This week was a perfect example of why you do not overreact to week 1 of the NFL especially when betting. There were several teams that did not look good or played really well the first week then come out this past week and did a 180. These teams included the Bills, Bears, Bengals, Titans, and especially the Saints and Packers. Whether you were buying too much stock in how good the Saints looked or how bad the Packers looked based on week 1 you got burned as the Saints played awful and Aaron Rodgers got back on track against the Lions. I myself was guilty of this as I thought the Bengals were looking good and then they get stomped out by the Bears defense though they still managed to get a Push. Going into week 3, it will be difficult to navigate as there are several (1-1) teams and maybe you are not sure who certain teams really are. Are they the team from week 1 or week 2? As the season goes on teams will tell who they are with their play which will make it easier to figure out how to bet them. There is also a lot of questions at the quarterback position as there were multiple injuries where the quarterbacks had to be taken out of the game. You will have to keep a close eye on the injury report and I would generally stay away from placing a bet until you have confirmation as there could be large swings in the lines depending on which quarterback is playing.
Underdogs had another good week as they went 10-5-1 Against the Spread but only 5-11 on the Moneyline. It was an even 50-50 split on the over and under as they went 8-8 as well Road teams vs. Home teams going 8-8. Some bad beats of the week were the Cardinals (-4.5) not being able to fend off the Vikings rushing attack with Dalvin Cook and just winning by 1 when their defense looked so good in week 1 against the Titans and was able to handle Derrick Henry. Another one was the Seahawks (-6.5) who were up 30-16 in the 4th quarter and let the Titans come back and beat them for the upset. I did not do well this week as I was just 1-3-1 this week. I had a bad beat with the Rams (-4) who just missed covering winning by 3. My worst pick was picking the Steelers on the MoneyLine as I knew the Steelers’ offense wasn’t good and thought the Raiders were spent after their big win on Monday Night. My best play was my only win but I knew the wrong team was favored in the Cowboys/Chargers game as Dallas had the home-field advantage on the road in L.A. which had an impact on the game as the Chargers had a ton of penalties which led to their loss.
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Even though the Cardinals did not cover the spread last week I’ll take another stab at them this week. The Jaguars do not have the offensive weapons the Vikings have nor do they have a very good line to protect rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence who is still figuring it out throwing many attempts with not many results. Cardinals should be able to get after him as they did to Tannehill in week 1. The Jaguars were not able to cover a similar last week against a less explosive offense in the Broncos putting them (0-2) ATS to start the season.
Baltimore Ravens (-9) @ Detroit Lions
I usually don’t like to take so many big spreads like this but I think it is warranted this week for similar reasons to the Cards/Jags game because the Lions have not covered their spreads even with them getting a lot of points. They seem to have one good half and one bad half at least that’s what has happened in the first 2 games. The Ravens are coming off their big upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs which brings them to (8-2) ATS in their Last 10 games. I think the Ravens have a lot of momentum off that win and think their defense will show up to make up for giving up so many points against the Chiefs.
Green Bay Packers (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers
Evidently, the Packers look good when they want to show up and play football. Hopefully, that happens this week too as I will gladly take 4 points against the 49ers who gave up 33 points to the Lions in week 1 but did do well holding the Eagles to just 11 this past week. I’m betting on the former to be the real 49ers and week 2’s Packers to be the real Green Bay and they may not get the win on the road Aaron Rodgers and their offense should be good enough to cover the spread.
Washington Football Team (+8.5) @ Buffalo Bills
I’m not expecting Washington to win this game but an (8.5) point spread is too good to pass up with Taylor Heinicke looking kind of impressive on Thursday night even though it was against the Giants his play was still notable. Josh Allen has not looked as impressive as I thought he would when I picked him to win MVP before the season and though they scored 35 points against the Dolphins I think it had more to do with their own quarterback woes as Tua left the game with an injury. Washington has not lost by more than 8 points in their last 6 games which is why I think they will be able to cover the spread in this game.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-3)
I knew the Saints’ week 1 performance was not about how good they were but how bad Aaron Rodgers and the Packers played. Before the season I thought Jameis Winston and the Saints would be bad and though he played good in week 1 I knew it was a mirage and the real Jameis would show himself as he did against the Carolina Panthers. The New England Patriots had a bounce-back week after their week 1 loss to the Dolphins as they beat the Jets soundly in week 2. Mac Jones looked efficient didn’t make mistakes as long as he keeps that in this game all he has to do is let Jameis make the mistakes as Belichick will definitely make him do.
Odds from William Hill Sportsbook
