Best Bets for Week 13 of the 2022 NFL Season | Betting the NFL | LGRN

WEEK 12 RECAP

Week 12 Record: 2-2-1
Overall Record: 31-26-1

MY BEST PICK

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (+9.5)

Final Score: Buffalo Bills 28-25

My belief in momentum pays off for me once again. I liked the way the Lions were playing coming into this game. They looked like the team Dan Campbell wanted and though it wasn’t enough to get the outright win they easily covered a very large spread at home. This game came down to the wire and the Lions put up their best effort against a team that is a lot better than them. Goff played well getting it to St. Brown often for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Bills were just too much for them with Allen and Diggs which got them down the field easily to kick the winning field goal.

MY WORST PICK

Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

Final Score: Las Vegas 40-34

Really not sure what happened here maybe the Seahawks are finally coming back down to earth with 2 straight losses. They had everything going for them they were at home coming off a bye against a Raiders team that is not a good team. Somehow the Raiders shut down Kenneth Walker as he only had 26 yards rushing even though he did get 2 touchdowns. Josh Jacobs on the other hand had an amazing day which included the game-winning 86-yard touchdown run in overtime. Overall, he ran 33 times for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was a big upset considering the Raiders are not a great road team and the Seahawks have such a good home-field advantage. I would have trouble betting on the Seahawks going forward as they seem to be on the downslide so I would suggest a wait-and-see approach. 

FAVORITES

• Straight Up
  • Week 12: 11-5
  • Overall: 110-69-1
• Against the Spread
  • Week 12: 7-8-1
  • Overall: 75-98-7

HOME TEAMS

• Straight Up
  • Week 12: 12-4
  • Overall: 95-75-1
• Against the Spread
  • Week 12: 10-5-1
  • Overall: 87-84-6

OVER/UNDER

• Week 12: 8-8
• Overall: 76-102-2

BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4, ML +172)

Final Score: Jacksonville 28-27

All 4 of the Ravens’ losses have come in the fashion of having a lead of 9 points or more in the game and falling apart in the end. This was one of the most crushing losses as it could also have been the bad beat of the week. The Ravens were covering the spread with about 4 minutes left in the game and needed their defense just to make a stop. Lamar had an inaccurate day throwing only completing 50% of his passes. As a team, they ran for 162 yards with Lamar having the bulk of that. Trevor Lawrence had a great 29/37 321 yards 3 touchdowns. He had to do that because the Ravens completely shut down their run game. Zay Jones had a hell of a day with 11 receptions and 145 yards, especially on the game-winning drive. But this happens when you play a team that has nothing to lose, they will go for the win instead of playing for overtime and they converted the 2-point and pulled out the upset of the week. 

LARGEST COVER ATS

Chicago Bears @ New York Jets (-4.5)

Final Score: New York 31-10

It turned out to be the right decision to bench former starting quarterback Zach Wilson for Mike White. He was getting another chance to start and he made the most of the opportunity to play against a very poor Bears defense. He threw for 22/28 315 yards and 3 touchdowns. They had to rely on him on offense because they already had Breece Hall out for the season and lost Michael Carter during the game as well. The Bears were not able to give much resistance due to not having Justin Fields in the lineup. Trevor Siemian could not do much with the offense when it is based on Field running ability. On top of that Herbert is on injured reserve and then Mooney goes out as well. This was an inevitable ass-kicking considering how banged up the Bears were and they aren’t very good when they’re healthy anyway. 

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

Final Score: Dallas 28-20

Everyone who bets a favorite hates the late-game backdoor cover. This was the classic example of that happening. The Cowboys were up 15 points about to go up 18 points with 1:13 left in the game. Brett Maher who has been really good this season misses a very manageable field goal. The Giants get the ball back with a minute left and of course, that is enough time for them to score a meaningless touchdown. One of the things that helped that drive going was an inexplicable unsportsmanlike penalty that I have still yet to see footage of that anything actually occurred. The Giants scored and cut the lead to 8 which misses the cover by just 2 points and led to the bad beat of the week. 

WEEK 13 BETS

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)

Taking into account both these teams standing in their respective divisions there is only one of them that has a chance to win the division. With that said I am taking the team that still has something to play for because the Atlanta Falcons have a chance to take the lead in the NFC South with a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As a 1.5-point underdog, all they need to do is win the game at home in Atlanta. Kenny Pickett is still trying to find his way he has more interceptions than touchdowns so far in his young career. Also, Najee Harris is questionable for this game. Mariota has been up and down but I think his running ability can be a little bit of a problem. I am just going to lean toward the team that has more to play for as a home dog. 

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

This is just a plain and simple bad matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles. They like to run the ball a lot which their offense is based around with both Hurts and Sanders running it. But they are going up against a very good run defense with the Tennessee Titans having the number 2 rush defense in the NFL. On the other side of things, the Eagles have problems stopping the run and they will have to deal with Derrick Henry running it down their throats. Despite the loss against the Bengals the Titans have still been great against the spread covering 8 of their last 9 games. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (+1.5)

Even though the Detroit Lions took the loss to the Bills they put up a hell of a fight against one of the best teams in the league. I think this team has a lot of fight still left in them despite their record because of the kind of motivation they get from their head coach Dan Campbell. I think the opposite for the Jaguars getting a big upset win they will come down from this week. I feel the Lions are a more consistent team with the way they play and the Jags are more up and down. I think it helps to get 10 days off from playing on Thanksgiving and getting back-to-back home games. Even with the win last week they are still a bad team ATS going 2-6 in their last 8 games. The Jags are a horrible 1-19 straight up in their last 20 road games. Detroit has been good the last 5 games going 4-1 in that stretch.

Washington Commanders (-1.5) @ New York Giants

This is an easy one for me because I have said for weeks now, I am not getting off the Heinicke train until it derails. It has not derailed yet and they have covered each game since. Brian Robinson is running really well lately getting 105 yards this past game against the Falcons. If they can rely on the run game then Heinicke has shown he can make the plays to win the game in the end. The Giants have a ton of guys injured especially in their receiving corps and their secondary where you don’t even know who is on the field half the time. The Giants’ main and only weapon hasn’t been good the last 2 weeks running for just 61 yards total. They are going up against a defense who do not allow many rushing yards. They have lost 2 straight games and it seems their luck has finally run out. Washington has been an excellent at ATS in their last 7 games going 6-0-1.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

The Bengals have won the last 2 matchups between these two teams. One was last year in the regular season and the other was in the AFC Championship game. In both games, the Bengals were underdogs and won the game by 3 points. I think this trend continues especially with the Bengals being the home team getting points. It looks like both Mixon and Chase will be back for this game which should put the Bengals at full Strength weapons-wise. The Chiefs’ defense can definitely be exposed by Burrow and company as they are 26^th in passing defense. Kansas City is bad against the AFC covering the spread as they are just 1-7 in their last 8 games. The Bengals are great ATS in their last 9 games going 8-1.

If you want a more in-depth look at this week’s picks, watch the YouTube video below.