WEEK 3 RECAP
Week 3 Record: 2-3
Overall Record: 6-9
MY BEST PICK
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Final Score: Tennessee 24-22
I was definitely playing the trends on this one which worked well in this case. The Titans were at home and an underdog which hits both elements that seem to be hitting in the first 3 weeks of the season. I was surprised to see the Titans getting points at home considering these were both winless teams going into this matchup. I think the key for the Titans was to get Henry back on track and that’s what they focused on during this game. He didn’t have a great game that he is accustomed to having rushing-wise. He went for just 85 yards rushing but he made good contributions in the passing game catching 5 balls for 58 yards. The Raiders are now the 0-3 team in the league as they continue to find ways to blow games.
MY WORST PICK
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
Final Score: Indianapolis 20-17
This was a complete shock for me as I think it was for most people who tuned in for this game or who just saw the final score while watching the highlights. I thought the Chiefs would beat down this bad Colts team considering how well they have played in the first couple of games and have a having the mini bye that comes with playing on Thursday night football. Patrick Mahomes was inaccurate – 20/35, 262 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. He was visibly frustrated as he was walking to the locker room arguing with his offensive coordinator. The Chiefs could have taken a 6-point lead but made a bad decision to go for a fake field goal which would have made me feel a lot better if they would have just kicked the damn field goal. Credit to Matt Ryan, I have been ragging on him a lot but he got his offense to make plays when they needed to the most. Another contributing factor was bad kicking as their normal place kicker is injured and the replacement missed a field goal and an extra point. But regardless it was just a plain old bad pick.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 3: 7-9
- Overall: 26-21-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 3: 6-10
- Overall: 19-28-1
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 3: 8-8
- Overall: 25-22-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 3: 7-9
- Overall: 25-22-1
OVER/UNDER
- Week 3: 7-9
- Overall: 17-30-1
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5, ML +280) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Final Score: Jacksonville 38-10
What a dominant win for a heavy underdog in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence looked great on Sunday throwing for 3 touchdowns against a Chargers team that everyone was in love with in the offseason. Obviously, the Chargers are one of the most injured teams in the league starting at the top with their quarterback Justin Herbert dealing with an injury. James Robinson ran for over 100 yards contributing to a fantastic road win going across the country. This loss adds to the concerns I had about head coach Brandon Staley as I thought he wasn’t right for this team and the reason they didn’t make the playoffs and the reason I picked them to finish last in the division.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) @ Washington Commanders
Final Score: Philadelphia 24-8
The Eagles were on the road as a 6-point favorite in a tough divisional matchup and they still dominated the Commanders to cover the spread. The Eagles and quarterback Jalen Hurts continue their early success as he threw for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is trying to prove he is more of a passer as the Eagles only ran for 72 yards in the game. He was hitting D.Smith all game long for 8 catches 169 yards and 1 touchdown. I thought the Commanders would put up more of a fight beating a decent Jags team and fighting back against the Lions. But Carson Wentz was hammered all game taking 9 sacks. The constant pressure led to 18 incompletions while they never got their run game going and were unable to stop Hurts on the other side of the ball.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Houston Texans (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears
Final Score: Chicago 23-20
If you took the Texans and the points, you felt good about your chances after they felt good about your chance after they took a 17-3 lead in the third quarter. Even with the score tied at 20-20, you felt ok. The Texans had the ball with 1:42 left in the game and all they need to do is drive down the field and kick a field goal. Even if they don’t, they still have a chance in overtime but on 3rd and 1 on their own 26, Davis Mills gets picked off on a check down to the running back by a linebacker. After that, the Bears just ran the time down and kicked the game-winning field to win the game which covers the spread by just a half point.
WEEK 4 PICKS
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Here is a big revenge game for Doug Pederson coaching against his former team he won a super bowl with. Everyone seems to be all on the Eagles’ early success. I’m not as sold as everyone else is. Their defense looks great despite giving up 35 points to the Lions but since then just 15 total. Though their offense is explosive in the 1st half and they take big leads right away they don’t do anything in the 2nd half. They have scored zero points in the last 2 games in the 2nd half. I think if the Jags can get the early lead on them then that will throw them off their game. The Jags have played well in all 3 of this game even in their week 1 loss to the Commanders. They have allowed just 10 points in their last 2 games while Trevor Lawrence seems to be getting better each week putting up 38 points and 3 touchdowns on the Chargers this past week. I like getting the points ins this one with the Jags seemingly on the right track. The Eagles are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals tried all they could against the Rams throwing 58 times but were not able to get it done. But their defense has played pretty well since the 2nd half of the Raiders game only allowing 23 points since then. They did a good job on Stafford and Kupp as Stafford threw zero touchdowns and Kupp only had 4 catches for 44 yards. Despite winning last week against the Saints the Panthers still have problems in the passing game. Baker Mayfield still does not have it figured out yet and has virtually no chemistry with his receivers as he completed less than 50% of his passes. They pretty much won the game because of their defense and Jameis Winston being Jameis Winston throwing 2 picks in the game. I think the Cards are still a decent team despite their record and I just don’t like what I have seen from the Panthers. Carolina is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and 1-7 in their last 8 home games.
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons (+2)
This seems to be a good matchup with 2 very similar teams. They both have average quarterbacks that do enough to win the game which both Brissett and Mariota did this past week. They both rely on their running game to carry the load to win games. Especially Atlanta in which Cordarrelle Patterson ran for 141 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. The Falcons finally got Kyle Pitts involved as he was the leading receiver in the game. I do like taking home underdogs and I am going to keep with the trend of underdogs hitting in the majority of games so far this season. The Falcons are a perfect 3-0 ATS.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
I am going heavy on the dogs this week and this pick is just another example of that. The Colts seem to have problems with their division. I’m not going to take the Colts’ big win against the Chiefs and think all their problems are solved. They tied the winless Texans and got shut out by the Jaguars. Johnathan Taylor only had a 3.4 avg. For 71 yards. I believe they won from a few big plays and miscues by the Chiefs. The Titans should have 1 more win if it wasn’t for that Giants game, they missed a field goal. I feel they have a well-coached team that will build off their win against the Raiders. Derrick Henry got some confidence from this past week. After a good week, the Colts will fall back to what they are which is not very good. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the Titans are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the Colts.
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers (-10)
This is the only favorite I am taking this week. Yes, it is a big point spread but I feel pretty confident that the Packers will be able to put it on the Pats and cover it. Rodgers did enough to get the win against a very good Bucs defense. Romeo Doubs seemed to breakout this past week with 8 receptions 73 yards and 1 touchdown. I think they will build on the newfound chemistry. The Patriots will be without starting quarterback Mac Jones and they will go with Brian Hoyer. They are coming off a game against the Ravens in which they gave up 37 points. Rodgers will be able to take advantage after that performance. All the Pats’ touchdowns were on the ground and the Packers did a good job holding Fournette to just 35 yards. The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and Green Bay is 14-6 in their last 20 games.
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