good for a Cardinals defense that just let Andy Dalton throw for 4 touchdowns and put up 34 points on them. The Vikings have had an extra week to prepare coming off the bye. I still believe there is some friction between Kingsbury and Murray and will have some problems once again.
New York Giants (+3) @ Seattle Seahawks
I am going to keep rolling the dice on the New York Giants until they show me otherwise. They have been getting really lucky in these games being down in every game but somehow they manage to come back and win in all but 1 game. The Giants will be able to run all over the Seahawks with Saquon as the Seahawks are the 2nd worst rushing defense in the league. The Seahawks and Geno Smith have been the surprise of the league but I think they will run into some big trouble with New York as they are ranked 8th in passing defense. The Giants have an excellent record ATS 6-1 same as their actual record as they continually get undervalued by the oddsmakers.
Washington Commanders (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are making a major switch at quarterback as they will start 2nd-year quarterback out of Texas Sam Ehlinger 7 weeks into the season. I don’t feel good about any young quarterback making his first start of his career mid-way through the season. I feel like the Commanders got some juice from their upset win against the Packers by having their own QB change with Taylor Heinicke. I think he will be able to carry that momentum into this matchup against the Colts. The Colts have just not been able to get Johnathan Taylor going this season. Washington held the Packers to just 38 yards rushing last week. The Colts are just 3-6 in their last 9 games against the spread.
San Francisco 49ers (-1) @ Los Angeles Rams
Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay in these regular season matchups in this divisional rivalry. In the last 10 matchups between the 49ers and Rams, the Niners are 7-3. The Rams have been struggling on offense as Stafford has thrown more picks than touchdowns this season. Also, they virtually have no run game to speak of. The Rams have scored just 10 points or less in half of their games. That is not good when you are going up against a 49ers defense that is number 2 in scoring, passing, and rushing defense. The 49ers have had some struggles as well in their last couple of games but a lot of that is due to injuries. The 49ers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games and the Rams are just 2-6 last 8 games.
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