WEEK 6 RECAP
Week 6 Record: 2-3
Overall Record: 14-16
MY BEST PICK
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (+5.5)
Final Score: New York 24-20
The New York Giants continue to have luck on their side as another set of lucky events gave them the win. The Giants are down in every game and somehow their opponent ends up falling apart in the end. The major reason for the Giant success is their head coach Brian Daboll who has made the adjustments to lead his team to this comeback. I thought the Giants would keep it close but thought they would lose by a field goal. But Lamar Jackson had a really bad 4th quarter making a terrible decision in throwing the interception and then just getting stripped sacked on the very next drive. The Giants continue to get it done with a lack of weapons and we’ll see if they can continue to win like this but it seems in the meantime they will continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers.
MY WORST PICK
Dallas Cowboys (+6) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Final Score: Philadelphia 26-17
I thought with how well the Cowboys’ defense has been playing that there would be no way that they wouldn’t be able to cover the spread even if they lost. Cooper Rush made the mistakes he avoided making for the 4 games throwing 3 picks and putting the defense in bad spots that they were just not able to overcome. Sirianni did a good job in scheming up their offense to exploit the weakness in the Cowboys’ defense using the RPO to isolate Micah Parsons and make him make a decision to go after the quarterback or the receiver. The Cowboys still could have pushed if Brett Maher was able to kick a 60-yard field goal toward the end of the game. But with Dak coming back I think they will be a better bet going forward
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 6: 7-7
- Overall: 54-39-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 6: 6-8
- Overall: 39-54-1
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 6: 8-6
- Overall: 49-39-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 6: 7-7
- Overall: 45-49-1
OVER/UNDER
- Week 6: 3-11
- Overall: 35-58-1
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5, ML +355)
Final Score: Pittsburgh 20-18
Guess who came into the game late in the third quarter in this game. Yes, Mitchell Trubisky came in and led a touchdown drive to go up 8 points in the 4th quarter. He went 9/12 144 yards and 1 touchdown after Kenny Pickett was struggling to get yards but just staying ahead of the Bucs. Tom Brady continued his problems both on and off the field by attending Kraft’s wedding before the game. He was shown yelling at his line as the frustration mounted as they couldn’t score points on a Steelers defense who were missing key players such as Watt and Fitzpatrick among others. I think many bettors thought this would be a cakewalk for the Bucs considering the Steelers were coming off 4 straight losses. This is another example of a team who gets embarrassed one week then the next week turning it around and getting the win.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-2)
Final Score: Indianapolis 34-27
Considering all the unders hitting, I didn’t think that Jags/Colts would be one of the higher-scoring games. This was especially surprising after the Colts scored 12 points against the Broncos on that terrible Thursday night game that even went into overtime. Not to mention the Colts were shut out the last time they played the Jags. Matt Ryan definitely turned around this Colts offense throwing for 42/58 389 yards 3 touchdowns. He had to put this game on his shoulders considering they were once again without running back Johnathan Taylor. This could have been considered for the bad beat of the week as the Jags were up 1 all they need to do is hold the Colts to a field goal and they can either cover or push depending on if you had them +2.5 or +2 but they allow a 32-yard pass to Pierce with just 17 seconds left on the clock. As someone who took the Jags with the points that one hurt.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints (+3)
Final Score: Cincinnati 30-26
With an opportunity to win the starting job for the rest of the season, Andy Dalton had a chance down 4 points with a minute and a half left in the game to go down and win the game and was unable to. The Saints were up by 2 points with just 2 minutes left in the game. The Saints as a home underdog just need to hold Joe Burrow and the Bengals from scoring. But in just 1 play Joe Burrow hits Jamarr Chase for a 60-yard pass to go up 4 points which had them cover the spread by 1 point.
WEEK 7 PICKS
Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Falcons are both undefeated against the spread and coming off an upset victory over the 49ers as a 3-point underdog at home. I am going to roll with the Falcons as they continue their 6-0 streak against the spread. Their running game will keep this game within range or even be the reason why they win. They have run for 150 yards or more in 5 out of their 6 games this season. The Bengals are coming off a narrow victory against the Saints where their defense gave up 26 points to an Andy Dalton-led offense. A big reason for their struggles on defense was the Saints running game rushing for 228 yards. They had some problems with Taysom hill running and Mariota can do the same thing as well. With 6 points on the road, I like the Falcons to go 7-0 ATS this season.
New York Giants (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This is another example of a team being undervalued by the oddsmakers just like the Falcons. The Giants also have a great record against the Spread at 5-1 same as their actual record. The Giants just keep finding ways to win their game and the opposite can be said for the Jaguars. I keep betting on the Jags and continuously getting disappointed every week. Now finally I am going to pick against them this time as they are just 2-4 ATS this season. The Giants have the 2nd best rushing attack in the league. Saquon Barkley will run on this Jag defense. Daboll is getting this team in a position to win in these close games by not asking too much from his quarterback and making adjustments when they get down in games. The Jaguars are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games and the Giants are the better team here and still getting 3 points.
New York Jets (+2) @ Denver Broncos
The other team in New York has also been surprising people and the oddsmakers as they are similarly getting disrespected. The oddsmakers clearly don’t think much of either New York team’s record as they are getting 2 points against a struggling Broncos team who has lost 3 straight games. The Broncos’ offense is a mess as Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett have been a complete disappointment. The Broncos have failed to score 20 points in 5 out of their 6 games. This will be tough for the Broncos as Robert Salah has this Jets defense playing well as they are 12th in both passing and rushing defense. They get after the quarterback and that’s bad news for Russell Wilson who holds on to the ball and seems reluctant to get out of the pocket. Similar to the Giants the Jets are not asking much from their quarterback Zach Wilson as they rely on Breece Hall and their running game and that is a winning formula for them. They are 4-2 ATS this season and the Broncos are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-2)
I am not going to all of a sudden change my mind about the Colts after their win against the Jags just like I didn’t after their big win against the Chiefs. The next week after that win they lost to these same Tennessee Titans and I feel this very recent history will repeat itself. I think the Colts are closer to the team that go shut out by the Jags and scored just 12 points against the Broncos. The Titans are coming off a bye week having an extra week of preparation for a team they just played. Before the Titans’ bye, they were getting on track with 3 straight wins with Henry going over 100 yards in the last 2 games. The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Titans.
Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
The Patriots seem to be on a roll with their 3rd string rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe winning their last 2 games by a margin of 67-15. Bill Belichick has the defense flying around by allowing just 15 points in the last 2 games. Zappe also had a chance to beat the Packers in overtime as well. Though this is a big point spread I don’t think it will be a problem for the Patriots considering their margin of victory against these inferior teams. Belichick has a great record against young quarterbacks. Justin Fields is not a good quarterback as he has struggled all season throwing more picks than touchdowns. He has no offensive line and no weapons to throw to, The Bears are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games so I feel the Patriots will win in a blowout.
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