WEEK 2 RECAP
Week 2 Record: 2-3
Overall Record: 4-6
MY BEST PICK
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
Final Score: Jacksonville 24-0
I have been right on the Colts so far in the young NFL season. I’ve been saying all along that they were not going to be very good with old-ass Matt Ryan as their QB. This is why I was so confident in this pick knowing that the Jaguars have been dominating this rivalry. I jumped all over the Jags getting points at home against a bad Colts team. Matt Ryan played awful and threw 3 picks. They gave Johnathan Taylor the ball only 9 times from 54 yards. Trevor Lawrence had one of the best games in his career going 25/30 275 yards and 2 TDs. The run game helped him out by rushing the ball 37 times as the Jaguars shut the Colts out for the 3rd time since 2017.
MY WORST PICK
Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions
Final Score: Detroit 36-27
Definitely did not see this one coming at all. I thought after a tough battle with the Jags who are a better team than they were last year that the Commanders would be able to do the same with the Lions and keep this game close enough to cover the spread. The Lions go up 22-0 at halftime and I thought it was hopeless at that point. The hope started to return when they got within 8 points but the Lions dashed all hope with the 4th touchdown pass from Jared Goff. This proves how good the Lions are by keeping it close with the Eagles who look really good right now and then overwhelming the Commanders and holding on to their lead as they started to come back.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 2: 9-7
- Overall: 19-12-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 2: 5-10-1
- Overall: 13-18-1
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 2: 11-5
- Overall: 17-14-1
- Against the Spread
- Week 2: 8-7-1
- Overall: 18-13-1
OVER/UNDER
- Week 2: 5-10-1
- Overall: 10-21-1
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, ML +285) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Final Score: Dallas 20-17
I could not be happier with this result though I did not bet on my team myself they came out and got an early 14-3 lead on the Bengals. The Cowboys’ defense was relentless sacking Joe Burrow 6 times and forcing the Bengals to kick field goals instead of touchdowns until they tied it up. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to a game-winning drive to get in range for the game-winning field goal. This came after not scoring the entire 2nd half up until that point. Nobody gave the Cowboys a chance after losing Dak Prescott and how bad the offense looked in week 1 against the Buccaneers but it was the Cowboys’ defense that proved that they can carry this team to a victory.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Buffalo Bills (-10) vs Tennessee Titans
Final Score: Buffalo 41-7
Though this was a large point spread, I did say last week that this was a good bet because when the Bills win they blow out their opponent. Therefore, the Bills won and blew out the Titans. They came off a dominant win over the Super Bowl Champs so there wasn’t any question that the Super Bowl favorites can beat down the Titans at home against a team who just lost to the Giants. Josh Allen looked as though he was toying with the Titans’ defense as he threw 4 TDs 3 of which went to Stefon Diggs who had 12 catches for 148 yards. The Bills look like they are a good bet going forward even if they stumble 1 week, they can probably bounce back real quit so keep betting on this team.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)
Final Score: Los Angeles 31-27
If you were on the Rams laying the points, you felt great about your chances midway through the 3rd quarter. The Rams were up 28-3, the same score as Atlanta was in the Super Bowl vs the Pats when they made the incredible comeback. This game felt a little similar to that as the Falcons started to fight their way back into the game. A series of unfortunate events in the 4th quarter led to the backdoor cover as it went touchdown, block punt touchdown, and fumble, all of which led to Atlanta almost making the comeback but still covering the spread which makes it a very bad beat.
WEEK 3 PICKS
Detroit Lions (+6) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings just got their ass beat by the same Eagles team that the Lions scored 35 points against and lost by a field goal. Jared Goff’s connection with St. Brown, who got 9 receptions for 116 yards and 2 TDs last week, will be too much for the Vikings to handle. The Lions have scored 35 and 36 points in the first two games of the season. I feel 6 points is a lot of points for a tough divisional matchup that has 2 teams that I think are pretty equal. I especially think they are comparable in talent offensively. The Lions are always a team that will keep it close even whether they win or lose. The Lions are 5-1 in their last 6 games ATS. The Vikings are 7-13 ATS against NFC opponents in their last 20 matchups.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (+4.5)
As a heavy favorite against a beat-up Cowboys team playing without Dak Prescott got upset by Cooper Rush. The Bengals have no answers for their dysfunctional offensive line. They have allowed Joe Burrow to be sacked 13 times in 2 games. The Bengals have only put up 17 and 20 points in their first 2 games. The Jets put up 31 on a pretty good Browns defense as Joe Flacco threw for 4 TDs. If Cooper Rush can have success against the Bengals’ defense then that gives me confidence that Flacco can do the same. The Jets may not have the same pass rush as the Steelers or the Cowboys but I believe their offensive line is just that bad that they will still be able to get after Burrow because I think it is not just the line but Burrow holds on the ball too long. The New York Jets are 4-2 in their last 6 games against the spread and the Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
The Buccaneers have struggled on offense in their first two games but I don’t think Green Bay has that same kind of defense to stifle Tom Brady. After being blown out by the Vikings in week 1 they do what the Packers always do and beat the Bears which I don’t take much from. It doesn’t give me any more confidence that they are back on track. Both teams have issues at receiver but Tampa has a much better defense. Aaron Rodgers will have a tough time getting the ball to his guys that he has yet to show chemistry with. If the Bucs can get Fournette going as he did in week 1 that will give Tom Brady the opportunity to do what he does best. The Packers are 2-5 in their last 7 games and the Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts
As I previously mentioned I have been saying that Matt Ryan’s washed-up ass wasn’t going to be successful this season. He threw 3 picks against the Jags as they were shut out 24-0. The Colts can’t even protect him as he got sacked 5 times. If the Chiefs stop Johnathan Taylor like the Jags did then the Colts will virtually have no offense. The Chiefs will be coming off 10 days of rest after their hard-fought comeback on Thursday night. The Chiefs blew out the Cards in week 1 so I feel they can definitely do that to a bad Colts team. Both top receivers and their best defensive player are all questionable for the Colts on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes will go off in this game as he builds even more repour with his new receivers. The Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and the Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Going with the trends of home teams and underdogs against the spread both of which have good records I will be taking the Titans. I always love taking a home underdog, especially against a 0-2 team like the Raiders. The Titans should have a win if it wasn’t for a missed field goal against the Giants. Then like most teams, they got blown out by the Bills. I like a team coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football. I think head coach Mike Vrabel is a good coach and will get his team ready to go after a loss like that. The Raiders have had 2 tough losses, especially last week blowing a 20-point lead to the Cardinals. Las Vegas is 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games.
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