It wasn’t the blowout that many were expecting nor the line it was suggesting it to be but even with an ankle injury, Patrick Mahomes made the throws to stay ahead in the game, but not enough to cover the spread. Two crucial turnovers, a fumble at the Kansas City 9-yard line, and an interception at the 50 kept the Jaguars from winning this game. The closest they got was 20-17 but they kept it close enough with a late field goal that got the late backdoor cover which ended up being a bad beat for those who were laying the points with the Chiefs.
MY WORST PICK
Dallas Cowboys (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers
FinalScore: San Francisco 19-12
This was a rough one for me both betting-wise and personally, this was a complete disappointment. The Cowboys had the early lead, but two costly interceptions were the difference in the game. Dak Prescott did not have a good game he wasn’t helped with no running game and Pollard going out of the game. The only player making plays for the Cowboys was Ceedee Lamb. Brock Purdy wasn’t doing anything special on the other side, but Kittle made the for him which ultimately won the game for them. They were able to win it on their 2nd to last drive as they ran it on a worn-down defense that had been playing well all game and shutting down the 49ers’ offense for the most part. Both defenses played excellent games, but one offense was a little better than the other and didn’t turn over the ball.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals (+5) @ Buffalo Bills
Final Score: Cincinnati 27-10
As a preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, a lot of predictions and futures picks were ruined as the Bengals got a dominant upset victory on the road against the 5-point favorite Buffalo Bills. I feel validated because the Bills lost this game for the very reasons I thought they would. I said that they would not be able to run the ball on this defense and it would be all on Josh Allen to make plays. That is exactly what happened when the Bills ran for a total of 63 yards which led to Allen throwing 42 times completing just 25 of them for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception as they scored just 10 points. On the Bengals’ side of things, Mixon ran for over a hundred yards while Burrow spread it around to his receivers and overwhelmed the Bills. The Bengals move on to face the Chiefs who they have very recent success against.
LARGEST COVER ATS
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Final Score: Philadelphia 38-7
This was a bad beating right from the start. It was just a complete mauling by the Eagles’ offensive line as they ran all over the Giants for 268 total rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. There wasn’t any rust from the bye week like I thought there might be which would give the Giants a chance to jump on them early. The Eagles came out ready from the start with a big pass to Davonta Simth and a touchdown pass to Dallas Goedert on the first drive of the game. The Eagles had complete control of the game going up 28-0 at halftime. The Eagles’ defense was all over Daniel Jones all game, they sacked him 5 times, and was not able to run effectively with only 6 carries for 24 yards. They only gave the ball to Barkley 9 times. The Giants just had inferior talent on almost every level and position and just were not good enough to compete in that game.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS BETS
San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
I am going with the 49ers and the points in this one. I do not believe the Eagles will be able to run like they did against the Giants. The 49ers are the 2nd ranked rushing defense in the league. This will put it on Hurts to make big plays for their offense and we have not seen that in the playoffs yet because he didn’t need to last week or wasn’t able to last year. The 49ers have enough playmakers on their offense to cover up the flaws and inexperience of Brock Purdy which can be enough to win the game. I think they can counter the Eagles’ pass rush with their offensive line. The 49ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games and undefeated with Brock Purdy as their starter. The Eagles are just 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs
With Mahomes’ ankle injury that finds him questionable for the game, I think he will be much less effective if he plays and won’t be able to run or throw out of the pocket and make the spectacular throws that he is used to making. This might force the Chiefs to run more, and the Bengals are very good at stopping the run as a top-10 rushing defense. The Chiefs’ defense definitely can be exploited in the passing defense by Joe Burrow who has had plenty of success against them. Joe Burrow is 3-0 SU against the Chiefs covering the spread in each of those games. The Bengals are 13-3 in their last 16 games ATS and are on a 10-game winning streak. The Chiefs are not good ATS just 2-5 in their last 7 games and are 7-11 for the season.
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Caleb Ochoa
Caleb Ochoa is one of the co-hosts of Good Friends, Better Rivals and Betting the NFL on the Let’s Get Ready Network. He is a diehard Dallas Cowboys fan and can be found on Twitter @nflcaleb22.
