(The views expressed in this article are the views of the individual author and do not reflect the views of the Let’s Get Ready Network.)
They say defense wins championships and offense wins games. When betting the over/under on win totals I am only concerned with wins games part and in a division that is known for their defense, I will focus on which of these teams have done enough on offense to hit the over or not enough to pick the under. This division won a lot of games last year as three of the four teams had 10 wins or more and made the playoffs. The question is does the 17 game schedule force teams to win more games to be able to get in the playoffs. Another factor to think about is last year’s implementation of the extra wild card teams in each conference. 10 wins wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC. This is good to think about when you are betting how many games these 3 playoff teams from last year will win.
For 11 straight weeks, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoyed a pretty weak schedule as the only resistance coming from the Ravens and Titans within that span. Many questioned this 11-0 start with some saying is this the worst 11-0 team considering their strength of schedule during this time. That will not be the case this year as the Pittsburgh Steelers who finished first in their division will face a 1st place schedule and are 1st in Strength of Schedule for the upcoming 2021 season. The strength of schedule is reflected in Vegas putting out their win total at over/under 8.5 which is a big gap between their 12-win season last year. The odds come in at over –120/ under EV. Over and under on win totals are like most odds which are based on the public’s perception but public perception factors in some cases more than others. I think the reason why the favorite is the over is based on how the public sees their 12-win season and I think they can win at least 9 games based on that. Even though I think they haven’t done enough in the offseason through free agency or the draft to protect Ben Rothlisberger or open up holes for Najee Harris, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. With the 17-game schedule, 8 wins would be a losing season so taking the under would mean that you are betting Tomlin will have his first losing season as the Steelers head coach. That is why I will take the over because I just think the number is set too low and Mike Tomlin has proven that even with dysfunction, backup quarterbacks, and adversity he is at least able to get them to at least .500 or above. If the Steelers’ defense is able to stay healthy unlike the 2nd half of last season then I think they’ll be able to get to the 9 wins to hit the over. The Steelers are at +400 to win the division which is pretty good value considering they just won the division, if you are feeling risky, I say why not.
The entire AFC North has a rough schedule as each of the teams are in the top 10 in the strength of schedule. The Baltimore Ravens have the 2nd hardest strength of schedule. This comes after coming 2nd in the division and 11-5 record. They traded Orlando Brown to the Chiefs but signed Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva in his place. They signed WR Sammy Watkins and drafted WR Rashod Bateman as they are severely lacking some talent at the WR position. In the last two seasons, the Ravens have won 14 games and 11 games last season. Their over/under is set at 11 wins with the odds at over EV/ under –120. I’ll take the over in this case as don’t see any reason they can’t win as many games as they did last year especially with an extra game added to the schedule. At worst I will get a push at 11 wins and get my money back on this bet. They come in as the favorite to win the division with +120 odds. It may not be the greatest value bet but I do believe the Ravens will win the division and win a little money on this pretty safe bet.
After years of sadness, pain, and a whole lot of losing due to bad management, terrible draft picks, and no franchise QB, Cleveland finally had a reason to smile in the 2020 season. They finished with a 10-win season and a great upset win in the playoffs over their hated rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers. This has provided the Browns with a bright outlook of the future as there is much hope in the city of Cleveland that this recent success will continue into the 2021 season and beyond. Vegas has exploited this new hope in the Browns as they have the 2nd best odds to win the division at +145 and the win total is set as 10.5 wins with even odds at over/under -110. I however do not buy into any of this newfound optimism for the Browns. I’m going to keep with the same adage of the Browns are the Browns. Some franchises are just perpetual losers and I believe Cleveland is one of them. Though they had 10 wins last season they still came in 3rd in the division, they were not able to beat Chiefs after Patrick Mahomes got hurt and Chad Henne had to come in the game, and they have had a 10-win season before in ‘07 and 4-12 the next. Some teams do not know how to handle success, and as a Cowboys fan I know this fact all too well because seems every year we have a playoff year we don’t make it the next year. The Browns had a decent offseason as they added to a lackluster secondary with S John Johnson, CB Troy Hill, and 1st round draft pick Greg Newsome. I don’t think they really added any pass rush help with the signings of Jadeveon Clowney who has had a completely disappointing career and Tak Mckinley. There is a lot of turnover for teams who make the playoffs. I believe the Browns will be one of the playoff teams of last season that fall out of the playoff picture and I am betting the under hard. I am not a believer that you can sustain a winning culture when your quarterback is Baker Mayfield. I don’t think his attitude, leadership, or talent to continually get the Browns to the playoffs. I don’t think they have any chance of winning the division and think the odds should be reversed on the Steelers and Browns.
Early in the 2020 season, there seemed to be a spark in Cincinnati coming from Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow. Though they were not winning many games they were in some really tough battles with better teams and just coming up short in those games. But that spark was quickly put out when Joe Burrow tore both his ACL and MCL and was out for the remainder of the season. The Bengals finished last in the division with a 4-11-1 record. In the offseason, they lost Cincinnati favorites in AJ Green and Geno Atkins and a couple of solid starters in Shawn Williams and Carl Lawson. In free agency, they tried to replace those losses on the DL with signings of Larry Ogunjobi and Trey Hendrickson and draft pick Joseph Ossai out of Texas as well as some help in the secondary with Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton. To fill the hole left by AJ Green the Bengals drafted in the 1st round Joe Burrow’s old teammate at LSU in Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals win total for this season is at 6.5 with equal odds at over/under -110. With the uncertainty of the health of Joe Burrow and how well he will play coming off that terrible injury, I can’t see the Bengals getting to 7 wins. I think the under is the safer play here with odds being equal there is no extra value in betting the over. They are +2500 to win the division which is last in the division. I am not willing to take a flyer on that bet. The Bengals may be better than last especially if everything is good with Burrow but I don’t think they have a good enough roster to bet them to win a lot of games this season.
odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
