Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend of the 2022 NFL Season | Betting the NFL | LGRN

WEEK 18 RECAP

Week 18 Record: 3-2
Overall Record: 42-44-3

MY BEST PICK

New York Giants (+14) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Final Score: Philadelphia 22-16

Even though I thought the Giants might play their starters and they did not, I still felt good with getting 14 points. The whole season I have been talking about these types of matchups favoring the underdog and it hit once again. The Giants’ backups played hard and never gave up even after going down 19-0 to the Eagles they slowly fought back. They finished their final 2 drives of the game with touchdowns which was good enough to cover this large spread. In Jalen Hurts first game back from injury he did not play well 20/35 229 yards 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. He couldn’t even get his rushing going as he only had 13 yards on 9 carries. They struggled to score as they only had one touchdown in the game and the rest was all field goals. The Giants will go into the playoffs with a little bit of rest as they look to get an upset on the Vikings.

MY WORST PICK

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Final Score: Detroit 20-16

I thought the Packers had all the momentum and everything they needed to win this game. They were at home, they were playing better on defense and they figured out that they are better when they run the ball more. The defense played fairly well in this game as they held Goff to 23/34 224 yards and no touchdowns. They held Jamal Williams to 72 yards but they could not stop him when they needed to as he scored 2 touchdowns. I also thought that they would run the ball a lot better Every team runs on the Lions and with the 2 good backs that they have they only ran for a combined 81 yards. Rodgers played pretty much how he has played all season but they need him to get back to what he was at least just for a series or two. The Lions were even eliminated before the game started. Both are now out of the playoffs and the Seahawks are in. 

BIGGEST UPSET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders (+7.5, ML +270)

Final Score: Washington 26-6

With still a chance to win the division and get a better seed in the playoffs, the Cowboys didn’t rest their starters but the results certainly looked as though they did. It was such a terrible game for Dak, probably the worst of his career 14/37, 128 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. It was such a struggle just to complete a pass. The receivers were not able to get open and they were not catching the ball. The Cowboys kept putting the defense in bad spots with the turnovers. If the Commanders were not starting their 3rd string quarterback this game could have been even worse than it was because, with all the chances they had, they did not really take advantage. The Cowboys could not run the ball, and the offense had multiple injuries which caused it to shift around which led to a poor outcome. The Cowboys go into the playoffs not playing their best football. 

LARGEST COVER ATS

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Final Score: Pittsburgh 28-14

The Steelers were not only fighting for the last remaining spot in the playoffs but Mike Tomlin was also trying to keep his streak alive of never having a losing season. They needed the Dolphins and the Patriots to lose and only one of those happened. Therefore, they were eliminated but Mike Tomlin gets yet another winning season. They were able to win by two touchdowns just the way I thought when I picked them with their defense containing Chubb to just 77 yards and pressuring Watson in which they sacked him 7 times. They force Watson into two interceptions and the Browns’ receivers were not able to be effective. They ran the ball a lot and Pickett may have been inaccurate but he made enough plays to get the job done and cover the spread by 11.5 points.

BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

Houston Texans (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Final Score: Houston 32-31

Up 31-24 with 3:33 left in the game the Colts just needed to make one stop to win the game and cover the spread. The Texans get all the way down to the Colts’ 28-yard line with 50 seconds left on the clock. It was 4^th and 20 and Davis Mills throws up a hail mary that goes right through the defenders’ hands into the hands of the TE. Even though losing this game would have gotten them the number 1 overall pick in the draft, they decided to go for two and try to win the game in regulation rather than go into overtime. They go right back to the TE and covert it which led to the Colts getting a bad beat to end their season.

WILDCARD WEEKEND BETS

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-10)

Though Geno Smith started the season off red hot he has gradually cooled off towards the end of the season. In 3 of the last 4 games, the Seahawks have failed to score 20 points. In their last game in which they had to win to get into the playoffs Geno threw 2 picks, one of them was on the very first play of the game. They struggled against a bad Rams team and it took until overtime to score just 19 points and finally win the game. They are going against the best defense in the league that is number in scoring defense. In the last two games, the 49ers won both those games in which they were able to shut the Seahawks’ running game down. Kenneth Walker became totally ineffective. The 49ers have the number 2 ranked rush defense in the league and will be able to shut the Seahawks down once again. Christian McCaffery has been a great addition to this offense in both the running game and passing game. He is a big reason for Brock Purdy playing so well. Brock Purdy has not lost a game since he became the starter and he isn’t going to start this week. The 49ers are great ATS going 7-1 in their last 8 games and 5-0 at home ATS. Seattle has been bad in their last 8 games going 1-7 ATS. 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (ML +110)

