Best Bets for the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL Season | Betting the NFL | LGRN

WILDCARD WEEKEND RECAP

Wildcard Record: 5-0
Overall Record: 47-44-3

MY BEST PICK

Miami Dolphins (+13.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Final Score: Buffalo 34-31

Once again, the trend hits with a double-digit spread in a divisional game between 2 winning teams. I thought I was in trouble after the Bills went up 17-0 but I just had to remember I had 13.5 points. The Dolphins started to chip away at the lead with 3 straight field goals. Josh Allen just started making terrible throws getting picked off twice. This led to the Dolphins only down 3 going into halftime and they even took the lead 24-20 early in the 3rd quarter. But a bad decision to throw it deep on 3rd and 19 at their own 8-yard line cost them the lead and from there the Dolphins were not able to catch up. I thought they would cover considering how the last 2 matchups were and even with a 3rd string rookie quarterback. The Bills just struggled with the Dolphins this season which led to a win for me.

BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK

New York Giants (+3, ML +140) @ Minnesota Vikings

Final Score: New York 31-24

The frauds that are the Minnesota Vikings were exposed this past weekend by the Giants. Most people did not believe in this team throughout the season as they were probably the worst 13-win team ever. They were just really lucky to win all the close games they had throughout the season. The Giants may not have the same firepower on offense but definitely have a better defense and coach. Daniel Jones stepped up big time in his first playoff game as he went 24/35 301 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also had 17 carries for 78 yards. He targeted Hodgins a lot which paid off because he got 8 receptions for 105 yards and one touchdown. Kirk Cousins comes up small again in these standalone games. He ended the game by throwing a check down on 4^th and 8. The Giants will look to get another upset by going up against Philly in the Divisional Round. 

LARGEST COVER ATS

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Score: Dallas 31-14

Even I was scared to take this game, that’s why it was not one of my picks last week. I was just nervous about never beating Brady, not winning a road playoff game in 30 years, and not playing very well toward coming into this game. But we bounced back from the awful performance against Washington to a dominant performance on both offense and defense. Dak had the best game of his career going 25/33 305 yards and 7 rushes for 24 yards and a touchdown. He was just playing like the best version of himself running and passing the ball. The defense was able to put pressure on Brady which forced him into mistakes and a ton of inaccurate throws. They chose not to run the ball which was a bad decision considering the Cowboys have trouble stopping the run. The score would have been worse if Maher could make an extra point. The Cowboys look good going into the divisional round against a very tough 49ers team.

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

Final Score: Jacksonville 31-30

This was the 3^rd greatest comeback in playoff history. It started so badly for Trevor Lawrence with his first pass intercepted. Then he proceeds to throw 3 more in just the first half. The thing was even though the Chargers were getting all these turnovers, they did not always capitalize on them as they kicked a field goal after one and punted after another. Another key to their comeback was the Jaguars scoring right before halftime which kept it a 3-score game as well as giving them momentum going into the second half. Then Lawrence just goes off in the second half throwing 4 touchdown passes and leading the game-winning drive to kick the field goal. You would think up 27 points that your bet is safe but that was not the case in this game. If you had the Chargers –2.5 you knew you were dead when the Jags went for 2 to make the score 30-28. But if you had the Chargers on the money line then you still had a good chance as they got the ball back with 5:25 left in the game but right away they go 3 and out and proceed to let the Jags go 61 yards converting a fourth down that would have ended the game which all led to the bad beat of the week.

DIVISIONAL ROUND BETS

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

If the Jaguars didn’t get off to such a bad start right off the bat on the second play of the game, I think they could have won more convincingly. I thought they were the better team they just need to avoid the turnovers going into this game against the Chiefs. This is a better team than the 3-win team they were when they first played the Chiefs. I think they have the ability to score quickly and frequently as we saw in the Chargers game. Mahomes and the Chiefs will be able to get theirs, but I believe Lawrence will be able to keep pace. Late down the stretch of the season, the Jags have been excellent ATS going 5-1 in their last 6 games as well as covering last week. They may not win but I definitely think they can cover an 8.5-point spread. The Chiefs haven’t been good all season ATS going 7-10 this season and 2-4 in their last 6 games. They are just 2-11 ATS against AFC opponents. 

New York Giants (+7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Coming off the big upset against the Vikings the Giants are looking good and have some momentum going into this divisional matchup. I have said it all season long and it worked once again last week with divisional games with big point spreads favoring the underdog. This is the only matchup with two teams in the same division of the weekend and has a pretty big spread. Daniel Jones had his best performance last week and if he can bring that to Philly that will give the Giants a great chance to win outright. He is running the ball really well right now. He ran for 78 yards this past week and along with Saquon Barkley getting it into the endzone, I think they can take advantage of Philly’s rush defense. The Eagles are coming off a bye week with Jalen Hurts still dealing with his shoulder injury. In his first game back in week 18, he did not look good. He couldn’t run the ball because he was protecting his shoulder and was inaccurate as he had 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. I think the Eagles come in a little rusty which will let the Giants jump on them early and if they can get a lead on them, they can hang with the Eagles enough to cover the 7.5-point spread. The Giants have been great ATS in their last 5 games going 5-0 also 8-1 in their last 9 road games ATS. The Eagles have been bad ATS in their last 5 games going just 1-4 in that span.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5) @ Buffalo Bills

I had the Bengals in the last matchup that was canceled, and I am going to take them again for a lot of the same reasons. Outside of Josh Allen, the Bills cannot really run the ball with running backs as they only had 48 yards for Singletary and 39 yards for Cook against the Dolphins. The Bengals have the 7th best-rushing defense in the league so I believe they will have trouble running the ball once again. This will force it to be all Allen to make things happen which hasn’t always worked out for them. He threw 2 really bad interceptions that allowed the Dolphins back in the game. There is no reason they should have been in a back-and-forth battle with the Dolphins. Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense just got too much talent for the Bills’ defense to handle. The Bengals have been great in their last 15 games ATS going 12-3 and they are coming in with a 9-game win streak. The Bills are a mediocre 8-8-1 ATS this season.

Dallas Cowboys (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers

When the Cowboys play like they did on Monday night they are capable of beating anybody. They had one of their best performances of the seas as Dak had the best game of his career. They definitely play up to their competition and have shown throughout the season that they can stack wins together. I think at some point Brock Purdy will start making some rookie mistakes as he has not faced a defense like the Dallas defense with the pass rush and has not faced someone like Micah Parsons. They can put pressure on the quarterback as well as turnover the ball as they have led the league in turnovers the last two seasons. They can force this rookie into bad balls that will lead to interceptions. Ceedee Lamb has been playing awesome this season and will be able to take advantage of some of their weaknesses in the secondary. The Seahawks had the lead at halftime and if Geno Smith hadn’t started making mistakes in the second half, I think they could have been more competitive. We played a clean game against the Bucs with no turnovers and if we can do that again they can cover the 4-point spread. 

If you want a more in-depth look at this week’s picks, watch the YouTube video below.