Best Bets for Week 15 of the 2022 NFL Season | Betting the NFL | LGRN

WEEK 14 RECAP

Week 14 Record: 1-4
Overall Record: 34-33-3

MY BEST PICK

New York Jets (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Final Score: Buffalo 20-12

My best pick was my only win of the week and I just barely got it by just a point and a half. I relied on big spread in divisional matchups going the underdogs’ way. Both defenses got after it with the Jets holding the Bills to just 232 total offense and the Bills bringing the heat on Mike White just pummeling him even knocking him out of the game at one point. The Bills had 4 sacks on the day. The difference in this game was the Jets fumbling it twice. Even though they had more yards and 9 minutes more of time of possession the turnovers killed them but they were still able to cover the spread and that’s all I needed.

MY WORST PICK

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Final Score: Jacksonville 36-22

I feel like a junkie who has hit rock bottom with my bad habit of betting on the Titans for the last 3 weeks and each week they have lost all those bets. Need to go to rehab to kick this betting the Titans habit. I was confident in the fact the Jaguars have such a terrible record on the road. That definitely backfired on me after last week where it worked out for me. It is extremely hard to overcome 4 turnovers for any team. Henry had a pretty good game rushing for 121 yards but had two bad fumbles. The Jaguars got a lot of pressure on Tannehill which force him into two turnovers himself. Trevor Lawrence had another good game and has been paying very well in recent weeks. In this game he was 30/42 for 368 yards and 3 touchdowns and somehow Evan Engram had a great day with 11 receptions 162 yards and 2 touchdowns. But just like against the Eagles the Titans stopped the run with Etienne only having 32 yards on 17 carries but it didn’t matter because their pass defense has been so bad. I’m going to kick this habit and not betting the Titans anymore. 

FAVORITES

• Straight Up
  • Week 14: 8-5
  • Overall: 129-77-2
• Against the Spread
  • Week 14: 5-8
  • Overall: 88-113-7

HOME TEAMS

• Straight Up
  • Week 14: 7-6
  • Overall: 111-86-2
• Against the Spread
  • Week 14: 6-7
  • Overall: 89-117-2

OVER/UNDER

• Week 14: 7-6
• Overall: 90-116-2

BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams (+6, ML +235)

Final Score: Los Angeles 17-16

We have to go all the way back to Thursday Night Football for this one. The Los Angeles Rams were 6.5-point dogs at home which was fair considering that they didn’t know who was starting at quarterback. Also coming into the game, the Raiders had won 3 straight games. After being claimed off waivers on Tuesday with just 2 days with the team Baker Mayfield came into the game after one drive the Rams went 3 and out on. It did not start too well for him the Rams were down 16-3 in the 4th quarter. Then Baker turned it around leading 2 touchdown drives. One of them was 17 plays 75 yards and the game-winning drive that started at their own 2-yard line with 1:45 left in the game. They went 98 yards in 8 plays to take the lead. The Raiders were never able to put the game away largely due to Carr having an awful game 11/20 137 yards and 2 interceptions. They mostly ran it with Jacobs which was leading to field goals which kept the Rams in it and led to the upset of the week.

LARGEST COVER ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Final Score: San Francisco 35-7

Rookie Brock Purdy was making his 1^st start against old-ass Tom Brady and the Bucs. He had played well the previous week and they were at home which is why they were favored. He played pretty well scoring 3 total touchdowns but they ran the ball majority of the time and let McCaffery take the game over. The 49ers’ defense was able to frustrate Brady all day. He had to throw 55 times and was forced into 2 interceptions. After a missed field goal on their first drive, the Bucs had 3 straight 3 and outs and the 3 straight turnovers. All this resulted in the 49ers taking a 35-0 lead. I think the Niners showed they can be a good bet going forward even with Brock Purdy at quarterback.

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ Denver Broncos

Final Score: Kansas City 34-28

We have seen multiple examples of divisional matchups throughout the season where big point spreads do not go in the way of the favorite. But if you still took the Chiefs minus the points then I think you felt pretty good about cashing in with them up 27-0. Then Mahomes all of a sudden decides to get reckless with the ball and throws 2 interceptions on back-to-back drives which the Broncos scored a touchdown off of. The Chiefs are up 34-21 going into the 4^th quarter and they let Russell Wilson who has been awful all year score the most points they have scored all season and make a final of 34-28 to make what looked to be an easy win for the Chiefs’ bettors into the bad beat of the week. 

WEEK 15 BETS

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Despite coming off a divisional loss to the Lions, I like the Vikings at home laying the points. Whatever little spark the Colts from Jeff Saturday’s first win against the Raiders has fizzled out by now having a bye last week. The last time we saw the Colts was on Sunday night giving up a 33-0 4^th quarter to the Cowboys. The Vikings have scored 20-plus points to cover the spread. Kirk Cousins playing an early game will definitely benefit them. The Colts are just 2-5 in the last 7 games ATS. The Vikings are 7-0 against AFC opponents ATS. Even though the Vikings have played a lot of one-score games this season I think they can roll in this one. 

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills

I feel like I am on repeat, but these divisional games with big point spreads, especially between two winning teams, will favor the underdog. The Dolphins got the win in their last mostly because they were able to the Bills out of the end zone in the 2^nd half. I think the Bills win the game this time because they are at home and probably should have won the last matchup but I believe it will be another close game that the Dolphins will cover the spread. The Bills are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. 

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Good teams bounce back from bad performances and I do believe the Cowboys are a good team that will do just that. The Cowboys have put up a lot of points since Dak came back from injury and have scored 24-plus points in every game. I think he will get the turnovers fixed and have a really good game as the Jags have the 30th-ranked pass defense. The Jaguars are just a very up-and-down team so even though they got a big win against the Titans they won’t carry the momentum just like they didn’t after the Ravens upset because they got blown out the next week by the Lions. The Jaguars just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games and 0-10 ATS against the NFC as well as 0-6 ATS against the NFC East. The Cowboys are 8-5 ATS this season which is near the top in the league. 

New York Giants (+4.5) @ Washington Commanders

Well, I was on the Heinicke train for as long as I could but they finally didn’t cover the spread in the last game against the Giants. I think these teams are extremely similar that’s why they tied last time. In a matchup this close I have to take the points, especially with these two teams fighting for a playoff spot on the line in this game. Last week’s trend was favoring the underdogs and road teams and overall, that has been the case throughout the season. The Giants are 9-4 ATS this season and 7-3 in the last 10 games. Ultimately, I think they just tie again and that would give me the win.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bengals are coming in this game winning 5 straight games where they have covered the spread in each one of those games. The Bengals have been one of the best teams in the league covering the spread with a record of 10-3 ATS. The Buccaneers are coming off a beat down by the 49ers and have their lead in the NFC South slipping away. Joe Burrow has been on fire while Tom Brady has been kind of the opposite. The Bengals have covered in each of their NFC South matchups. The Bucs are a terrible 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games ATS. Finally, they are 0-5 ATS against AFC opponents.

If you want a more in-depth look at this week’s picks, watch the YouTube video below.