WEEK 16 RECAP
Week 16 Record: 1-4
Overall Record: 38-39-3
MY BEST PICK
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ New England Patriots
Final Score: Cincinnati 22-18
My only win of the week and it looked like it was going to be an easy cash-in when the Bengals went up 22-0. Then the Bengals just started to make a ton of mistakes to allow the Patriots to slowly crawl back into the game. I was starting to sweat and was worried that I might go winless this week on the Patriots’ final drive but Mac Jones couldn’t get it done in the end which saved me from having one of the worst weeks of my gambling career.
MY WORST PICK
Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Final Score: Carolina 37-23
I did not see this one coming with how well the Lions were playing. Even though the Panthers had been playing better recently I didn’t see them running all over the Lions. They ran for 320 yards as a team Foreman with 165 yards and Hubbard had 125 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers completely shut down the Lions’ run game and the Lions were up 31-7. The Panthers still have a shot at a division title while the Lions will have to have some things fall their way if they want to make the playoffs.
FAVORITES
- Straight Up
- Week 16: 10-6
- Overall: 150-88-2
- Against the Spread
- Week 16: 8-8
- Overall: 101-131-8
HOME TEAMS
- Straight Up
- Week 16: 8-8
- Overall: 128-101-2
- Against the Spread
- Week 16: 8-8
- Overall: 104-133-2
OVER/UNDER
- Week 16: 6-10
- Overall: 104-134-2
BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers (+3.5, ML +165) @ Miami Dolphins
Final Score: Green Bay 26-20
The Dolphins have been up and down all year long with a winning streak, a losing streak, and now have lost 4 straight games with the defeat to the Packers who are holding onto their playoff hopes with this win. The Dolphins and Tua got off to a good start by going up 20-10 but then it started to go downhill from there. He was getting the ball to both Waddle and Hill pretty accurately with both going over 100 yards but it seems whenever he suffered the concussion that’s when his performance was affected as he threw 3 interceptions in the 2nd half. The Packers’ defense stepped up big time in the 2nd half by shutting the Dolphins out and causing 4 turnovers. Aaron Rodgers and the offense just did enough to get the job done to pull off the upset. The Packers are starting to get on track and the Dolphins seem to be completely derailing.
LARGEST COVER ATS
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears
Final Score: Buffalo 35-13
The Bears got an early lead 10-6 and I thought with the wind and the cold that it would affect the Bill offense. I thought the Bear could keep this up and keep it close with the Bills. The 2nd half was different, the Bills scored on the 1st drive and then scored again off a Bears fumble. The Biggest problem for the Bears was that Fields couldn’t get going on the ground as he only had 11 yards rushing. On the other side, the Bills were able to rush very well with Singletary with 106 yards and Cook with 99 yards and 254 and 3 touchdowns yards as a team. The Bears weren’t able to keep up like I thought they would which led to a 28-point victory for the Bills.
BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) @ Arizona Cardinals
Final Score: Tampa Bay 19-16
This one was personal for me as it was the lone game to ruin the 10-team teaser parlay that I had. It was extremely frustrating to watch Tom Brady throw 2 interceptions in the red zone where at least they could have got 2 field goals then they allowed the Cardinals to take a 10-point lead. So, it wasn’t just a bad beat for me it was a bad beat for those who had the Cards on the money line having a lead like that. The Cardinals turned the ball over twice and let the Bucs score twice to tie it up and take the game into overtime. The Cardinals got the ball first then let the Bucs go down and kick the game-winner leading to an all-around Bad Beat of the Week.
WEEK 17 BETS
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders (-1.5)
The Commanders may be coming off a bad loss to the 49ers but the 49ers are a really good team and they kept it close for a while. Though the Commanders have some questions at the quarterback position with Carson Wentz now starting I don’t think it will matter because the Browns do not have the offense to outscore the Commanders. Since Watson has been the starter, they have failed to score multiple touchdowns in a game. They are coming off a loss to the Saints in which Watson threw for less than 50% 135 yards zero touchdowns and a pick. The Commanders have a good rush defense that will be able to contain Chubb and Hunt. I believe the spread is small enough that they just need to win with the playoffs on the line for the Commanders and the Browns already eliminated.
Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a huge matchup to determine who will win the NFC South division. One team has been playing a lot better than the other. By getting their running game going with Foreman and Hubbard the Panthers have won 4 out of their last 6 games. The Bucs have lost 3 out of their last 5. Tom Brady has struggled all year with both age and injuries to the offense affecting his play. The Bucs have failed to score 20 points in 9 of their games. The Panthers have been really good against the spread the last 6 games going 5-1. The Bucs, on the other hand, have been terrible ATS all year going 3-11-1 and 0-5 in the last 5 games.
San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders
The 49ers with Brock Purdy have looked great so far. The Niners have scored 33 plus points in 3 out of 4 games. I believe he will be able to exploit the Raiders not so good passing defense especially last week against the Steelers. Derek Carr was 50% on completions had 174 yards 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Jacobs ran for less than 50 yards. They will now have to face the number 1 defense in the league that will definitely be able to get pressure on Carr. The 49ers have been awesome ATS 6-0 in the last 6 games and 10-5 for the season.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
I think the Vikings have played with fire one too many times this season and I think this is where they finally get burned. They needed a 61-yard field goal to beat the Giants last week despite putting up huge numbers in the passing game. The Packers are on a roll winning 3 straight games. This is due to their defense playing better where they have held the opponents to 20 points or less in each of those games. If Aaron Rodgers is going to get his 1st 300-yard game of the season this is the game to do it as the Vikings are the worst passing defense in the league. The Vikings are not good ATS 2-4 in their last 6 games. They are 6-8-1 overall and the Packers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5)
With a top-10 rush defense, I think what happened last week to the Bears won’t happen this week to the Bengals. That is the Bills running the football on the Bengals. I think the Bengals can force Josh Allen into a couple of mistakes that he seems to have often in these games. Joe Burrow and the Bengals will be too much for the Bills to handle. I do love a home dog and there is no better home dog than the best team ATS in the league with a 12-3 record overall and 7-0 in their last 7 games. Buffalo has been bad ATS with a 3-6 record in their last 9.
If you want a more in-depth look at this week’s picks, watch the YouTube video below.
Or listen on Apple Podcasts:
Caleb Ochoa
Caleb Ochoa is one of the co-hosts of Good Friends, Better Rivals and Betting the NFL on the Let’s Get Ready Network. He is a diehard Dallas Cowboys fan and can be found on Twitter @nflcaleb22.
