Best Bets for Week 14 of the 2022 NFL Season | Betting the NFL | LGRN

WEEK 13 RECAP

Week 13 Record: 2-3
Overall Record: 33-29-3

MY BEST PICK

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (+1.5)

Final Score: Detroit 40-14

This was a blowout I was on the right side of. The Lions have been red hot and that just continued into this Jaguars game. Do not bet the Jaguars on the road they are now 1-20 in road games in their last 21 road games. The Lions were completely dominant on offense they did not punt. Goff threw for 31/41 340 yards and 2 touchdowns as he has good receivers with St. Brown leading the charge with 11 receptions 114 yards and 2 touchdowns. I knew the Jaguars would play down after getting the upset against the Ravens because that’s why they are a very inconsistent team that can’t take the momentum into the next game, unlike the Lions. It was bad from the start for the Jaguars as the Lions recovered a fumble on the 2^nd play of the game and never looked back.

MY WORST PICK

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Final Score: Philadelphia 35-10

I really didn’t think the Eagles would be able to stop Derrick Henry given that the Eagles have problems in the rush defense but that’s exactly what they did. Henry ran for less than Tannehill only getting 30 yards on 11 carries. I was right that the Titans would be able to stop the Eagles’ run game but it didn’t matter because the Titans’ secondary was so terrible. There were wide-open Eagle receivers all game long which led to Hurts throwing for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns. Both Brown and Smith totaled 13 receptions 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. It was just complete domination by the Eagles and that is what happens when the Titans can’t get their run game going.

FAVORITES

• Straight Up
  • Week 13: 11-3-1
  • Overall: 121-72-2
• Against the Spread
  • Week 13: 8-7
  • Overall: 83-105-7

HOME TEAMS

• Straight Up
  • Week 13: 9-5-1
  • Overall: 104-80-2
• Against the Spread
  • Week 13: 7-8
  • Overall: 83-110-2

OVER/UNDER

• Week 13: 7-8
• Overall: 83-110-2

BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, ML +114)

Final Score: Cincinnati 27-24

Once again Burrow gets the best of Mahomes and the Chiefs, beating them for the third straight time. I picked the Bengals because the Bengals had beaten them by 3 points in their previous two matchups last season and they again got the 3-point victory. The Bengals seem to know how to defend and frustrate Patrick Mahomes. He had mediocre numbers 16/27 223 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals were without Joe Mixon but Perine stepped right in very nicely by rushing 21 times for 106 yards. Joe Burrow was trying hard to make plays any way he could because he rushed 11 times for 46 yards and a touchdown. They got Jamarr Chase back from injury and he looked right back to form with 7 receptions for 97 yards. The biggest play of the game was Kelce fumbling when the Chiefs were up 24-20. The Bengals got it on a short field and went down and scored the touchdown to take the lead to get the upset of the week.

LARGEST COVER ATS

Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)

Final Score: Dallas 54-19

It wasn’t looking good for the Cowboys covering the large spread going into the 4^th quarter with a 2-point lead of 21-19. Then the Colts started throwing the ball which allowed the Dallas Cowboys defense to get after Matt Ryan and forced a lot of turnovers with the pressure they were getting. This led to one of the best 4^th quarters of all time outscoring the Colts 33-0. Malik Hooker was playing against the team that drafted and cut him which led to him having a great game getting 2 turnovers an interception and a fumble recovery he took back for a touchdown. The Dallas running game again did what it has been doing with a 220-yard game. Dak started off slow which he sometimes seems to have but then started to turn it on with 3 touchdowns.

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

Washington Commanders (-1.5) @ New York Giants (ML +114)

Final Score: 20-20

They say a tie is like kissing your sister but in sports gambling, a push is a little easier to swallow because at least you get your initial bet back. The bettors who bet the Giants and the points are the only happy ones here. Whether you took either team on the money line or took the Commanders minus the points like I did this game was very frustrating to watch. Once the Commanders tied the game up at 20-20 in the 4th quarter it was just punt after punt after punt all through overtime as well. These two teams are very similar both get lucky and have quarterbacks who do just enough to win the game in the end. To me, these factors canceled each other out. This time neither quarterback could make the winning play. This was a game Washington should have won because they had more yards both passing and rushing and dominated the time of possession 41 to 28 minutes. 

WEEK 14 BETS

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Bad habits are tough to kick and I have had a bad habit of taking the Titans the last 2 weeks which have lost. Though they are coming off a brutal beat down against the Eagles I am going to take them again in this game laying the points. The trend leaned toward the Favorites ATS and I think that will continue this week so I will be heavy on the favorites this week. As I mentioned earlier and last week the Jaguars are awful on the road as they 1-20. I like the Titans to bounce back after an embarrassing loss as good teams usually do. After being held up last week I think Derrick Henry will want to come out ready to make up for it. The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games and the Titans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

New York Jets (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills

I have talked about this before about being careful with these big spreads between 2 winning teams in a divisional matchup. It has not favored the favorite. Even though the Jets are coming off a loss they took the 10-2 Vikings down to the wire. In these last 2 games, Mike White has played pretty well. In their last matchup earlier in the season the Jets did exactly what they do which is run the ball and play good defense. The defense was able to force 2 interceptions from Josh Allen and 0 touchdowns. Allen was only successful at running the ball in that game. I think the Bills being at home will get them the win this time but I think it will be another close game where the Jets will cover the spread. The Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games and Buffalo is just 2-4 ATs in their last 6 games.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions

Though I have been high on the Detroit Lions in recent weeks where they have been red hot that was as a scrappy underdog in every game. Now the Lions are the favorite which is a whole other story. The Vikings are the better team and yet they are the underdog. I like that the oddsmakers are giving the Lions respect for their recent success but this is not the week for that. The Vikings just have too much firepower for a defense that has been better but still is not very good. In the last matchup, the Vikings were able to run and pass on the Lions with ease and I feel like that will happen again. The Vikings are 5-1-1 in their last 7 games ATS.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

The Carolina Panthers just don’t have much left in them at this point in the season. With multiple changes at the quarterback position with the latest going to Sam Darnold. The Seahawks had some problems with the rams but I think that was largely because of the injuries to their running backs. I think Walker will play although he is questionable. But even with those injuries, Geno Smith threw for 367 and 3 touchdowns. Both Metcalf and Lockett went over 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Tariq Woolen has been great at getting interceptions and I think he will be able to cause some problems for Darnold. Seattle has a good home-field advantage as they are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys (-16)

Now I don’t normally do this, picking a team with this large of a point spread, even for my Dallas Cowboys. But that is how confident in my Cowboys because of the disparity in this matchup. This is extremely lopsided with the talent compared to what the Texans have. The Cowboys have scored 40-plus points in 3 out of their last 5 games so they are capable of covering this spread. They have been number 1 scoring since Dak came back from injury. The Texans have one good player Dameon Pierce and if the Cowboys contain him the Texans have nothing else to go to. The Cowboys have done this with the run game and the Texans have the worst rush defense in the league. The Texans do not have a good offensive line and I think Micah Parsons and company will have a field day getting after whoever starts for the Texans whether it is Mills or Allen. Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and the Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. 

If you want a more in-depth look at this week’s picks, watch the YouTube video below.