Finally, football is back and that means it’s betting season. After year one of these articles, I can take what I learned and be even better this year. I started off pretty hot last year while going on a streak of winning weeks but cooled off in the middle but finished off with a good playoff record including going a perfect 5 for 5 on my Super Bowl bets. We start off the season with a sort of unusual week 1 as there are 10 games that feature a Road Favorite. This is the most home dogs in one week since 1978. It seems home-field advantage is not to be a factor this week. This week also features a few revenge games like Baker and Russ playing their former teams as well as a rematch of last year’s week 1 matchup between the Cowboys and Bucs. Favorites were 4-12 ATS in week 1 last year. There are 7 games with point spreads of 3 points or less with the biggest point spread being 7 points. I hope to start the year off right with a winning week and hope the betting gods favor us for the rest of the season.
WEEK 1 PICKS
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
By getting to the Super Bowl the Bengals will be overvalued at least at the start of the season and we get a clear idea of what they are this year. They were undervalued last year having one of the best ATS records in the league which is why I picked them a lot last year. The Steelers have a good passing defense as they were 10th in pass yards allowed which should be able to somewhat contain those WRs in Cincinnati. TJ Watt and the Steelers pass rush will challenge that rebuilt offensive line of the Bengals with new defensive coordinator Brian Flores calling the defense. I don’t think the Bengals are world beaters just because they are the AFC champs, they got hot through the playoffs with some lucky breaks but they lost to teams such as the Bears and Jets last year. Trubisky will be much more mobile than old Ben Rothlisberger was so he will be able to extend the plays if the Steelers still experience problems with their offensive line. He will have some good weapons to do this with Harris, Claypool, Johnson, and Pickens helping him out. The Bengals obviously have overwhelming talent on the offense and will ultimately win this game just not by more than 6 points, I feel comfortable taking nearly a touchdown in a tough divisional matchup such as this. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 14-6 as a divisional road dog.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (+3.5)
The Lions have been consistently competitive all last season having a lot of close games despite the poor record last season. I think the Eagles are way more hype than substance with everyone picking them to win the division or be a dark horse in the NFC because of the moves they made in the offseason. All that will mean absolutely nothing as the rest of the NFL teams have a full season of tape on Jalen Hurts as the Bucs did in the playoff game in which they mud-stomped the Eagles. I do not think he is a very good quarterback they ran the ball most of the time to utilize what he does well which is run not throw because they know themselves that he can’t throw. The Lions are an improving football team with some good talent on the offensive side of the ball and a solid quarterback in Jared Goff. The Lions’ weakness is their defense the number 2 overall pick will help in this regard getting pressure on Hurts and being able to stop that run game they rely on. The Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 against the NFC and 2-5 in the last 7 ATS against Detroit.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals (+6)
Every year the Cardinals seem to start off hot and cool off towards the end of the season which happened last year as is head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s reputation. I think that trend will continue in this week 1 matchup against the Chiefs. Though the Cards are missing Deandre Hopkins due to suspension they did trade for Marquise Brown to fill the void along with Rondale Moore and AJ Green. Kyler Murray and company will be going up against the Chiefs’ defense that is still mediocre and that has lost a key piece in Tyrann Mathieu in the offseason. The Chiefs had some struggles early on in the season last year including Patrick Mahomes was not at his best. They were very overvalued in terms of the point spread last year which is why I was betting against them and I think it is continuing here because the Cardinals are way too good a football team to be getting 6 points at home especially when they traded away Mahomes number one WR in Tyreek Hill. The early struggles last year are shown in the fact they went 1-4 ATS in the month of September.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)
This spread is insulting to me the Cowboys should not be a 2.5-point underdog at home. Both teams are coming in with similarities both have banged-up offensive lines and WRs. Tom Brady has been away from his team right in the middle of training camp because he is having problems at home so I don’t know where his mental state is. He has got that chemistry with his new WRs Julio Jones and Russell Gage. Pressure will come from the interior which is worse for Brady because he is 45 and not very mobile to be able to step up in the pocket or get away from the rush on the outside. The position with the most depth on the Cowboys is their defensive line with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence the charge that will assault Brady. Dak is fully healthy and not coming off an injury like he was last year in a game we should have won if it wasn’t for a missed field goal and a no-call offensive pass interference. Dak won’t be hesitant to take off and run if the line breaks down as he was last year due to the ankle injury. This time around will be different because the Cowboys will be at home and both teams turned the game into a passing fest. With a healthy Zeke and Pollard and the offensive line being better run blockers than pass blockers Dallas will have to rely on them to grind out this game and keep Brady off the field. For that reason, I think it will be more low scoring than last year’s bout. Another thing that will help the Cowboys’ offense is Kavonte Turpin in the return game to get them good field position and maybe take one back to the house. I think if the Cowboys stop a fat Leonard Fournette, they can force them to pass and let Micah and company get after Brady. The Cowboys were also the best team against the spread with a record of 13-5.
Denver Broncos (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
This is one of the previously mentioned revenge games that has Russell Wilson going back to Seattle and the 12th man to take on his former team the Seahawks with which he won a Super Bowl. There was some conflict in the latter years of his time with Seattle that was brewing and ultimately leading to him being traded to the Broncos. Whether it was not letting Russ cook or not supporting him with a good offensive line the tension will be high in this game. Any frustration Russ had with the Seahawks he will take it all out on Monday Night Football. Seattle has no quarterback as they had a very lackluster quarterback competition in the preseason between Geno Smith and Drew Locke with Smith ultimately winning the job. They look like they are tanking the season to me with the situation at quarterback the way it is and next year being a very good QB class. This will just be the start of the tank job as I think Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos will stomp all over the Seahawks. All the Broncos needed last year was a legit quarterback as they had a good roster that featured a solid defense with some pass rush and secondary to compliment them. They have some nice weapons on offense with a trio of receivers and a duo of backs. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett and Wilson will mesh well quickly as he plans to center the offense around his strengths. Even though I am laying 6.5 points on the road this is one of my more confident picks of the week due to the gap in how good I think the Broncos are and how bad I think the Seahawks are.
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