The point spread is low enough to just go with the money line in this game that is why I am going with Jaguars straight up. I like the home underdog in this one. I am not a believer in this Chargers team especially not their coach as he makes way too many questionable decisions and is the reason the Chargers lose close games. Since being 5-5 through 10 games of the season they were able to go 5-2 the rest of the way. But how did they do that? They did it with a really easy schedule down the stretch. They beat the Cardinals by a point, lost to the Raiders, beat the Dolphins, beat the Titans, beat the Colts, beat the Rams, and lost to the Broncos. So, they beat just one playoff team and it was the worst playoff team the 7 seed in the AFC. I think they are closer to the .500 team they started as than winning a team. The Jaguars started 3-7 through 10 games and went 6-1 down the stretch but beat the Ravens and the Cowboys including the rival Titans twice one of them for the division. I think they have had a harder road to get in the playoffs and are a hotter team than the Chargers. I believe both quarterbacks will play well but I think the difference will be in the run game. I think Travis Etienne will be able to run on the Chargers as they have the 27th-ranked rushing defense. The Chargers do not run the ball well as they are 30th in rushing. Also, west coast teams have problems when they travel across the country to the east coast. The Jaguars went 5-0 in their last 5 games and 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against AFC opponents. 

Miami Dolphins (+13.5) @ Buffalo Bills

I am going with what has happened throughout the season with these divisional matchups with big-point spreads. The underdog has covered the majority of the time. The Dolphins won the 1st matchup and the Bills won just by 2 points in Buffalo in the last matchup. We now know Tua will not play in this game but I think the Dolphins’ run will be more important because Raheem Mostert was able to run all over the Bills’ defense the last time going for 136 yards. The Bills also haven’t figured out how to stop Jaylen Waddle as he had over 100 yards in both games. Outside of Josh Allen, the Bills’ running game hasn’t done much against the Dolphins it has been all on Allen to make plays for the Bills which is why they have had some trouble with the Dolphins. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 6-1 in their last 7 games against their Division ATS. I don’t think the Dolphins will win but will keep it closer than the spread suggests. 

New York Giants (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

If the Vikings weren’t so damn lucky winning close games, I would pick the Giants on the money line. But absolutely do feel that the Giants can get the upset against the Vikings.  I think the Vikings have been frauds all season they have been blown out twice and were blown out for a half against the Colts. The Giants should have won the last game against the Vikings. They just made too many mistakes and had too many dropped balls. It took a 61-yard field goal to beat the Giants. Both quarterbacks were able to have nice days but the Giants weren’t able to stop Jefferson and Hockenson. The Giants had more total yards and ran the ball better in the game. Barkley had 133 total yards and a touchdown. If Barkley can have another good game that will give the Giants the edge in the game. Kirk Cousins is just 1-3 in the playoffs. If the Giants can get pressure on him, they can force him into mistakes and he gives you the ball. The Vikings have the 2nd worst passing defense and the 20th-ranked rushing defense. The Giants have been great against the spread going 13-4 this season and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games but also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 2-8-1 ATS last in the last 11 against NFC opponents.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

It is still up in the air whether or not Lamar Jackson will play in the game. I definitely don’t know if he will be 100% even if he does play. He hasn’t played in 6 weeks. The Bengals are entering this game on an 8-game win streak. The Ravens won the first matchup as the Bengals were still getting their offense together but in the last 8 games, they have been on fire. If Lamar Jackson does not play then we just saw what that will look like last week as the Bengals won by 11 points and the Ravens’ quarterback play was pretty terrible. I just don’t think the Ravens with their lack of weapons on offense can keep up with the Bengals’ offensive fire power. I think Joe Burrow is definitely playing well enough to take advantage of the Ravens’ passing defense that is ranked 24^th in the league. The Bengals are great ATS all season going 12-4 and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Baltimore is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC North opponents. 

If you want a more in-depth look at this week’s picks, watch the YouTube video below.