Best Bets for Week 16 of the 2022 NFL Season | Betting the NFL | LGRN

WEEK 15 RECAP

Week 15 Record: 3-2
Overall Record: 37-35-3

MY BEST PICK

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Final Score: Buffalo 32-29

The trend has not failed yet and continues to be proven true that big underdogs between two divisional opponents, especially between two winning teams, does not work out for the favorite. We were expecting a lot of snow in this one which might slow down the Dolphins’ offense that didn’t really happen as it didn’t start snowing until late in the fourth quarter. Both offenses were able to be explosive with both going over 400 yards of total offense. The Bills were able to overcome an 8-point deficit in the 4^th by Allen leading to 2 scoring drives to take the lead and ultimately win the game. The Bills may have wrapped up a playoff berth but the Dolphins were able to cover the spread and I was able to get the win.

MY WORST PICK

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Final Score: Jacksonville 40-34

I felt pretty confident that the Cowboys would come out and play well after a bad performance the previous week and they did do that in the first half but the defense completely collapsed in the 2^nd. It was 21-10 at the half and I’m thinking I got this game in the bag but the Jags started throwing at Kelvin Joseph and that led to 2 huge touchdowns before he got benched. Injuries in the secondary and not being able to get a pass rush allowed Trevor Lawrence to go off for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Jags also ran it well on the Cowboys’ defense with Etienne running for 103 yards. The Cowboys still had a chance to win it in overtime by stopping the Jags on the first drive. Dak put it right on Noah Brown who wasn’t able to catch it and the deflected off his arms going right into the defender’s hands who was able to take it back for a game-winning pick-six. This also is the bad beat category as the Cowboys had a 17-point lead in the third quarter and the defense just fell apart.

FAVORITES

• Straight Up
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Overall: 140-82-2
• Against the Spread
  • Week 15: 5-10-1
  • Overall: 93-123-8

HOME TEAMS

• Straight Up
  • Week 15: 9-7
  • Overall: 120-93-2
• Against the Spread
  • Week 15: 7-8-1
  • Overall: 96-125-3

OVER/UNDER

• Week 15: 8-8
• Overall: 98-124-2

BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK

New York Giants (+4.5, ML +185) @ Washington Commanders

Final Score: New York 20-12

I was very glad to be on the right side of this game this time after 4 games without a win the Giants get a huge one that makes an impact on their playoff hopes and their season as a whole. The Giants’ defense played well holding the Commanders to just 12 points especially Kayvon Thibodeaux who was the leading tackler and got a sack on Heinicke. They were also able to cause and recover fumbles which led to the Giants scoring off both those turnovers. Winning the turnover battle was a major difference from the first game. Saquon Barkley was able to get going a little after not playing well the last few weeks. The game still came down to the fourth down play on the Giants’ 6-yard line with 56 seconds left on the clock. The pass was incomplete it probably should have been pass interference and wasn’t called, allowing the Giants to win the game. 

LARGEST COVER ATS

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Score: Cincinnati 34-23

This was another game I had got right but it wasn’t without some sweating at the beginning of the game. The Bucs started out great with 17-0 lead in the first half but as we saw from the Vikings game no lead is safe. After getting such a great start they followed that up with a disastrous 2^nd half by getting the ball first and turning it over 5 straight times. It started with turnover on downs when the Bucs went for it on their own 26-yard line then went interception, fumble, fumble, and interception. The Bengals offense was stopped in the first half and with all the turnovers that led to short fields Burrow didn’t have a ton of yards but still threw 4 touchdowns. The Bengals extend their win streak to 6 as they are one of the hottest teams in the league right now.

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis Colts (ML +180) @ Minnesota Vikings

Final Score: Minnesota 39-36

Well, the good news is that if you bet the Colts and the points you covered the spread and were able to cash in. But if you took the Colts on the money line then unfortunately this was the worst beat of all time as it was the biggest comeback in NFL history. I couldn’t imagine what the odds were at halftime for live bets. A 33-0 lead gradually got whittled down throughout the 2nd half. But it was telling in the first half that the Colts weren’t scoring because of their offense they scored only one touchdown on offense one on special teams one on defense and then a bunch of field goals. Once the Vikings stopped making mistakes, they were able to score touchdown after touchdown while the Colts’ offense was pretty much playing the same which wasn’t all that good to begin with which led to the bad beat of not just the week but the year. 

WEEK 16 BETS

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ New England Patriots

After losing in embarrassing fashion last week to the Raiders the Patriots are coming into this game needing to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. But the Bengals have been on a roll winning six straight. In that loss to the Raiders, Mac Jones was awful, completing less than 50% of his passes and only gaining 112 yards. They had to lean heavily on their run game with Rhomondre Stevenson but the Bengals have a top-10 rush defense and will be able to contain him if they don’t see Mac as a threat. The Patriots have had problems with play calling all year especially situationally as they are one of the worst teams in Red Zone efficiency. This is due to having a defensive coordinator calling plays for the offense which is why they will not be able to keep pace with Bengals’ explosive weapons offensively led by Joe Burrow. The Bengals are the best in the NFL ATS at 11-3 and 6-0 during this win streak. 

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs

This past week, the Chiefs struggled in a back-and-forth battle with the one-win Houston Texans as they were 14-point favorites on the road and just won by 6 in overtime. I think this Chiefs team is vulnerable in spots against the Texans it was their turnovers that killed them but their pass defense struggles as well. The Seahawks with Geno Smith should be able to take advantage of that being a top-10 passing team in the league despite not having a lot of success recently. I believe Kenneth Walker will be able to have a much better game not having to face the 49ers’ defense. The Chiefs are not a good team ATS, just 5-9 this season. They have only covered in one home game this year and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. The Seahawks may not win on the road in Kansas City but they can certainly cover a big 10-point spread. 

Washington Commanders (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers

I am mostly going with trends and my gut on this pick. As we saw last week there was a huge lean toward the underdogs as well as a slight lean in away teams and the Commanders fit both those categories. The 49ers have been leaning heavily on Christian McCaffery as he had 26 carries and 8 targets against the Seahawks. Washington is pretty good at stopping the run. At times you see where Brock Purdy has made some rookie mistakes and eventually, they’re not going to be able to cover up those moments and he will be exposed. I think they could have won the game against the Giants without the turnovers and if they can take care of the ball in this game, they can keep it close with Niners. Washington is 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games. 

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers

The team in the NFC that has been a really hot team is the Detroit Lions winning 5 out of their last 6 games. The Panthers who had been playing better lately lost to Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers. The Panthers’ inability to run the ball was their biggest problem as that has led to having their most successful games. The Lion’s defense has been playing a lot better recently having held teams to less than 100 yards in the last 3 weeks. The Lions have been great ATS at 10-4 and 7-0 in their last 7 games. Both teams are still trying for a playoff berth but I think the Lions can at least win by 3. 

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (+9)

It is going to be a cold and extremely windy day on Saturday for this game. We saw last time when the Bills played on a cold windy day against a running team how that ended up. It was against the Patriots and Josh Allen had a hell of a time trying to complete passes as the Pats just grinded out the game and ran the whole time. I think the same can happen here with the Bears being the best running team in the league they can just do what they do and grind this one out. I think the weather can limit the Bills’ offense while the Bears can keep it close. The Bills are just 2-6 in their last 8 against the spread so I like the Bears to cover.

If you want a more in-depth look at this week’s picks, watch the YouTube video below.