It was another crazy week in the NFL as there were some big upsets, some insane field goal games, and some big blowouts. Whether it was the Raiders continuing to love overtime wins, the Chargers making a big statement and winning on the road in Kansas City as it was the biggest upset of the weekend being 7-point underdogs and winning by 6, or the Cowboys dominating on Monday night, Week 3 had a little bit of everything. There was a lot of good defense played as there were just 5 Overs to 11 Unders. This past weekend the favorites went 8-8 against the spread and 9-7 on the MoneyLine. Over the first three weeks of the season, the Over is just 20-28 as we have seen offenses struggle, especially the rookie quarterbacks who were a collective 0-5 against the spread in Week 3. Home teams have also had a hard time against the spread this season with a 20-27 record overall. I will be keeping an eye on whether these trends continue on in Week 4 or we start to shifts in the lines that will change these trends in the other direction.
The bad beat of the week came in the Dolphins @ Raiders game as Vegas, who were a 3.5-point favorite, were up 25-14 in the 4th quarter as they let Jacoby Brissett make a comeback and take it to overtime, which led to just a 3-point victory and not being able to cover the spread. As for my own picks, I am in a bit of a slump these last two weeks as I went just 2-3 which has made me a very even 7-7-1 overall. My worst play was taking Washington to cover a large 8.5 point spread and they lost by 22 points. Josh Allen had been struggling in the first two weeks and didn’t expect this would be the game he would be back to where he was last year. My best play was picking Arizona (-7.5) and they won by 12, though early on I was sweating it a little as the Jaguars had a brief lead. I will strive to get better and try to figure out where I am going wrong and adjust the strategy a little, but it’s still just a gamble and there will be highs and lows throughout the season.
Detroit Lions (+3) @ Chicago Bears
The Bears looked absolutely disastrous against the Browns as they allowed 9 sacks and scored just 6 points. The Bears’ offensive line was nonexistent as rookie quarterback Justin Fields got mauled by Myles Garrett and company. They are said to be considering all three of their quarterbacks to start against the Lions this week but it really doesn’t matter who is behind center if they can’t protect him. The Lions do not have the same defensive force as the Browns but they have had a lot of fight in them in their three losses. The Lions have been good against the spread as they are 2-1 this season as they nearly upset the Baltimore Ravens if it weren’t for a record-breaking 66-yard field goal. The Lions seemed to be better than their record shows as they have played teams with 2 wins each. I think right now they are better than the Bears and will be able to go to Chicago and come out with their first win. Even if they don’t, they will at least be getting three points and will hopefully be able to cover this spread.
Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Los Angeles Rams
This was a tough pick to make as both teams are 3-0 and it will be a difficult divisional rivalry game. Both teams can put up a lot of points as they each have a high-powered offense with some explosive weapons. I think they are very evenly matched which is why 5 points is a lot of points to be getting even on the road. I think the edge is found in the Rams’ Week 2 game against the Colts as they scored 24 points on the Rams and have only 16 points in each of their other two games against mediocre defenses. Matt Stafford had some problems in that game that showed he was still the guy from Detroit, just in a better situation in Los Angeles. The one struggle for the Cardinals was against the Vikings with all their litany of offensive weapons. I think the Stafford will have problems with Cardinals D and won’t be able to find Cooper Kupp as easily as he has been.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles looked really bad on Monday night as they got completely dominated by the Cowboys by 20 points. The Chiefs are coming off a tough divisional loss to the Chargers. But the loss was mostly due to dumb mistakes by the Chiefs as they fumbled the ball. Mahomes had some bad throws that got picked that he usually makes, and there were stupid penalties that led to the upset. I think if they can clean up all that nonsense, they can get back to winning. Their defense is still weak but as they did all last year, they can cover it up if the offense can get back on track and I think playing the Eagles is just the way to do that. The 7.5-point spread may be big but the way this offense can score, I don’t think it will be a problem considering the Eagles just gave up 41 points as well as they will be on a short week to get things corrected.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
Big Ben looks completely broken down and like he should have retired before the season. The throws he was making were awful and the way he was moving was like an old man trying to play quarterback. Aaron Rodgers on the other hand has looked like his old MVP self after his terrible Week 1 game. The Packers have put up 30 or more points in their last two games as the Steelers have failed to score more than 17 points in their last two games. I feel like the Packers will have no problem covering this spread due to the disparity in offense especially at home in Green Bay.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets (+7.5)
Now I understand this is going on a bit of a limb by taking the Jets. But seeing how my record has been the last two weeks I feel as though I need to take a big swing this week and hopefully it will pay off. Considering how bad Zach Wilson has played and how bad all the rookie quarterbacks have played overall, I get why you would question taking the Jets in this situation. The Jets have played three good defenses in the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos. The Titans have a very mediocre defense with over 30 points in their first two games. I think this can be the week Zach can somewhat settle in be able to get some success considering the Titans do not have the defensive backs that are jumping routes and getting interceptions often. Again, I don’t feel great about taking the Jets and don’t expect them to win but I do like a home underdog and as stated above the underdogs, in general, have been doing really well this season.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
